Today (06/11), Statistics Indonesia announced that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.62 percent in the third quarter of 2013 from the same period in 2012. The result implies the continuation of Indonesia's slowing economic growth as Q3-2013 constitutes the fifth consecutive quarter in which the country recorded slowing economic growth. Previously, the government had already expressed its concern about the GDP growth figure in Q3-2013 because the current high inflation rate curbs household consumption.

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Perry Warjiyo, Deputy Governor of Indonesia's Central Bank (Bank Indonesia), expects that the inflation rate in October 2013 will fall below 0.26 percent (which is the average October inflation rate since 2007). Warjiyo said that a survey of Bank Indonesia indicated that up to the third week of October, inflation had only reached 0.06 percent. Low inflation - or preferably deflation - is needed to curb Indonesia's current high inflation rate. In September 2013, annual inflation was recorded at 8.40 percent.

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Moody's Investors Service, one of the big credit rating agencies, stated in its 'Credit Analysis: Indonesia' report that - despite the ongoing current account deficit (which is considered to be structural) and a relatively shallow and volatile domestic capital market (which contributes to Indonesia’s reliance on external funding) - the agency is positive about Indonesia's outlook due to its growth prospects, narrow fiscal deficits and low public debt. Indonesian government bonds are rated at Baa3, which is Moody's lowest investment-grade status.

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Indonesia’s foreign debt was recorded at USD $257.30 billion in August 2013, a 0.9 decrease compared to foreign debt in July 2013 (USD $259.61 billion). On an annual basis (yoy), foreign debt growth in August was 6.6 percent, thus slowing compared to July’s growth of 7.4 percent (yoy). The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) considers that the slowing growth in the country's foreign debt is in line with the slowing growth of the domestic economy. Indonesia's GDP growth forecast has been revised down to below the six percent mark.

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The Rating and Investment Information Inc (R&I), a rating agency from Japan, kept Indonesia’s Sovereign Credit Rating at BBB- with a stable outlook. In their press release, R&I stated that the four key factors behind the decision are: (a) Indonesia’s capacity to achieve sustainable economic growth in the long term (at around six percent per year); (b) conservative fiscal management (causing a marginal fiscal deficit); (c) a sound banking sector; and (d) a low level of government debt.

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A senior official at Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) stated that the country's current account deficit is expected to ease to 2.5 - 2.7 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) by 2014. In the second quarter of 2013, the account deficit reached USD $9.8 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP in Q2-2013, an alarmingly high figure that has caused much concern among the investor community. This deficit is particularly brought on by a large deficit in the country's oil & gas sector in combination with strong domestic demand for imports.

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Indonesia’s economy continues to adjust, as weaker commodity prices, tighter international financing, and slowing domestic demand moderate the growth rate to 5.6 percent for 2013. This downward revision is discussed in the latest edition of the World Bank’s Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ). Further moderation of growth (at 5.3 percent) may be expected in 2014, with growth in high income economies firming but international market conditions likely remaining volatile.

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Today, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia's export and import figures for the month August 2013. Exports in August amounted to USD $13.16 billion, implying a 12.77 percent decline compared to exports in July 2013, or a 6.31 decline year-on-year. Imports in August 2013 amounted to USD $13.03 billion, a 25.20 percent fall compared to the previous month, or a 5.69 percent fall year-on-year. As such, Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of USD $130 million in August.

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Indonesia's construction industry, which accounts for about ten percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), is experiencing turbulent times as the sector is impacted upon by three issues, namely higher minimum wages, higher subsidized fuel prices as well as the depreciating rupiah (against the US dollar). Concerns have arisen that a number of projects cannot be finished due to these issues. Moreover, companies may feel forced to dimiss workers in order to keep a healthy financial balance sheet.

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Growth of Indonesia's foreign debt has slowed down in July 2013 according to data from Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia). Total foreign debt in July 2013 stood at USD $259.54 billion, a 7.3 percent increase compared to the same month in 2012. In June 2013, the year on year growth had been 8 percent. Bank Indonesia stated that it considers Indonesia's current foreign debt situation - both in the private and public sector - as healthy. Growth has slowed down as a consequence of the slowing national economy.

