The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is optimistic about economic growth of Indonesia in the foreseeable future. In its latest report the Washington-based institution says Indonesia's solid economic policies and increased household consumption support strong growth. The stronger rupiah and low inflation have caused people's purchasing power to strengthen. This is a major positive boost for the economy as household consumption accounts for more than 55 percent of total economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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UBS Investment Bank is less positive about Indonesia's economic growth in 2017 compared to most other institutions. The global financial services company, with its headquarters in Switzerland, expects to see the Indonesian economy growing by 4.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017. Edward Teather, Senior Economist for ASEAN and India at UBS, says the year 2017 is a year of adjustment and balancing for Southeast Asia's largest economy, while the role of fiscal support toward GDP growth is also seen declining this year. He added that 2018 will be the year in which Indonesia should see strongly accelerating economic growth.

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Eric Sugandi, Chief Economist at SKHA Institute for Global Competitiveness (SIGC), believes household consumption will remain the main engine of economic growth in Indonesia in 2017, followed by the other engines, namely direct investment and government spending. Regarding household consumption, Sugandi says the middle class contributes significantly to economic growth of Southeast Asia's largest economy due to their robust consumption. Traditionally, household consumption accounts for between 55 and 58 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP).

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The World Bank released the January 2017 edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ), titled "Sustaining Reform Momentum", on Tuesday (17/01). In this report the Washington-based institution says Indonesia’s reforms to fiscal policy and the investment climate are expected to boost the local economy. Therefore, the World Bank maintains its economic growth rate for Indonesia in 2017 at 5.3 percent (y/y). However, it also emphasizes that Indonesia - like the rest of the international community - is also plagued by uncertainty in global economic policy and global financial market volatility.

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Rising private sector investment and strengthening commodity prices are the correct ingredients that can trigger accelerated economic growth in several Southeast Asian nations in 2017. In a report entitled "Global Economic Prospects: Weak Investment in Uncertain Times", which was released on Tuesday (10/01), the World Bank set its forecast for Indonesia's economic growth at 5.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017, followed by a 5.5 percent (y/y) growth rate in both 2018 and 2019, up from an estimated growth rate of 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016.

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Moody's Investors Services, one of the big three credit global rating agencies, expects to see Indonesian companies posting steadily growing corporate earnings in 2017. This projection is supported by Indonesia's accelerating economic growth. After experiencing an economic slowdown in the years 2011-2015, the Indonesian economy is expected to grow 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017, improving from an estimated 5.0 percent (y/y) growth in 2016 and a 4.8 percent (y/y) growth realization in 2015.

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In order to escape the middle income trap (and become a high income country), the government of Indonesia needs to raise efforts to enhance the development of an inclusive economy by reforming the education and technology sectors as well as by combating social injustice. With a "business as usual" approach the government will not succeed in escaping this trap, says economist Faisal Basri. Indonesian society is currently highly unfair as 1 percent of the population controls 50.3 percent of the nation's total assets.

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Credit growth in Indonesia improved in October 2016 after touching a low in the preceding month. In October credit growth in Indonesia was recorded at a pace of 7.4 percent year-on-year (y/y), reaching IDR 4,246.6 trillion (approx. USD $314.6 billion), accelerating from a growth pace of 6.4 percent (y/y) in September. This development is caused by Bank Indonesia's lower interest rates although the victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 US presidential election may have curtailed demand for credit due to the higher degree of uncertainty about future US political and economic policies.

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Bank UOB Indonesia expects the economy of Indonesia to accelerate to a growth pace of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017, from an estimated 5.0 percent (y/y) this year. Economic acceleration of Indonesia comes despite expected slowing global economic growth. Kevin Lam, President Director at Bank UOB Indonesia, stated infrastructure development and the government's economic policy packages will boost the economy and generate employment thus stimulating household consumption.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2016, down from a revised 5.19 percent (y/y) growth pace in the preceding quarter but in line with forecasts. BPS Head Suhariyanto said Indonesian economic growth remained subdued amid bleak and uneven growth in major trading partners. Secondly, slowing government spending realization and a cut in spending (to prevent Indonesia's budget deficit from widening too much) affected the GDP growth rate of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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In the revised state budget, Indonesia's government has lowered its forecast for tax revenue in 2013. Originally, the government expected to receive IDR 1,193.0 trillion (USD $122.4 billion) but the figure has been tuned down to IDR 1,139.3 trillion (USD $116.9 billion). Minister of Finance Chatib Basri stated that the forecast for tax revenue has been revised down by IDR 55.1 trillion, while the figure for export duties has been raised by IDR 1.4 trillion. Indonesia's tax-to-GDP ratio in 2013 has been changed to 12.11 percent from 12.87 percent.

