Before turning our attention to the economy of Indonesia, it is important to take a closer look at the global economy first. Fortunately, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) just released a new update (called the OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2022) and so it’s certainly worthwhile to take a look at its conclusions.
Its outlook is not too optimistic, though, as it expects global economic expansion to remain subdued in the second half of 2022 despite the boost in economic activity that is felt thanks to the limited number of COVID-19 infections around the world. So, the low base is what facilitates OECD’s reasonable growth outlook of 3 percent year-on-year (y/y) for full-2022. However, in its report the OECD states that:
“The world economy is paying a high price for Russia’s unprovoked, unjustifiable and illegal war of aggression against Ukraine. With the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic still lingering, the war is dragging down growth and putting additional upward pressure on prices, above all for food and energy. Global GDP stagnated in the second quarter of 2022 and output declined in the G20 economies. High inflation is persisting for longer than expected. In many economies, inflation in the first half of 2022 was at its highest since the 1980s. With recent indicators taking a turn for the worse, the global economic outlook has darkened.”
Meanwhile, for 2023, the OECD expects global growth to slow to a pace of 2.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) as some USD $2.8 trillion is estimated to be cut from global gross domestic product (GDP) as a direct consequence of Russia’s invasion (compared to the OECD’s December 2021 global economy outlook).
One key factor that causes slowing global economic growth in the period ahead are the tightening monetary policies that are driven by rapidly accelerating inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, in the case of China, strict COVID-19 lockdowns (associated with China’s zero COVID-19 policy) have also impacted both on Chinese and global demand.
The table above shows that selected countries (China being the notable exception) all show sliding economic expansion in 2023 compared to the preceding year. And considering the Russo-Ukrainian war is unlikely to resolve anytime soon, chances are very slim that this outlook will need to be changed. In fact, in case governments respond to new COVID-19 outbreaks as they did in 2020 things can only deteriorate further.
Meanwhile, the OECD says inflationary pressures are broadening out beyond food and energy almost everywhere as businesses throughout the economy pass through higher energy, transportation, and labour costs. Such broader inflationary pressures were already evident in the United States earlier in 2022, but are now also seen in the Euro zone, and to a lesser degree in Japan.
This is part of the introduction. The full text is available in our September 2022 report (an electronic report; PDF in English). This report can be ordered by sending an email to email@example.com or a message to +62.882.9875.1125 (including WhatsApp).
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