The government of Indonesia will lower the export duties on crude palm oil (CPO) from 10.5 percent in August to 9 percent in September if the CPO price continues to stay between USD $800-850 per ton. This lower tax policy is done in order to stimulate export revenues amid persistent weak global commodity prices. The international palm oil market is expected to remain stagnant in August and September. Stockpiles of CPO in Malaysia and Indonesia are projected to rise between September and December 2013.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects that Indonesia's inflation rate in August will reach about 1.3 percent (month to month), implying that the annual inflation rate will exceed 8.9 percent (year on year) in the same month. Prices of several commodities and horticultural products are still not showing a decrease in prices. These products include beef, chicken meat and onions. Thus, Bank Indonesia requests that the central and regional governments take great care in safeguarding the country's food supplies.

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The macroeconomic assumptions that have been formulated in the 2014 State Budget Draft by the government of Indonesia are not considered too realistic by several analysts. Although it is understood that one should set a high standard in order to maximize efforts, analysts feel that - given the current problematic economic context in Asian emerging economies as well as global economic turmoil - the government is far too optimistic, particularly because the government will have to devote part of its attention to the elections in mid-2014.

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Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia (PP London Sumatra Indonesia or Lonsum), controlled by the powerful Salim Group, is an Indonesian plantation company focused on the production of palm oil, rubber, tea and cocoa. Its estates are located on the islands of Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan and Sulawesi. Amid weak global demand for commodities, the company posted a 72.1 percent fall in net profit over the first six months of 2013. Its shares have fallen 48.0 percent since the first trading day of 2013.

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The government of Indonesia is concerned that the trade deficit in the oil and gas sector that was posted in the first six months of 2013, will continue in the second half of the year and will also disturb the trade balance in 2014. Indonesia's oil and gas sector posted a deficit in Semester I-2013 of USD $5.82 billion, while the non-oil and gas sector posted an USD $2.51 billion surplus. Minister of Trade Gita Wirjawan believes that Indonesia's trade deficit may reach beyond USD $5 to $6 billion this year.

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That global demand for Indonesian commodities in both the mining and agriculture sectors is still far from recovered is reflected by several financial reports, covering financial results over the first half of 2013, that were published today (15/08). Three Indonesian companies engaged in Indonesia's mining and agriculture sectors posted significantly reduced net profits compared to the same period in 2012. These companies are Indo Tambangraya Megah, Salim Ivomas Pratama, and Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia.

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According to Finance minister Chatib Basri, the Indonesian government expects the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to have grown by 6.1 percent in the first six months of 2013. This forecast falls short of the government's 6.3 percent GDP growth assumption in the state budget (APBN). Basri stated that the lower outcome is due to global factors, such as slowing economic growth in China and India. But the government's assumption is more optimistic than the forecast of the central bank, which expects growth between 5.1 and 5.9 percent.

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Indonesia's mining sector is still the biggest beneficiary of both domestic and foreign direct investments. Investments in Indonesia's mining sector rose 23.8 percent in the first six months of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. This may be somewhat surprising as global economic turmoil in recent years has resulted in falling commodity prices and weak mining exports. Investments are the most important pillar of economic growth in Indonesia after the country's vibrant consumer industry.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects inflation to moderate to 4.5 percent in 2014 if the country's current account balance can be turned into a surplus. Currently, Indonesia's trade balance shows a deficit as global demand for Indonesia's commodities has reduced due to international economic turmoil, while Indonesia continues to import large quantities of oil. If the deficit can be reversed into a surplus it will curtail inflation and automatically have a positive impact on Indonesia's currency (IDR rupiah).

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In its latest report, titled Asian Development Outlook Supplement, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has downgraded its forecast for economic growth in both 2013 and 2014 for developing Asia due to weak demand from industrial countries and slowing economic growth in China. The ADB revised down its growth forecast for developing Asia by 0.3 percent to 6.3 percent in 2013 and 6.4 percent in 2014. The Manila-based development bank also expects commodity prices to fall sharper than previously estimated. 

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In March 2024 global cocoa prices reached record highs (even temporarily touching above USD $10,000 per ton). Considering Indonesia ranks among the world’s top cocoa bean producers it is certainly worthwhile to take a closer look at this issue.

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If we take a look at Indonesian companies that went public in 2023 (becoming listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, or IDX), we see a couple of companies focused on nickel production, or nickel smelting and refining that made their trading debuts in Indonesia.

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“After the nickel ore ban [imposed in January 2020], we focus on bauxite this year [2022]. And after bauxite, we will go for tin and copper. We have to dare to take these steps!”

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In recent times, commodities have been ‘hot’. The rebound in economic activity after the COVID-19 pandemic (in combination with disrupted supply and logistics chains) started a high commodity price cycle. This cycle that was subsequently strengthened by the Russo-Ukrainian war.

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The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in Indonesia's mining and excavation sector has risen drastically over the past year. Moreover, there seems few room for an improvement of the NPL ratio in this sector on the short term because mining and excavation companies are expected to remain amid tough conditions in the remainder of the year. The NPL ratio is a key indicator for measuring bad loans.

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An interesting story was released on Bloomberg Markets Asia on Wednesday (29/03) about the sliding role of commodities in the Indonesian economy and the need for Southeast Asia's largest economy to find a new growth engine (or better: several new growth engines) that will take the country to economic growth levels of +7 percent year-on-year (y/y) as once pledged by Indonesian President Joko Widodo during his presidential campaign in 2014.

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It remains unclear whether Indonesia will revise the export ban that is stipulated by the 2009 Mining Law (Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining) and is supposed to come into effect on 12 January 2017. The 2009 Mining Law stipulates a ban on the export of unprocessed and semi-processed ores from Indonesia. The regulation aims to boost development of the nation's smelting capacity, hence becoming an exporter of materials that are positioned higher up in the value chain while curbing Indonesia's current dependence on exports of raw materials.

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Vale Indonesia, Indonesia's largest nickel producer, is one of those mining companies that has been plagued by low commodity prices. Various securities companies have cut their recommendation for the purchase of Vale Indonesia's shares due to persistently low nickel prices. Net profit of Vale Indonesia is expected to decline by 50 percent (y/y) to USD $26 million in 2016 as the company's average nickel sales price is expected to fall 29.5 percent (y/y) to USD $6,848 per ton this year.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Indonesia's economy to expand 4.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016, slightly up from a 4.8 percentage point (y/y) growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015. On Tuesday (15/03) Luis Breuer, IMF Mission Chief for Indonesia, said the Washington-based lender projects limited growth (+0.1 percent) of Indonesia's private consumption this year. Regarding growth of investment and government spending in 2016, the IMF holds a more positive view. On the same day, the World Bank cut its forecast for Indonesia's 2016 GDP growth by 0.2 percent to 5.1 percent.

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Although the palm oil industry of Indonesia is resented by many for the negative impact it has on mother nature (for example the seasonal forest fires that occur on parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan), it also constitutes a vital industry: across the globe crude palm oil (CPO) is used for the production of a wide variety of products from food, cooking oil to cosmetics or biodiesel. Indonesia is the world's largest producer and exporter of CPO. This column is the first installment in a series, written by Senior Consultant William Yang, that discusses Indonesia's palm oil industry, particularly the different business models, the risks, and how to invest safely in this industry.

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