Indonesia collected a USD $2.01 billion trade surplus in January 2024, which is the smallest surplus in six months (July 2023) for Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Key reason is that Indonesia’s non-oil and gas exports showed a relatively steep decline compared to non-oil and gas exports in the preceding month and in the same month one year earlier. So, Indonesia’s export performance remains under some pressure.

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On Friday 5 January 2024 Indonesia Investments released the December 2023 edition of its monthly report. The report informs readers on the latest -and in our opinion most relevant- economic, political and social developments in Indonesia.

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Although Indonesia enjoyed another comfortable trade surplus in November 2023, the surplus ranks among its weakest in 2023 as exports dipped, while imports were rather stable. The latest trade surplus, which is the country’s 43rd consecutive trade surplus, reached a value of USD $2.41 billion.

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Indonesia posted a strong USD $3.12 billion trade surplus in August 2023. It is the 40th consecutive month of trade surpluses for Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, an indication that global commodity prices (particularly coal and palm oil, which are the key non-oil and gas export items of Indonesia) remain at lucrative levels.

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In July 2023 we saw a relatively modest trade surplus for Indonesia at USD $1.31 billion, down heavily from USD $3.45 billion in the previous month when it was the weak import performance that allowed Southeast Asia’s largest economy to enjoy a wide trade surplus.

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On Thursday (07.09.2023) Indonesia Investments released the August 2023 edition of its monthly report. The report discusses a selection of key economic, political and social developments that were relevant in Indonesia in the month of August 2023.

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Indonesia’s Statistical Office (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) shared some great news on 7 August 2023. The agency announced that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2023. This was better than most forecasts, including our projection of 4.9 percent (y/y).

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On 7 August 2023 Indonesia Investments released the July 2023 edition of its monthly report, zooming in on various economic, political and social matters that were relevant in the month of July 2023.

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Last month, we were bracing for the first (monthly) trade deficit of Indonesia since April 2020 amid declining exports (in line with normalizing global commodity prices and subdued global economic growth) and elevated imports. However, this trade deficit didn’t arrive.

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On 6 June 2023 Indonesia Investments released the May 2023 edition of our monthly report. The report discusses key economic, political and social issues that impacted on Indonesia in the month of May 2023.

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Last month we warned that Indonesia’s trade performance could easily continue to contract in February 2023, thereby continuing the trend we have seen since August 2022. Moreover, February is a short month, and therefore it typically has trouble to compete with other months in terms of trade activity.

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On 06 February 2023, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) released the latest official gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia. The data were in line with expectations.

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In the second half of September 2022 the Indonesian rupiah experienced some steep depreciating pressures, nearly touching IDR 15,300 per US dollar. It prompted Bank Indonesia to step and intervene in markets to limit the currency’s decline; a step that typically leads to a drop in the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

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Both Indonesia’s export and import performance was quite amazing in March 2022. While we expected imports to rebound ahead of the start of the Ramadan month (on 1 April 2022), a month that typically gives rise to a big increase in consumption, we did underestimate Indonesia’s export performance in last month’s forecast.

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In January 2022 Indonesian Minister for Coordinating Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the Indonesian government aims to ratify the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement in the first quarter of 2022. Just like the Philippines and Myanmar, Indonesia is still to ratify the RCEP even though this agreement already took effect per 1 January 2022.

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According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), Indonesia posted a USD $4.37 billion trade surplus in September 2021. It is a slightly lower surplus compared to the previous month (when Indonesia posted its highest ever monthly trade surplus), but remains one of the highest surpluses in the history of Indonesia.

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Indonesia recorded another big trade surplus in July 2020. Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), the country's trade surplus reached USD $3.26 billion in July 2020, a huge improvement from the USD $280.1 million deficit it recorded in the same month one year earlier.

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For the second consecutive month Indonesia recorded a big trade surplus. According to the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), the country posted a USD $1.27 billion trade surplus in June 2020.

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On 5 May 2020 Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), a non-departmental government agency, released the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia for the year 2020. These data were highly anticipated as policymakers, analysts, and stakeholders are particularly interested in finding out to what extent damage has been done to the Indonesian economy by the self-imposed restrictions.

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In line with estimates, Indonesia’s trade balance showed another deficit in January 2020. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), a USD $864.2 million trade deficit was recorded in the first month of the year.

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