Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati believes economic growth of Indonesia in 2017 can exceed the target that was set by the central government in the state budget. While the official target in the 2017 State Budget was set at 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y), Sri Mulyani expects to see the growth rate at 5.2 percent (y/y) on the back of rising consumption and investment, while she predicts an end to the trend of falling imports and exports.

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Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2016. Although the figure is higher compared to the revised 4.88 percent (y/y) growth pace that was recorded in the preceding year (hence effectively ending the nation's economic slowdown that occurred in the years 2011-2015), the slow pace of acceleration may disappoint part of the investor and analyst communities.

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UBS Investment Bank is less positive about Indonesia's economic growth in 2017 compared to most other institutions. The global financial services company, with its headquarters in Switzerland, expects to see the Indonesian economy growing by 4.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017. Edward Teather, Senior Economist for ASEAN and India at UBS, says the year 2017 is a year of adjustment and balancing for Southeast Asia's largest economy, while the role of fiscal support toward GDP growth is also seen declining this year. He added that 2018 will be the year in which Indonesia should see strongly accelerating economic growth.

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Rising private sector investment and strengthening commodity prices are the correct ingredients that can trigger accelerated economic growth in several Southeast Asian nations in 2017. In a report entitled "Global Economic Prospects: Weak Investment in Uncertain Times", which was released on Tuesday (10/01), the World Bank set its forecast for Indonesia's economic growth at 5.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017, followed by a 5.5 percent (y/y) growth rate in both 2018 and 2019, up from an estimated growth rate of 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016.

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Bank UOB Indonesia expects the economy of Indonesia to accelerate to a growth pace of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017, from an estimated 5.0 percent (y/y) this year. Economic acceleration of Indonesia comes despite expected slowing global economic growth. Kevin Lam, President Director at Bank UOB Indonesia, stated infrastructure development and the government's economic policy packages will boost the economy and generate employment thus stimulating household consumption.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2016, down from a revised 5.19 percent (y/y) growth pace in the preceding quarter but in line with forecasts. BPS Head Suhariyanto said Indonesian economic growth remained subdued amid bleak and uneven growth in major trading partners. Secondly, slowing government spending realization and a cut in spending (to prevent Indonesia's budget deficit from widening too much) affected the GDP growth rate of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Indonesia is expected to end the prolonged economic slowdown, finally, in 2016. Between 2011 and 2015 the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) continued to slide amid sluggish global growth, tumbling commodity prices and domestic changes (higher interest rate environment in 2013-2015 to combat sharply rising inflation as a result of subsidized fuel price reforms). In 2016 this prolonged slowdown will most likely end. Based on the latest forecasts, the Indonesian economy should expand by around 5.0 percent (y/y) this year, up from a growth pace of 4.7 percent in 2015.

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In its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, titled "Reducing Vulnerabilities", the World Bank stated that it projects Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016 and 5.3 percent (y/y) in 2017 mainly supported by rising private consumption, a relatively stable rupiah rate, fiscal support (including higher personal income tax threshold), and accelerating government spending. Overall, the World Bank expects growth in developing East Asia and the Pacific to remain resilient over the next three years.

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Regional development bank Asian Development Bank (ADB) has become slightly less optimistic about Indonesia's economic growth in the years 2016 and 2017, although the Manila-based institution emphasizes that Southeast Asia's largest economy remains growing at a healthy pace. In its latest Asian Development Outlook 2016 the ADB cut its forecast for Indonesia's economic growth to 5.0 percent (y/y) in 2016 (from 5.2 percent previously) and to 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2017 (from 5.5 percent previously).

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Although the economy of Indonesia will continue to face challenges in 2017, there are a couple of matters that give rise to optimism about accelerating economic growth. These were the conclusions drawn at the Entrepreneur Networking Forum that was held by Bank Tabungan Negara Pensiunan Nasional in Bandung (West Java) on Wednesday (14/09). Although expectations were recently revised down (due to government budget cuts), Indonesian economic growth is still set to rebound in 2016 after having experienced several years of slowdown.

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It was a welcome surprise when Indonesia’s Statistics Agency (in Indonesian: Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced in early August that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.27 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2018.

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Although overshadowed by the news of the devastating earthquake in Lombok, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released the official Q2-2018 gross domestic product (GDP) growth figure of Indonesia earlier today. The economy of Indonesia expanded 5.27 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2018. This growth pace exceeds our expectations although it is not enough to necessitate a revision to our full-year 2018 GDP growth forecast of 5.2 percent (y/y).

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There are doubts whether Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth can reach 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2018 as Indonesia is experiencing a couple of major challenges. Challenges include the global trade war, the fragile rupiah, Bank Indonesia's higher benchmark interest rate, the current account deficit, and political tensions ahead of the 2019 legislative and presidential elections. Currently, Indonesia Investments' forecast for Indonesia's economic growth is set at 5.2 percent (y/y) in 2018.

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The World Bank revised down its economic growth projection for Indonesia from 5.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.2 percent (y/y) for full-year 2018 amid the complex external environment: tightening monetary conditions, a potential global trade war, financial volatility, and geopolitical concerns. Such external factors put pressure on Indonesia's export performance, hence on domestic economic growth.

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In full-year 2017 the Indonesian economy expanded 5.07 percent year-on-year (y/y). Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Monday morning (05/02) that the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 5.19 percent (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2017. These figures show a mixed picture.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) said it will revise its outlook for Indonesia's economic growth in full-year 2017 after the Q3-2017 GDP growth figure - released at the start of the week - was well below expectations. Previously, Bank Indonesia set its economic growth target for Indonesia in 2017 in the range of 5.0 - 5.4 percent year-on-year (y/y).

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On Monday (06/11) Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia's third quarter GDP data, important information that is closely followed by investors and analysts. While most analysts expect to see accelerated economic growth in the third quarter, others remain skeptical as Indonesia's gross domestic product was disappointing in the first two quarters of the year amid bleak domestic consumption.

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The latest World Bank projection shows the economy of Indonesia remains promising despite the Washington-based institution having lowered its forecast for Indonesia's full-year 2017 gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.1 percentage point to 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the June 2017 edition of its Global Economic Prospect. The World Bank emphasized the Indonesian economy remains relatively strong and is among the most promising emerging markets.

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Overall, market participants are satisfied with Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2017. Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) released the nation's official first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday (05/05). It showed a 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth pace in Q1-2017, in line with - and even above some institutions' - expectations. Moreover, the figure confirms that Indonesia's economic growth continues to accelerate. In the first quarters of 2015 and 2016 GDP growth was recorded at 4.71 percent (y/y) and 4.92 percent (y/y), respectively.

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After Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said she expects Indonesia's gross domestic product growth at 5.1 percent (y/y) in full-year 2016, Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution is slightly more optimistic. Nasution puts his GDP growth projection at 5.2 percent (y/y) this year despite the government's spending budget being cut by IDR 137.5 trillion. According to Nasution, rising investment realization should push economic growth to 5.2 percent (y/y), offsetting the negative impact of fewer state spending.

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