Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) approved the central government's 2017 State Budget (APBN 2017) in a plenary session on Wednesday (26/10). This budget is considered realistic with the economic growth target set at 5.1 percent (y/y), government spending at IDR 2,080.5 trillion (approx. USD $160 billion), government revenue at IDR 1,750.3 trillion (approx. USD $135 billion), and the budget deficit at 2.41 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

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The central government of Indonesia and Commission XI within Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) agreed to set the nation's economic growth target at 5.1 percent (y/y) in the draft state budget for 2017. This target is 0.2 percentage points below the GDP growth target that was mentioned by Indonesian President Joko Widodo in a speech last month (based on a financial note) and is also below the 5.2 GDP growth target that was set in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Less optimistic forecasts are especially caused by a cut in government spending.

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A commission in Indonesia's House of Representatives advises the government to replace a law that sets a maximum budget deficit limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product. This law was implemented in 2003 after Indonesia experienced the devastating effects of the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s. Traumatic experiences made the government decide to prioritize prudent fiscal policies. Although it is unclear what the exact consequences are if the government would breach this cap (perhaps an impeachment bid could be launched), governments always respected the cap.

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Indonesia has finally become more realistic in terms of setting its tax revenue target. In the 2017 State Budget draft proposal that was sent for approval by the central government to Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) earlier this week, it set the 2017 tax revenue target at IDR 1,271.7 trillion (approx. USD $97.1 billion), down 3.6 percent from the target of IDR 1,318.9 trillion worth of tax revenue in the 2016 budget. A more realistic tax revenue target will enhance Indonesia's fiscal credibility.

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Earlier this week Indonesian President Joko Widodo sent the proposal for the 2017 State Budget to Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR). The proposed budget is regarded far more realistic compared to previous budgets drafted by the Indonesian government and therefore speculation immediately suggested that former World Bank managing director Sri Mulyani Indrawati, who became Indonesia's new finance minister in the latest cabinet reshuffle, had big input in this more pragmatic 2017 budget.

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There has been rising speculation in Indonesia in recent months that Indonesian President Joko Widodo will decide for another cabinet reshuffle as several ministers are held responsible for the disappointing performance of their ministries (that have reacted too slow to implement new government guidelines, for example those guidelines set in the series of economic policy packages that have been released since September 2015). On 12 August 2015, Widodo had already reshuffled his cabinet, replacing six ministers.

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Up to 9 June 2016 tax revenue realization in Indonesia reached IDR 364.1 trillion (approx. USD $27.4 billion), or 29 percent of the target that was set in the 2016 State Budget. This disappointing score is the result of (1) a too ambitious tax income realization target set by the government, (2) low commodity prices (particularly crude oil; curbing tax income from the nation's exports), (3) taxpayers' tax restitution (which rose 32.5 percent y/y in the January-June period), and (4) Indonesia's slower-than-expected economic growth.

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In line with expectations, the government of Indonesia revised down its economic growth target in 2016 from 5.3 percent (y/y) to 5.1 percent (y/y) amid subdued private consumption, slower-than-expected private investment, and low commodity prices. Meanwhile, the World Bank also cut its forecast for Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 to 5.1 percent (y/y), down from its earlier prediction of 5.3 percent (y/y). The World Bank also slashed its outlook for global growth from 2.9 percent (y/y) to 2.4 percent (y/y) this year.

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The government of Indonesia revised down its forecast for economic growth in 2017 to the range of 5.3 - 5.9 percent (y/y). On Friday (20/05) Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro informed parliament about the change in the growth outlook (related to the 2017 State Budget). Initially, the government projected Indonesia's 2017 GDP growth in the range of 5.5 - 5.9 percent (y/y). Brodjonegoro did not explain, however, why the government decided to revise down its GDP growth forecast in the 2017 State Budget.

