Coal exports from Indonesia are expected to decline in the remainder of 2014 as the Indonesian government implemented a new licensing system for domestic coal miners - the ‘Listed Exporter’ status (Indonesian: Eksportir Terdaftar, ET) - per 1 October 2014 in an effort to optimize monitoring of the coal mining industry (illegal coal shipments from Indonesia form a structural problem). This new legal framework has led to confusion among miners causing that not all miners have been able to obtain the necessary status to resume coal shipments.

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R. Sukhyar, Director General for Coal and Mineral Resources at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, stated that the country is plagued by structural illegal coal shipments from coal-rich regions in Kalimantan and Sumatra. Sukhyar estimates that each year between 30 and 40 million tons of coal is exported illegally from Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Based on current coal prices, this would imply that USD $1.2 billion worth of coal is shipped illegally per year causing the government to miss out on royalties.

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Indonesian coal production reached 213 million tons in the first half of 2014, a 7.6 percentage point growth from the same period in the previous year (198 million tons), as coal miners have been boosting coal output amid sluggish international coal prices. Approximately 75 percent of this output (158 million tons) was exported abroad. Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal producer and exporter. The country’s coal primarily consists of the medium-quality type (between 5100 and 6100 cal/gram) and the low-quality type (below 5100 cal/gram).

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Coal production in Indonesia stood at approximately 110 metric tons in the first quarter of 2014, thus little changed from the production volume in the same period last year. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that - despite the decline in coal prices - the first quarter result implies that a quarter of this year's production target, which is set at 421 million tons, has been achieved. Indonesia is one of the world's top producers and exporters of coal. This fossil fuel accounts for about 85 percent of the country's mining revenues.

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Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) Bob Kamandanu expects that Indonesia's coal production will decline about 5 percent to 400 million tons in 2014 after the government asked miners to scale back production rates in order to safeguard future domestic supplies as the country needs sufficient energy resources for its future energy supply. Amid low domestic demand, the government asked Indonesian coal mining companies to limit the country's total coal output at 397 million metric tons.

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In order to increase government revenues, the Indonesian government announced that, starting from 2014, coal miners that have a Mining Business License (Izin Usaha Pertambangan/IUP) will have to pay a higher royalty fee to the central government. The decision was made during a meeting between the government and Commission XI of the House of Representatives (DPR) this week. The new royalty policy, which was originally planned to be introduced this year, is expected to result in an increase of IDR 4 trillion (USD $408.2 million) in state revenues.

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Indonesia's coal production is projected to increase 4.4 percent to 400 million tons this year, up from the government's initial forecast of 390 million tons. According to Bob Kamandanu, chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (Asosiasi Pertambangan Batubara Indonesia, APBI), this growth will be spurred by increased demand from Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan in June. The coal price is expected to increase accordingly in the middle of the year.

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On Monday (11/05), it was announced that the reference coal price of Indonesia declined 5.2 percent (month-on-month) to an all-time low of USD $61.08 per metric ton in May. This benchmark price, which is set by the government each month based on the average of four coal indexes (Indonesia Coal Index, Platts Index, New Castle Export Index and New Castle Global Coal Index), continued to plummet due to the coal oversupply in combination with weak global coal demand (particularly falling demand from China).

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Concerns have arisen over the government's plan to increase royalties and export duties for coal. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) expects that this policy will lead to the closure of various coal miners while increasing acts of illegal mining. According to Bob Kamandanu, chairman of the APBI, 60 million tons of coal per year is not listed by any authority and thus can be labeled 'illegal'. Illegal coal mining also implies that the Indonesian government misses out on about IDR 5.6 trillion (USD $495.6 million) per year.

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