On Tuesday (26/11), Bank Indonesia's mid rate depreciated 0.37 percent to IDR 11,765 per US dollar, which is the lowest level the currency has touched since March 2009. Main reason for today's decline is the government's US dollar-denominated bond auction yesterday (25/11) that fell USD $450 million short of its target. The bond issuance was negatively impacted by investors' concern about the looming scaling back of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program as US economic data improve.

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The Indonesian rupiah continued its downward spiral on Monday morning (25/11). The central bank's mid rate fell 0.14 percent to IDR 11,722 per US dollar. Last week, the rupiah fell amid negative market sentiments brought on by the result of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting. The result seems to indicate that it will not take long before the quantitative easing program will be wound down. Contrary to the Australian dollar as well as the Indian rupee, news about the forthcoming financial reformation in China is unable to the support the rupiah.

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Several analysts expect that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will raise its key interest rate (BI rate) again in the first Semester of 2014 in order to anticipate the winding down of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion stimulus program (quantitative easing). Currently, the BI rate is set at 7.50 percent but analysts say that the market should be prepared for a hike to 8.0 percent in the first half of 2014. Between June and November 2013, Bank Indonesia has already raised its benchmark interest rate from 5.75 to 7.50 percent.

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After experiencing slowing growth in recent months, Indonesian cement sales in October 2013 increased 7.9 percent (year-on-year) to 5.58 million metric tons according to data from the Indonesia Cement Association (ASI). As such, cement sales rebounded from the 5.3 percent growth (yoy) in the previous month. The October growth rate was mainly caused by increased cement demand from islands other than Java. In particular, demand from Sumatra rose significantly. Indonesia's second most populous island bought 1.15 million tons of cement.

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Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global rating agencies, affirmed Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at BBB- with a stable outlook. In a press release, the rating agency mentioned four key factors that led to the affirmation of the sovereign rating. These are: good policy management by Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government amid external pressures, relatively high economic growth, prudent fiscal management (resulting in low public debt), and a strong banking sector (confirmed by multiple stress tests).

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Concerns about the looming end of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion stimulus program (known as quantitative easing or QE3) in combination with the deteriorating domestic economy of Indonesia has caused Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) to plunge 1.95 percent in the first trading session of 13 November 2013. The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.28 percent to IDR 11,600 according to Bloomberg. These developments happen one day after the decision of Indonesia's central bank to raise the BI rate to 7.50 percent.

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Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), stated that the country's economy is expected to grow 5.7 percent in 2013. Bank Indonesia believes GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 to fall below the growth figure realized in Q3-2013 (5.62 percent). Martowardojo said that the government needs to continue measures to improve the country's exports, while trying to curtail imports of oil and gas as domestic demand for fuels remained high, even after the increase in prices of subsidized fuels in June 2013.

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Indonesia's foreign exchange (forex) reserves totalled USD $97.0 billion at the end of October 2013, up USD $1.3 billion from the previous month (USD $95.7 billion). Consequently, the current level of foreign exchange reserves is equivalent to 5.5 months of imports and the government’s foreign debt payment. Bank Indonesia considers the current stockpile of forex reserves adequate to bolster external sector resilience and is above international adequacy standards.

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Today (06/11), Statistics Indonesia announced that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.62 percent in the third quarter of 2013 from the same period in 2012. The result implies the continuation of Indonesia's slowing economic growth as Q3-2013 constitutes the fifth consecutive quarter in which the country recorded slowing economic growth. Previously, the government had already expressed its concern about the GDP growth figure in Q3-2013 because the current high inflation rate curbs household consumption.

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In anticipation of tighter US dollar supplies, the government of Indonesia is considering the issuance of euro-denominated bonds in 2014. This would be the first time for the government to issue bonds in the currency. Robert Pakpahan, head of the debt office within Indonesia's Finance Ministry, said that they are discussing both euro- and yen-denominated sovereign bonds, equivalent to USD $6 billion. The bonds will be used to cover the country's budget deficit, which is set at 1.69 percent of GDP or IDR 175.4 trillion (USD $15.5 billion) in 2014.

