The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) reported that Indonesian consumers are becoming increasingly optimistic about economic prospects and their personal financial situation this year, evidenced by a 5.1 point rise in Bank Indonesia's Consumer Confidence Index to 112.6 points in January 2016. This index is based on a survey, involving 4,600 households in 18 cities across the archipelago (a reading above 100 indicates optimism, while a reading below 100 indicates pessimism).

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Indonesia's inflation rate rose 0.51 percent on a monthly basis in January 2016 according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). Suryamin, Head of BPS, said food products accounted for most of the inflationary pressures in the first month of the year. Inflation tends to have a peak in the months December and January due to Christmas and New Year celebrations when consumer demand for various products, including food items, increases (the other peak comes in the June-August period due to Islamic celebrations).

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Indonesia's inflation is expected to accelerate in January 2016 according to the country's central bank (Bank Indonesia). Bank Indonesia detected a spike in prices of several food commodities - such as shallots, chili, and beef - at the start of the year. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo told reporters that he expects the country's inflation rate to rise by around 0.75 percent month-on-month (m/m) in January. This would imply that inflation will accelerate to 4.38 percent on an annual basis (from 3.35 percent y/y in December 2015).

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Although global media focus on the vicious terrorist attacks that occurred today in Jakarta, the country's central bank (Bank Indonesia) made a surprise move by cutting its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent at the January policy meeting. It is a surprise as Bank Indonesia emphasized repeatedly that it is primarily focused on rupiah stability while - amid severe market volatility (due to economic turmoil in China) - the rupiah remains under pressure.

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Pada tanggal 10 Januari 2016, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari newsletter-nya. Newsletter gratis ini, yang dikirim ke pelanggan kami sekali seminggu, berisi berita baru yang paling penting dari Indonesia yang telah dilaporkan di website kami selama tujuh hari terakhir. Sebagian besar topiknya mencakup masalah ekonomi seperti analisis dampak perlambatan ekonomi Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) terhadap Indonesia, update inflasi, manufaktur, produksi minyak, perbankan syariah, dan banyak lagi .

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Angka inflasi Indonesia pada bulan Desember 2015 lebih tinggi dari yang diharapkan pada 0,96% pada basis month-to-month (m/m). Tingkat inflasi bulanan yang tinggi dikarenakan kenaikan harga makanan dan transportasi selama perayaan Natal dan Tahun Baru. Namun demikian, tingkat inflasi tahunan Indonesia jatuh ke level terendah sejak 2010 karena hilangnya dampak kenaikan harga bahan bakar bersubsidi pada bulan November 2014 dari angka inflasi tahunan, maka realisasi inflasi jatuh jauh di bawah target pemerintah (5%) dan kisaran target bank sentral (3-5%) pada tahun 2015.

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Tahun lalu Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 12,13% sehingga berakhir pada 4,593.01 poin pada 30 Desember 2015 di tengah ketidakpastian global yang parah akibat ancaman pengetatan kebijakan moneter di Amerika Serikat (AS) dan perlambatan ekonomi yang besar dari Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT). Hari ini, Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) akan memasuki hari perdagangan pertamanya di tahun baru. Apa yang kita harapkan dari kinerja saham Indonesia di Januari 2016?

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On 27 December 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as Indonesia's 8th economic stimulus package, inflation, how to set up a legal entity in Indonesia (for foreign investors), updates on Indonesia's coal, cocoa and geothermal industries, and more.

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Indonesian inflation may reach 2.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) only in full-year 2015, the lowest level since 2009 when inflation in Southeast Asia's largest economy was recorded at 2.78 percent (y/y). In recent years Indonesia's inflation has been volatile with peaks correlating with administered price adjustments (primarily fuel and electricity price hikes as the government is keen on limiting spending on subsidies). Another characteristic of Indonesia is that inflation is generally high (compared to advanced economies), which is in line with the higher economic growth pace (than that of advanced economies).

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Bank Indonesia, bank sentral dari negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara, mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) pada 7,50% pada pertemuan kebijakan di bulan Desember pada hari Kamis (17/12). Sementara itu, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) tidak berubah pada 5,50% dan fasilitas pinjaman di 8,00%. Ini adalah bulan kesepuluh berturut-turut Bank Indonesia tidak mengubah suku bunganya (pada bulan Februari 2015 bank sentral memangkas BI rate sebesar 0,25%).

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It came as a big surprise to us when the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on 19 November 2020 (the day it concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting) that it decided to cut its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent. Bank Indonesia also cut its deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 basis points to 3.00 percent and 4.50 percent, respectively.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to cut its benchmark interest rate ("BI seven-day reverse repo rate") by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75 percent at the two-day policy meeting on 19 and 20 February 2020.

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On Monday 1 July 2019 Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia’s latest inflation data. The data show that headline inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy eased to a level of 0.55 percent month-on-month (m/m) in June 2019, down from 0.68 percent (m/m) in May 2019 when price pressures peaked due to Ramadan and Lebaran celebrations. This period always gives rise to a significant boost in consumption, hence prices of foodstuffs peak. Meanwhile, people also tend to buy new clothes, bags and shoes because they want to look good at these celebrations.

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There is concern that the Indonesian government's plan to curb price increases of (non-subsidized) fuels in Indonesia will impact negatively on private investors' enthusiasm to invest in Indonesia's oil and gas industry. Earlier this week Arcandra Tahar, Deputy Minister at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, informed that the government wants to regulate prices of fuels in order to keep inflation in check.

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The number of people who live in poverty in Indonesia fell by 1.19 million individuals, per September 2017, to 26.58 million, from 27.77 million poor people in March 2017 (Indonesia's Statistics Agency releases poverty data twice per year, covering the situation in the months March and September). This is a significant decline and therefore constitutes a very good development. In relative terms, Indonesia's poverty rate fell 0.52 percent from 10.64 percent to 10.12 percent (over the same period).

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Rising commodity prices are good for the Indonesian economy because the country is one of the world's biggest commodity exporters. However, rising commodity prices will also make it more difficult for the government to keep inflation within its target range of 2.5 - 4.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018.

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Bank Indonesia is content seeing Indonesia's inflation pace at a rather mild rate of 0.22 percent month-on-month (m/m) in July 2017. Dody Budi Waluyo, Executive Director of Economic and Monetary Policy at the central bank, said low and stable inflation is a positive asset for the economy as it supports the rupiah exchange rate as well as the investment climate and safeguards people's purchasing power.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) maintained its benchmark interest rate - the 7-day reverse repurchase rate - at 4.75 percent at the policy meeting on 17-18 May 2017, a decision that is in line with analysts' forecasts. Bank Indonesia said the decision is consistent with its efforts to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability "by driving the domestic economic recovery process", while continue to monitor external threats stemming from US policy directions and geopolitical conditions, specifically in the Korea Peninsula, as well as domestic threats stemming from inflationary pressures and ongoing consolidation in the banking and corporate sectors.

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It is highly unlikely to see the continuation of deflation in April. Last month (March 2017) Indonesia recorded 0.02 percent of deflation, primarily on the back of easing food prices amid the big harvest season. This harvest season will continue into April and therefore we expect few (to none) inflationary pressures stemming from food products. However, administered price adjustments (specifically another round of higher electricity tariffs in March) will impact of April's inflation figure, while consumer prices may also start to feel the impact of the approaching Ramadan month.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark interest rate (seven-day reverse repo rate) at 4.75 percent at the April policy meeting (19-20 April 2017), while its deposit facility rate and lending facility rate stayed at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia considers the current interest rate environment appropriate to face global uncertainties as well as rising inflationary pressures at home.

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