By relaxing the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see House Ownership Credit (Kredit Pemilikan Rumah, abbreviated KPR) growth to accelerate by an additional 5 percent. Up to April 2016, KPR growth was recorded at 7.61 percent (y/y) only, down significantly from the years 2012-2013 when - amid the glory years of property development in Indonesia - KPR growth touched figures of between 30 - 49 percent (y/y). Back then concerns emerged whether Indonesia was about to experience a price bubble in the property sector.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of 2016 to improve slightly to 4.9 - 5.0 percent (y/y) compared to the 4.92 percent (y/y) GDP growth realization in the first quarter of the year. Regarding growth in full-year 2016, Bank Indonesia remains optimistic that a 5.4 percent growth pace can be achieved supported by a looser monetary policy (that should boost demand for credit). Bank Indonesia cut its key interest rate (BI rate) by 0.25 percentage point to 6.50 percent in the June policy meeting.

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Credit disbursement in Indonesia's banking sector grew at its slowest pace in six years in the first quarter of 2016. This weak performance is attributed to the slowdown in the country's real sector. Muliaman D. Hadad, Chairman of Indonesia's Financial Services Authority (OJK), said credit expansion grew 10 percent (y/y) to IDR 4,084 billion (approx. USD $300 billion) in Q1-2016. However, Hadad remains optimistic that credit expansion will accelerate in the second half of the year in line with forecasts for accelerating GDP growth. This will be a better context for businesses to expand.

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The banking sector of Indonesia is expected to rebound in 2016 due to the lower primary reserve requirement ratio for rupiah deposits (6.5 percent), lower cost of funds as well as operational costs, rising credit volume (due to the lower interest rate environment) and improving purchasing power. The banking sector is also expected to feel the positive impact of the stimulus packages unveiled by the Indonesian government aimed at strengthening domestic businesses and improve the investment climate. And lastly, banks are to benefit from the government's push for infrastructure development.

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As expected, credit growth in Indonesia slowed in 2015 amid the nation's overall economic slowdown. Loan growth was particularly affected by weaker demand for property and working capital loans. Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2015 is estimated to have slowed to 4.7 percent year-on-year (y/y), the country's slowest growth pace since 2009. In its January policy meeting Bank Indonesia decided to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent, a move that should encourage loan growth this year in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Bank Indonesia memprediksi bahwa realisasi pertumbuhan kredit akan mencapai 9-10% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di 2015, di bawah targetnya pada 11%-13% (y/y). Sampai dengan Oktober 2015 pertumbuhan kredit bank-bank di Indonesia mencapai 10,4%, melambat dari 11,1% di bulan sebelumnya. Juda Agung, Direktur Eksekutif Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Moneter Bank Indonesia (BI), mengatakan pertumbuhan kredit yang melambat sejalan dengan perlambatan ekonomi.

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In Indonesian media more and more (unofficial) information circulates about the third installment of the government's economic policy package. This third installment, which is expected to be unveiled next week by Indonesian President Joko Widodo, involves lowering prices of gas, diesel and electricity (for industries) to avert more layoffs in Indonesia's manufacturing industry. Meanwhile, the government may lower lending rates (by cutting unnecessary costs) in order to boost credit expansion in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Seperti yang telah diprediksi, Bank Indonesia tidak mengubah tingkat suku bunganya pada pertemuan Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) pada hari Selasa (14/07). BI rate yang menjadi acuan dipertahankan pada 7,50%, sementara fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) dan suku bunga lending facility dipertahankan masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%. Bank Indonesia meyakini bahwa kondisi tingkat suku bunga saat ini sejalan dengan upaya untuk menurunkan inflasi dan juga mendukung rupiah yang melemah menjelang perkiraan pengetatan moneter lebih lanjut oleh Amerika Serikat (AS) di kemudian hari pada tahun ini.