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Ace Hardware Indonesia, one of Indonesia's leading retail companies that is engaged in the markets of home improvement and lifestyle products, is expected to show modest (single-digit) growth in 2016. Same store sales growth is estimated to grow in the range of 8-10 percent year-on-year (y/y). This modest performance is caused by weak purchasing power in Indonesia amid sluggish economic growth and due to the fragile rupiah (against the US dollar).

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Hari ini, Bank Dunia menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari publikasi andalannya Indonesia Economic Quarterly berjudul “Reformasi di Tengah Ketidakpastian". Dalam edisi ini, lembaga yang bermarkas di Washington ini menyatakan bahwa kondisi global masih tetap tidak menguntungkan meskipun kondisi pasar keuangan telah stabil sejak Oktober. Sementara itu, Indonesia terkena dampak negatif dari kebakaran hutan dan kabut asap beracun akibat perbuatan manusia yang merugikan Indonesia kira-kira Rp 221 triliun (atau 1,9% dari produk domestik bruto negara ini) dalam waktu lima bulan.

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An Indonesian analyst says the Indonesian government needs to increase efforts to boost people's purchasing power in order to achieve the government's economic growth target of 5.3 percent in 2016. Household consumption in Indonesia accounts for about 55 percent of the nation's total gross domestic product (GDP) growth. As such, if purchasing power continues to weaken, then the economic slowdown returns. The analyst suggests the government should consider to cut personal and corporate income taxes, delay the electricity tariff hike for 900 VA households, and lower fuel prices.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) relatively high in order to safeguard Indonesia's financial stability in 2016 (instead of seeking accelerated economic growth through a rate cut). Despite easing pressures on inflation and the country's current account balance, Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that persistent global uncertainty (referring to the looming US Fed Fund Rate hike and China's slowdown) justifies the tight monetary stance.

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Indonesian car sales may rise up to ten percent (y/y) to 1.1 million vehicles in 2016, from an estimated 1 million this year, amid accelerating economic growth in Indonesia. Car sales in 2015 have been disappointing, declining 18 percent (y/y) to 853,008 units in the first ten months of 2015, due to people's weakening purchasing power. Sales in 2016 are expected to be boosted by sales of the low-cost green car (LCGC), which was introduced on the Indonesian market in late-2013, and the crossover utility vehicle, a car that has gained popularity recently.

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Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at BBB- (investment grade) with a stable outlook. The country's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default rating, the senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds, and Islamic certificates (sukuk) were all affirmed at BBB-. Meanwhile, the short-term foreign currency IDR was affirmed at 'F3', the country ceiling at BBB, and the outlook on the long-term IDRs are stable. Through the affirmation Fitch acknowledges Indonesia's ongoing commitment to structural reforms amid recent economic woes.

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Indonesian assets weakened on Friday (06/11) on expectation that US non-farm payrolls and US employment data would improve, suggesting that a Fed Fund Rate hike may occur in December 2015. Such expectations were correct. After Indonesian and other Asian markets had closed on Friday, the US Labor Department announced that October payrolls rose 271,000 (the largest increase this year), while the US unemployment rate touched a seven-year low at 5 percent. Furthermore, the average hourly earnings over the past 12 months climbed by the most since 2009.

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Performa perekonomian Indonesia di kuartal 3 tahun 2015 agak mengecewakan pada 4,73% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) yang sedikit di bawah perkiraan pasar pada 4,8% (y/y). Kendati begitu, sebagai catatan positif, pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia berakselerasi dari level terendah selama 6 tahun terakhir pada 4,67% (y/y) di kuartal sebelumnya. Tabel di bawah menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan kuartal 3 PDB Indonesia jarang melebihi pertumbuhan kuartal 2. Ini jelas merupakan pertanda yang memberikan harapan.

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Today (22/10), the World Bank released the October 2015 edition of its flagship Indonesia Economic Quarterly, titled "In Times of Global Volatility". In the report the World Bank states that despite current ongoing global uncertainties (caused by looming monetary tightening in the USA and China's economic slowdown), which make macroeconomic management difficult in the year ahead, pro-active government action could offset the negative impact and may help to boost growth.

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American financial services company Standard & Poor's warns that defaults by Indonesian companies are a serious threat over the next 18 months given their eroded balance sheets amid the country's current economic slowdown. The warning came after Indonesian mobile phone retailer Trikomsel Oke announced plans to restructure about USD $155 million worth of debt as it may not be capable to meet obligations indefinitely.

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