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On Wednesday (03/06/2020) Indonesia Investments released the May 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'in the Eye of the Storm', we focus specifically on the social implications of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on Indonesian society. Hence, unemployment and poverty are two topics that deserve specific attention.
On Tuesday (05/05/2020) Indonesia Investments released the April 2020 edition of its monthly update. In this edition, titled 'Bracing for Impact', we focus on the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis - and subsequent restrictions on social behavior and business - on the Indonesian economy and Indonesian society.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released its Q1-2020 gross domestic product (GDP) data for Indonesia on Tuesday (5 May 2020). According to the agency, the Indonesian economy expanded by 2.97 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2020. The result is well below forecasts, and considering the real impact of the coronavirus crisis (COVID-19) on the Indonesian economy is to occur in the second quarter, we expect to see a deep red number in Q2-2020 (possibly extending into the following quarter).
On Thursday (08/04/2020) Indonesia Investments released the March 2020 edition of its monthly update. In this edition, titled 'Coronavirus Panic Peaks Worldwide', we obviously focus on the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on the Indonesian economy and Indonesian society.
For the sixth straight month manufacturing activity in Indonesia remained in the red zone. It therefore was a very disappointing second half of 2019. Moreover, it raises room for concern about Indonesia’s overall economic growth in 2019.
For the fifth straight month manufacturing activity in Indonesia remained in the red zone, implying that the fourth – and last – quarter of 2019 is bound to be a disappointing quarter in terms of manufacturing activity (possibly becoming the weakest quarter in four years). And this is certainly not a good omen for Indonesia’s economic growth in Q4-2019.
On Thursday (5/12) Indonesia Investments released the November 2019 edition of its monthly update. The report aims to inform the reader of the key political, economic and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of November 2019 and also touches upon key international developments that made an impact on the Indonesian economy.
The economy of Indonesia expanded by 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2019. Although the pace was in line with expectations, it does lead to a more gloomy outlook than we had before.
In early September 2019 the World Bank released a report titled Global Economic Risks and Implications for Indonesia that paints a somewhat negative picture of Indonesia’s economic growth in the foreseeable future. The Washington-based institution noted that it expects Indonesia’s economic expansion to continue slowing up to (at least) 2022; from a realized growth pace of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018 to 4.6 percent (y/y) in 2022.
On Thursday (05/09) Indonesia Investments released the August 2019 edition of its monthly research report. The report aims to inform the reader of the key political, economic and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of August 2019 and also touches upon key international developments that impacted on the Indonesian economy.
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In Bank Indonesia's board of governors' meeting, which was held on Thursday (12/12), it was decided to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. This decision was in line with market expectation but was unable to support the Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah exchange rate. The lending facility and deposit facility interest rates were also maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. Bank Indonesia decided not to change the rate as Indonesia's inflation outlook for 2014 is still within target.
Rudi Wahyono, Executive Director of the Indonesian Center for Information and Development Studies (Cides), believes that Indonesia's economic expansion in 2014 will be divided in two stages: before and after the legislative and presidential elections. Before the 2014 elections, Wahyono expects that economic growth will be slightly lower at 5.7 percent compared to the period after the elections when growth is expected to hit 6 percent. Growth in the first half of 2014 will be less strong as investors are waiting for the election results.
ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the November 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:
Currently, one of Indonesia's main financial issues (and one which puts serious pressures on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate) is the country's wide current account deficit. According to data from Statistics Indonesia, Indonesia's current account deficit totaled USD $8.4 billion in the third quarter of 2013. This figure is equivalent to a whopping 3.8 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). Generally, a current account deficit that exceeds 2.5 percent of GDP is considered unsustainable.
With having more than 10,000 islands, Indonesia offers an unique natural scenery. The country contains all sorts of attractive options for tourism, including seas, beaches, mountains and much more. Not surprisingly, tourist arrivals in Indonesia continue to grow. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), released in early November 2013, the number of foreign tourist arrivals between January and September 2013 reached 6.41 million, an increase of 8.8 percent from the same period last year.
This week, a group of Dutch politicians and businessmen, led by prime minister Mark Rutte, will pay a four day visit to Indonesia. The aim of the visit is to smoothen bilateral relations and search for business opportunities between both countries. This Dutch group, which includes more than one hundred Dutch company delegates, forms the largest Dutch trade delegation that has visited Southeast Asia's biggest economy in the modern history. However, relations between the Netherlands and Indonesia are still complex today.
Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) was not able to continue its rebound. On Friday (15/11), the IHSG fell 0.73 percent to 4,335.45 points amid widespread profit taking. Foreign investors recorded net selling of IDR 193 billion (USD $16.9 million) on today's trading day. Moreover, investors are concerned about the impact of the higher interest rate of the central bank (7.50 percent), particularly on the property and banking sectors in the fourth quarter of 2013.
Despite rising concerns about the slowing pace of the Indonesian economy, the deputy minister of Finance Bambang Brodjonegoro reminded investors that Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2013 still constitutes one of the highest growth rates around the globe. Economic expansion in Q3-2013 slid to 5.6% in Southeast Asia's largest economy. With the exception of China (7.8% GDP growth in Q3-2013), Indonesia's growth continues to outpace growth in other emerging markets, such as Brazil (3.3%) and Turkey (4%).
Bank Indonesia decided to raise the BI rate by 25 bps to the level of 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate raised to 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. This policy was taken in light of the persistently large current account deficit amid widespread global uncertainty. Therefore, the decision was taken in order to ensure that the current account deficit is reduced to a more sound level and inflation in 2014 returns to around 4.5±1 percent, thereby supporting sustainable economic growth.
ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the October 2013 edition, a number of important issues that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt:
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