Concern about Indonesia's Q4-2018 current account deficit as well as the value of the rupiah exchange rate should increase now the country posted a big USD $2.05 billion monthly trade deficit in November 2018. It is the highest monthly trade deficit for Southeast Asia's largest economy since July 2013.
On Monday (17/12) Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released the country's latest trade data. It showed exports declined 3.28 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $14.83 billion in November 2018 (Indonesia's worst monthly export performance since June 2017). Particularly exports of palm oil, coconut oil, pulp & paper, and crude oil slumped. Meanwhile, exports of manufactured goods also plunged considerably.
In recent years, Indonesia's overall monthly trade deficits are traditionally caused by the fact that the country's oil & gas trade deficits are higher than the country's non-oil & gas surpluses. However, as we have seen more often in recent months, Indonesia's non-oil & gas trade balance also showed a deficit in November 2018.
In November 2018 Indonesia's oil & gas deficit was recorded at USD $1.46 billion (despite falling crude oil prices), the second-highest monthly oil & gas trade deficit in 2018. BPS stated that there occurred a 10.8 percent month-on-month (m/m) decrease in Indonesia's oil & gas exports to USD $1.37 billion. Meanwhile, the country's non-oil & gas deficit was USD $583.2 million in November 2018.
In the January-November 2018 period Indonesia now has to cope with a USD $7.52 billion trade deficit. This is in stark contrast to the USD $12.08 billion trade surplus in the same period one year earlier.
Detailed information about Indonesia's November 2018 trade deficit can be found in an article titled "Indonesia-EFTA Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) Signed, Will it Bring New Trade Opportunities?" that is included in the December 2018 edition of our monthly research report. You can purchase this report by sending an email to email@example.com or a WhatsApp (WA) message to the following number: +62.(0).8788.410.6944