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Although the United States continues its traditional focus on direct investments in developed countries, primarily in Western Europe, there has been a significant rise in US investments in Indonesia in recent years. Whereas US investments in the developed economies of Western Europe is mostly found in the financial sector and through holding companies, in developing Asia, the US is more focused on the manufacturing sector due to lower production costs. In the last two years, the US emerged as the second-largest investor in Indonesia after Japan.

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Positive American and European stock indices on Tuesday (14/05/13) made a good impact on Asian stock indices on Wednesday (15/05/13), including Indonesia's main index (IHSG) which is heading towards the 5,100 points line. Although many foreign investors were eager to sell their Indonesian assets, support from other Asian stock indices kept the IHSG within the green zone. At the end of the trading day, it stood at 5,089.88 points, a 0.16 percent rise.

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Cement consumption in Indonesia increased 8.6 percent to 18.11 million tons in the first four months of 2013. Demand was particularly supported by property and housing projects in the bigger cities of Indonesia. Another pillar of support was found in the development of various infrastructure projects (including those within the framework of the government's ambitious MP3EI plan). The Indonesian Cement Association expects this year's cement consumption in Indonesia to rise to 61 million tons in total.

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The economy of Indonesia is booming with gross domestic product (GDP) surpassing six percent on an annual basis. And the country's strong economic fundamentals are confirmed by increasing international attention. But within the context of this economic growth it is important to take a look at whether economic growth is shared by all segments of Indonesian society. If, for example, only the higher classes of Indonesia would benefit from the economic boom, it could give rise to social issues in the future.

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It is no secret that Indonesia's economy has been booming in recent years and is appearing more and more on the radars of foreign investors. In the 2000s it was the commodities sector that brought much profit for Indonesian companies that were engaged in the extraction of natural resources such as coal, palm oil, and rubber. The outbreak of the global financial crisis in the late 2000s, however, ended the commodities boom abruptly, while other sectors came to the fore as Indonesia's new gold mines.

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The upward movements of both American and European stock indices on Friday (03/05/13) provided good support for today's performances of indices in Asia, including the Indonesia Stock Index (IHSG). After having been hit hard for two consecutive trading day's, the IHSG rebounded despite foreign investors still selling off their Indonesian stocks. Others, however, use this momentum to hunt for stocks that are now considered cheap after last week's fall.

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International financial services company Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgraded its outlook on Indonesia’s BB+ rating from positive to stable as the agency assessed that Indonesia's reform momentum is fading and the external profile is weakening. The decision came as a surprise as Indonesia's government had just declared to reduce its massive spending on fuel subsidies starting from next month. These subsidies were the main reason why S&P had not upgraded Indonesia's credit rating to investment grade yet.

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One piece of evidence of international confidence in the Indonesian economy is the steady upgrades in the country's credit ratings by international financial services companies such as Standard & Poor's, Fitch Ratings and Moody's. In late 2011, Fitch Ratings was the first to reinstate Indonesia's investment grade status after a 14-year hiatus. In January 2012, Moody’s followed suit citing the country’s resilient economy. S&P may follow soon, depending on the fuel price hike issue.

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Foreign investment in Indonesia has maintained its steady pace in the first quarter of 2013. Ahead of next year's presidential and legislative elections, which trigger uncertainties about the future course of the country, foreigners have bought more Indonesian stocks in Q1-2013 than in the four quarters of 2012 combined. Moreover, foreign direct investments (FDIs) have increased by 27 percent (YoY) in Q1-2013 and show an interesting shift towards Indonesia's manufacturing sector.

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