However, Agung Pribadi - Head of the Energy Ministry's Communication, Public Information Service and Cooperation Bureau - informed that a data reconciliation process at the ministry is the reason why coal output has been low so far in 2018.

The coal production figure of 319.08 million in the January-September 2018 period does not include all production data from IUP-holders (Izin Usaha Pertambangan or Mining Business License). Thus, once included, it might be that Indonesia's coal production has actually grown compared to 2017. After all, coal prices have made it attractive for coal miners to encourage production activities and sales. Over the past couple of months the government's benchmark coal price remained above the USD $100 per ton level.

Pribadi said the latest coal production figure involves output by those coal miners that are active under the longstanding Contracts of Work (Perjanjian Karya Pengusahaan Pertambangan Batubara, or PKP2B). Meanwhile, data from IUP-holders only run up to the end of June 2018. Thus, the 319.08 million coal production figure in the first three quarters of the year still misses the Q3 data from IUP-holders.

Recently, the Indonesian government raised its coal production target for full-year 2018 from 485 million tons to 506.9 million tons.

Hendra Sinadia, Deputy Executive Director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), added that the nation's coal production is set to grow strongly in the second half of the year. Besides the data reconciliation process, weather also caused some disturbances in coal production in the first half of the year.

Indonesian Government's Benchmark Thermal Coal Price (HBA):

Month  2017  2018
January  86.23  95.54
February  83.32 100.69
March  81.90 101.86
April  82.51  94.75
May  83.81  89.53
June  75.46  96.61
July  78.95 104.65
August  83.97 107.83
September  92.03 104.81
October  93.99 100.89
November  94.84
December  94.04
Average  85.9

 

Month  2012  2013  2014  2015
 2016
January 109.29  87.55  81.90  63.84  53.20
February 111.58  88.35  80.44  62.92  50.92
March 112.87  90.09  77.01  67.76  51.62
April 105.61  88.56  74.81  64.48  52.32
May 102.12  85.33  73.60  61.08  51.20
June  96.65  84.87  73.64  59.59  51.87
July  87.56  81.69  72.45  59.16  53.00
August  84.65  76.70  70.29  59.14  58.37
September  86.21  76.89  69.69  58.21  63.93
October  86.04  76.61  67.26  57.39  69.07
November  81.44  78.13  65.70  54.43  84.89
December  81.75  80.31  69.23  53.51 101.69
Average  95.5  82.9  72.6  60.1  61.8

in USD/ton
Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources

Indonesian Production, Export, Consumption & Price of Coal:

  2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Production
(in million ton)
 458  461  456  461  507¹
Export
(in million ton)
 382  375  366  364  361¹
Domestic
(in million ton)
  76   86   90   97  146¹
Price (HBA)
(in USD/ton)
 72.6  60.1  61.8  85.9     -

 

  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Production
(in million ton)
 240  254  275  353  412  474
Export
(in million ton)
 191  198  210  287  345  402
Domestic
(in million ton)
  49   56   65   66   67   72
Price (HBA)
(in USD/ton)
  n.a  70.7  91.7 118.4  95.5  82.9

¹ government target
Sources: Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) & Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources

Bahas