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Pemerintah Indonesia merevisi target pertumbuhan perekonomian 2015. Sofyan Djalil, Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, menyatakan pada hari Jumat (03/07) bahwa target Pemerintah yang sebelumnya 5,8% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) terlalu tinggi dan tidak realistis mengingat konteks perekonomian internasional dan domestik yang tidak kondusif. Pemerintah merevisi turun target pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) 2015 menjadi 5,2% (y/y). Djalil mengatakan bahwa perekonomian global diproyeksi untuk bertumbuh 2,9% (y/y) di 2015 dari perkiraan awal 3,5% (y/y).

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Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings expects slowing credit growth in Indonesia to reduce systemic risks in the country’s banking sector. In a report entitled Macro-Prudential Risk Monitor, which was released on 3 March 2015, it was mentioned that the macro-prudential risk indicator (MPI) for Indonesia was lowered from '3' (high risk) to '2' (moderate risk). Primary reason for this risk cut was the slowdown in the country's real credit expansion to below 5 percent in 2014 (from a peak of almost 20 percent in 2011).

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We are gradually approaching the first 100 days in office of the new administration in Indonesia (under the leadership of President Prabowo Subianto). Does that show in the latest economic indicators?

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As usual, we devote one article to the latest available (key) macroeconomic data in an effort to assess the state of the Indonesian economy. In the previous article in this month’s report, we discussed the 4.95 percent year-on-year (y/y) GDP growth rate of Indonesia in Q3-2024. In the article you are reading right now, we’re going to take a closer look whether the country’s economic growth can accelerate (or decelerate) in the last quarter of the year.

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Before we zoom in on Indonesia, it is worth taking a closer look at the latest reports released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In its World Economic Outlook (released in October 2024), the IMF stated that global economic growth is expected to remain stable, yet underwhelming, at 3.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2024.

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As usual, we look at the latest available macroeconomic data of Indonesia to assess the strength of the national economy. Those who follow this monthly article should know that we are quite optimistic about the Indonesian economy as the majority of data are showing positive trends.

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Before turning our attention to the economy of Indonesia, it is important to take a closer look at the global economy first. Fortunately, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) just released a new update (called the OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2022) and so it’s certainly worthwhile to take a look at its conclusions.

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There are reasons to be optimistic about Indonesia’s economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2021. Obviously, the underlying reason being that new confirmed COVID-19 infections have not been far from zero in Indonesia throughout the final quarter of the year. As a consequence, the government of Indonesia did not need to impose tough restrictions, hence economic activity is allowed to blossom.

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At a special occasion at the Presidential Palace in Jakarta, Indonesian President Joko Widodo urged local banks to become more aggressive in terms of lending as credit disbursement in Indonesia's banking sector only reached IDR 4,782 trillion (approx. USD $349 billion) in 2017, hence growing by only a modest 8.3 percent year-on-year (y/y), thus unable to provide an optimal boost to domestic economic growth.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark interest rate (seven-day reverse repo rate) at 4.75 percent at the April policy meeting (19-20 April 2017), while its deposit facility rate and lending facility rate stayed at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia considers the current interest rate environment appropriate to face global uncertainties as well as rising inflationary pressures at home.

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Bank Indonesia cut its projection for credit growth in the nation's banking sector this year from the range of 10 - 11 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 7 - 9 percent (y/y). This downward revision is in line with the central bank's earlier decision to cut its forecast for economic growth from the range of 5.0 - 5.4 percent (y/y) to 4.9 - 5.3 percent (y/y) in 2016. The slightly less rosy outlook is caused by the Indonesian government's decision to cut spending for the remainder of the year, while global economic growth remains subdued.

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Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), one of the leading banks in Indonesia, is expected to maintain rising net profit figures in the years ahead due to its decision to focus on (corporate) credit disbursement for domestic infrastructure development projects. In fact, according to RHB OSK Securities, BNI may become the state-controlled bank that benefits most from the government decision to raise its infrastructure budget to IDR 313.5 trillion (approx. USD $24 billion) in the 2016 State Budget. Last year, growth of credit disbursed by BNI to infrastructure projects climbed 116.2 percent (y/y). This year infrastructure credit may grow by another 19 percent.

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