Penjualan semen di Indonesia turun 25 persen menjadi 3.7 juta ton pada Juli 2014 dari 5 juta ton pada Juli 2013. Penurunan tajam ini disebabkan oleh libur Lebaran (atau Idul Fitri di mana umat Islam merayakan berakhir bulan puasa), waktu banyak kegiatan usaha bisnis dihentikan sementara, serta pemilu presiden yang diadakan juga pada bulan Juli 2014. Melambatnya penjualan semen juga disebabkan oleh menurunnya pertumbuhan ekonomi (5.12 persen yoy pada kwartal kedua 2014). Penjualan semen merupakan indikator utama kegiatan konstruksi (pembangunan infrastruktur dan properti).

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On Monday (04/08), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that the July 2014 inflation figure was 0.93 percent (month-on-month), considerably higher than the 0.43 percent of inflation in the previous month but significantly lower than the 3.29 percent inflation recorded in July last year (when inflation accelerated sharply due to higher subsidized fuel prices implemented by the government in June 2013). Head of BPS Suryamin stated that food prices contributed most to the July inflation pace, followed by instant food, drinks, cigarettes and tobacco.

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The pace of Indonesian inflation in July 2014 is expected to be in the range of 0.60 to 0.75 percent (month-on-month). If realized, this would be one of the lowest July inflation figures in recent Indonesian history. Traditionally, the month of July brings high inflationary pressures as consumers spend more on food products and other consumer goods as well as transportation amid the holy fasting month of Ramadan and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations (which also involves the mudik tradition).

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The Idul Fitri celebrations (also known as Lebaran) in Indonesia appear to take place in a safe and orderly manner. Idul Fitri is an important religious holiday for Muslims as it stresses the importance of unity for the Islamic community, and marks the end of the holy fasting month (Ramadan). Business comes to a near stand-still in Indonesia during these days, and Jakarta, the political and economic center of Indonesia, has become empty after millions of people went back to their hometowns ahead of Idul Fitri (this is known as the annual mudik tradition).

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Deputy Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), Mirza Adityaswara, expects that inflation in July 2014 will reach between 0.8 and 0.9 percent (month-to-month). If realized, this would be relatively mild inflation amid a month that is traditionally characterized by high inflationary pressures due to the impact of the holy Muslim fasting period (Ramadan) and Idul Fitri celebrations. In this period Indonesian consumers always increase purchases of food and other consumer products such as clothes and shoes.

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The annual mudik tradition has started in Indonesia. The term mudik refers to the exodus of Indonesian workers from the cities back to their hometowns ahead of Lebaran (the Indonesian name for Idul Fitri) which starts on 28 July 2014. Lebaran, a national holiday (from 28 July to 1 August), marks the end of the holy fasting month of Ramadan and is usually celebrated at people’s places of origin, implying that Indonesian cities become more-or-less deserted for one week. In the week up to Lebaran people start to mudik.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo expects that inflation in July 2014 will be under control. However, there are several factors that trigger inflationary pressures. These include the holy Islamic fasting month Ramadan and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations at the month-end, as well as higher electricity tariffs and the start of the new school season (inflation in July is traditionally higher than in other months due to seasonal factors). Martowardojo still believes that the year-end inflation target 3.5 to 5.5 percent can be achieved.

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The Indonesian government announced that the holy fasting month of Ramadan (1435 Hijrah) will start on 29 June 2014. This decision was made after the Ministry for Religious Affairs held an isbat (confirmation) meeting on Friday evening joined by various Muslim organizations. However, Indonesia’s second-largest Muslim organization, the Muhammadiyah, previously determined 28 June as the starting point of the Ramadan. This difference is due to a different method of determining the location of the moon.

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The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) expects that Indonesian exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and palm oil derivatives will increase between 10 and 15 percent to 11.29 million tons in the second half of 2014 from 9.82 million tons in the first half of this year. If achieved, then total CPO exports (and derivatives) from Southeast Asia’s largest economy in 2014 would be 21.11 million tons. Assuming an average CPO price of USD $895 per ton, these exports can be worth USD $18.89 billion in total.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri estimates that the trade balance of Indonesia may post an USD $500 million surplus in May 2014 amid improved performance of the country’s crude palm oil (CPO) exports, both in terms of price and volume (crude palm oil being one of the most important foreign exchange earners of Indonesia). Concern about Indonesia’s trade balance (and current account balance) had returned after Indonesia recorded an USD $1.96 billion deficit in the previous month.