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Indonesian assets weakened on Friday (06/11) on expectation that US non-farm payrolls and US employment data would improve, suggesting that a Fed Fund Rate hike may occur in December 2015. Such expectations were correct. After Indonesian and other Asian markets had closed on Friday, the US Labor Department announced that October payrolls rose 271,000 (the largest increase this year), while the US unemployment rate touched a seven-year low at 5 percent. Furthermore, the average hourly earnings over the past 12 months climbed by the most since 2009.

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Karena tingkat inflasi Indonesia telah menurun menjadi 6,25% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) pada bulan Oktober 2015 dari 6,83% (y/y) di bulan sebelumnya, dan karena inflasi Indonesia akan semakin menurun secara mencolok di dua bulan terakhir tahun 2015 yang disebabkan oleh menghilangnya dampak dari kenaikan harga bahan bakar bersubsidi pada November 2014, bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) tampaknya memiliki ruang untuk memotong suku bunga acuannya yang relatif tinggi saat ini, sehingga memungkinkan akselerasi aktivitas ekonomi.

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Today (22/10), the World Bank released the October 2015 edition of its flagship Indonesia Economic Quarterly, titled "In Times of Global Volatility". In the report the World Bank states that despite current ongoing global uncertainties (caused by looming monetary tightening in the USA and China's economic slowdown), which make macroeconomic management difficult in the year ahead, pro-active government action could offset the negative impact and may help to boost growth.

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American financial services company Standard & Poor's warns that defaults by Indonesian companies are a serious threat over the next 18 months given their eroded balance sheets amid the country's current economic slowdown. The warning came after Indonesian mobile phone retailer Trikomsel Oke announced plans to restructure about USD $155 million worth of debt as it may not be capable to meet obligations indefinitely.

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Both Morgan Stanley and Moody's Investors Service have cast some negative perceptions on the condition of the Indonesian economy. First, American multinational financial services corporation Morgan Stanley released a report in which it stated that the recent rupiah rally will not last (Morgan Stanley maintains its year-end target of IDR 14,000 per US dollar). Then, global credit ratings agency Moody's criticized Indonesia's recently unveiled third policy package in which the government lowers energy prices for local manufacturers in a bid to support the industry.

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The government of Indonesia unveiled the last installment of a series of three stimulus packages on Wednesday (07/10). The first two installments had been unveiled last month. In general, these stimulus packages aim to boost economic growth of Indonesia (which has slowed to a six-year low) and restore investors' confidence in the Indonesian rupiah and stocks. When markets believed that the Federal Reserve would soon raise its key interest rate, Indonesia was plagued by severe capital outflows pushing the rupiah to a 17-year low.

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Pemerintah Indonesia mengumumkan paket kebijakan ekonomi September yang kedua pada hari Selasa (29/09). Paket ini diperkenalkan dalam rangka mendongkrak pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dan mendukung rupiah yang lemah. Pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia telah melambat menjadi level terendah dalam enam tahun terakhir pada 4,67% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di kuartal 2 tahun 2015, sementara rupiah telah melemah ke level terendah dalam 17 tahun terakhir terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Capital outflows dari Indonesia adalah akibat dari pengetatan moneter di Amerika Serikat (AS), rendahnya harga-harga komoditi dan lambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi global (terutama karena penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi Republik Rakyat Tiongkok).

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The central bank of Indonesia announced on Thursday (17/09) that it the country’s key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, while maintaining the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent and the lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. According to Bank Indonesia (BI) this decision is consistent with its efforts to push inflation towards the target corridor of 4±1 percent in both 2015 and 2016. In addition, the decision is also part of Bank Indonesia’s measures to anticipate possibilities of a Fed Fund Rate (FFR) hike.

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After a real roller coaster ride, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) climbed 0.35 percent to 4,446.20 points at the end of the trading week. The majority of key stock indices across the globe tended to strengthen on Friday after a week characterized by severe volatility amid concern about the economic situation in China.

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Although Indonesian stocks managed to rebound, the rupiah continued to depreciate against the US dollar today (25/08). However, rupiah weakening was limited as Bank Indonesia was closely monitoring and intervening in markets to support the rupiah. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.03 percent to IDR 14,054 per US dollar. As significant further rupiah weakening is assumed to seriously undermine confidence in the rupiah, the central bank’s intervention efforts are well received by investors.

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