Most companies and industries have been under huge pressure since the Indonesian government imposed a range of restrictions (specifically on people’s movement and business activities) in an effort to curb the further spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). As most companies experience a massive decline in sales, it has become difficult for these companies to finance their operating costs and expenses. And, the longer the restrictions last, the bigger companies’ financial burdens become.

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On Wednesday (03/06/2020) Indonesia Investments released the May 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'in the Eye of the Storm', we focus specifically on the social implications of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on Indonesian society. Hence, unemployment and poverty are two topics that deserve specific attention.

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An annual peak in urbanization in Indonesia is one of the most interesting consequences of the Lebaran period. Ahead of Lebaran - a national holiday when Indonesian Muslims celebrate the end of the Ramadan month - around 20 million Indonesians (most of whom reside in the urban centers of Java) travel back to their places of origin to spend a couple of days with their (extended) families. It is a tradition that is locally known as mudik.

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Normally the Ramadan month and Idul Fitri holiday (the celebration that marks the end of the Islamic fasting month) trigger an acceleration of economic activity as people consume more products (such as food and clothes), while the exodus of people from the cities to the rural areas during the week-long Idul Fitri (where they will spend a short holiday) causes a massive flow of money from the urban areas into the regional economies.

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Unemployment in Indonesia eased to 5.61 percent of the national workforce - or 7.03 million people in absolute terms - in August 2016, improving from 6.18 percent in the same period one year earlier. On Monday (07/11), Indonesia's central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported these latest data. BPS released the nation's unemployment data twice per year, covering the months August and February. BPS Chairman Suhariyanto attributed the decline in unemployment to three matters: (1) the rising number of female workers, (2) the expanding size of workers in the informal sector, and (3) the e-commerce boom.

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An official at Indonesia's Trade Ministry said Southeast Asia's largest economy is to scrap the export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) again. In July 2016 the export tax will be lowered to zero, from USD $3 per ton in the preceding month, due to sliding palm oil prices. The Indonesian government expects palm oil prices to fall in July because after the Ramadan month and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations are finished demand for the edible is set to decline.

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According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) the unemployment rate of Indonesia fell to 5.5 percent of the nation's labor force, or 7.02 million people in absolute terms, in February 2016 (compared to an unemployment rate of 5.81 percent one year earlier). The data from BPS also indicate that Indonesia's workforce - remarkably - shrank from 128.3 million in February 2015 to 127.8 million people in February 2016 particularly due to a decline in workers in the agriculture sector.

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Indonesia's Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) appreciates the 11 economic stimulus packages that have been released by the central government since September 2015. However, Kadin regrets to see that the central government does not put the issue of job creation as the basis of any package. Rosan Roeslani, Chairman of Kadin (and whose name was mentioned in the controversial Panama Papers), said all 11 packages answer to the desires of certain groups (such as investors and industries) but unemployment remains untackled.

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Indonesia's consumer confidence regarding the country's macroeconomic conditions weakened in February 2016. Bank Indonesia's Consumer Confidence Index dropped 2.6 points to 110. The survey indicates that there are two reasons that explain this decline. Firstly, lower optimism about current economic conditions of Indonesia and, secondly, lower optimism regarding job availability over the next six months. Bank Indonesia's monthly survey is based on data provided by 4,600 households in 18 Indonesian cities across the archipelago.

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For the 17th straight month Indonesia's manufacturing sector contracted. Based on the latest survey from Nikkei, the Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a reading of 48.7 in February 2016, slightly down from a reading of 48.9 in the preceding month (a reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activity has contracted). It confirms that both global and domestic growth remained subdued in the first months of 2016, hence new orders continued to decline, while unemployment rose.

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This column is the first in a series of columns about investing in Indonesia, in particular about investing in its capital markets. These columns are written by David Sutyanto, research analyst at First Asia Capital, and - as this column is the starting point - he will provide a short and broad outline of the Indonesian capital markets for now. Later, his columns will contain topics that delve more deeply into the capital markets, such as listed companies, and much more.

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