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Due to weaker-than-expected revenue in 2016, the government of Indonesia has to cut government spending by IDR 50.6 trillion (approx. USD $3.8 billion) this year. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro informed that the government is currently in the middle of discussing revisions of the 2016 State Budget (APBN 2016). Weaker-than-expected government revenue is primarily the cause of weaker-than-targeted tax revenue. The government will also revise its inflation, average rupiah rate, and average oil price targets. Despite the expected cut

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The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry of Indonesia reported that government spending on energy subsidies in full-2022 reached IDR 157.6 trillion (or approx. USD $10.5 billion), well below the target that was set by the central government for 2022 (namely at IDR 211.1 trillion or approx. USD $14.1 billion). So, this certainly is good news for the government’s budget balance.

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On 25 September 2019, only a few days before Indonesia’s House of Representatives (in Indonesian: Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat, or DPR) finished its 2014-2019 term, it approved the 2020 State Budget bill (UU APBN 2020).

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The Indonesian government decided not to revise its 2018 State Budget despite the fact that a couple of assumptions in the budget - such as the rupiah exchange rate or the oil price - differ markedly from the actual (real) level in the first half of 2018. After a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Bogor, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati told reporters that President Joko Widodo will not adjust these assumptions due to a number of considerations.

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The Indonesian government expects the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) to have expanded 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2018. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati detects a strengthening domestic economy, supported by improved tax income and improved government spending in Q1-2018.

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Although realization of most components in Indonesia's state budget have improved in 2017, tax revenue realization and the management of energy subsidies remain the two big challenges for the Indonesian government. Southeast Asia's largest economy again failed to meet its tax revenue target last year. Per 31 December 2017 it collected IDR 1,151.5 trillion (approx. USD $85.3 billion) in tax revenue, only 89.74 percent of the target (excluding customs and excise).

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The government of Indonesia proposes to cut the state revenue target by IDR 88 trillion (approx. USD $6.5 billion) in the Revised 2016 State Budget. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro announced the government has sent the proposal to the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee (Banggar) on Thursday (02/06). Expectations of lower government revenue is the result of weaker-than-estimated tax collection, the lower-than-initially-assumed Indonesian crude oil price as well as the lower-than- estimated oil and gas production in Indonesia.

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So far this year, realization of government revenue in Indonesia (up to 8 May 2016) has reached IDR 419.2 trillion (approx. USD $32 billion), roughly 23 percent of the full-year revenue target in 2016 (IDR 1,822.5 trillion). This result is weaker compared to last year when the government collected IDR 476.3 trillion in the period 1 January - 15 May 2015, or 27 percent of the full-year target. Meanwhile, government spending reached IDR 586.8 trillion between 1 January and 8 May 2016, or 28 percent of the full-year target (IDR 2,095.7 trillion), roughly the same as government spending during the same period last year.

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If we look back on the month of April, two important matters - related to the economy - occurred in Indonesia this month: (1) in the first week of April, the Indonesian government managed to complete the Revised 2016 State Budget (RAPBN-P 2016), and, one week later, (2) the central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced it will adopt a new benchmark monetary tool per 19 August 2016 - the so-called seven-day reverse repurchase rate - that is to replace the existing BI rate (which fails to influence market liquidity effectively).

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Public spending on infrastructure development in Indonesia is not optimal. Sofyan Djalil, Indonesia's National Development Planning Minister as well as Head of the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), says immature and non-integrated planning between ministries and other government agencies as well as between the central and regional governments cause inefficient and non-optimal infrastructure spending. Non-optimal infrastructure development implies that Indonesia's overall economic growth as well as social development cannot achieve its full potential.

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A tax amnesty bill, which protects corruptors from prosecution and penalties when bringing overseas funds back to Indonesia and fulfill tax obligations, will soon be discussed among Indonesia's government and the House of Representatives (DPR). A tax pardon is expected to result in enhanced tax collection next year. According to the latest data from Indonesia's Finance Ministry's Tax Directorate General, the country only managed to collect IDR 686 trillion (approx. USD $51 billion), or 53 percent of its 2015 tax revenue target, in the period 1 January - 5 October 2015.

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