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Inflation in June 2014 increased by 0.43 percent (month-to-month, mtm) in accordance with the traditional pattern ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. These occasions always trigger inflationary pressures as consumers increase spending. However, June inflation remains under control and is even lower than the historical average in June in recent years (0.56 percent mtm). On a year-on-year (yoy) basis, inflation stood at 6.70 percent, thus continuing the downward trend since the beginning of 2014.

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Despite Hong Kong’s falling Hang Seng Index (HSI), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) managed to climb 0.69 percent to 4,878.58 points on Monday (30/06). A number of reasons can be cited that positively influenced the performance of the IHSG. These are higher US Michigan Consumer Sentiment, positive forecasts for tomorrow’s release of June inflation and the May trade balance of Indonesia, declining global oil prices and the appreciating Indonesian rupiah exchange rate.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated considerably on Wednesday (25/06) after Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) said it would allow rupiah depreciation in an attempt to boost competitiveness of the country’s exports, while curbing imports. This strategy will have a positive impact on the country’s troubled trade balance. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency had weakened 0.67 percent to IDR 12,070 per US dollar by 14:30pm local Jakarta time.

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According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country's balance of trade in April 2014 recorded a deficit of USD $1.96 billion, after having recorded a surplus of USD $0.67 billion in March. The balance of trade performance in April 2014 was particularly affected by the country's non-oil & gas balance, which turned from a surplus into a deficit, whereas a lower deficit in the oil & gas trade balance was realized (compared to March 2014). Meanwhile, inflation in May 2014 was slightly higher at 0.16 percent (mtm) from the previous month.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.77 percent to IDR 11,766 per US dollar on Monday (02/06) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. From the start of trading the currency of Southeast Asia's largest economy immediately plummeted as market participants anticipated a trade deficit in April 2014. Last Friday, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced that it expects Indonesia to post a deficit in April, whereas earlier statements of the central bank had mentioned a slight surplus.

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Completely opposite to our expectations, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) managed to climb 0.57 percent to 4,862.02 points on Wednesday (07/05). The gain was unexpected as there were no clear factors that could provide positive market sentiments. Moreover, today's Asian stock indices were mostly down. Coincidence or not, tomorrow Bank Indonesia will announce whether its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) - currently set at 7.50 percent - will be changed or maintained.

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It was decided at the Board of Governors’ meeting (RDG) of Bank Indonesia on 12 September 2013 to raise the BI Rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, the rate on the Lending Facility by 25 bps to 7.25% and the rate on the Deposit Facility by 25 bps to 5.50%. This action forms part of the follow-up measures taken to reinforce the policy mix instituted by Bank Indonesia, which focuses on controlling inflation, stabilizing the rupiah exchange rate and ensuring the current account deficit is managed to a sustainable level.

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Although the holy fasting month of Ramadan and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations always provide a boost for national economic growth in Indonesia as domestic consumption tends to peak, analysts believe that it will not contribute significantly to the government's 6.3 percent GDP growth target this year. During Ramadan and Idul Fitri (known as Lebaran), Indonesian consumers generally spend more on food products, clothes, shoes, tickets for transport and hotels than in other months, and thus lead to increased economic activity.

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On the last day before a week-long holiday, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) rose by 0.36 percent to 4,640.78 points on Friday (02/08). Although it was a relative quiet trading day, the performance was in line with today's performance of other Asian indices as well as European and American indices on Thursday (01/08). Stocks in the country's basic industries sector provided most support to the rise of the index. The Asian market still felt the positive impact of the Federal Reserve's announcement that it will continue the quantitative easing program.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects that economic growth of Indonesia in 2013 will not meet the government's target as has been set in the revised State Budget (APNB-P). Last month, both government and parliament of Indonesia agreed on a revised GDP growth assumption of 6.3 percent. However, Bank Indonesia believes that, due to slowing domestic consumption and investments in the current global economic context, the growth is more likely to fall between 5.8 and 6.2 percent.

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