Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, surged further in October 2016. The HBA soared 8.04 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $69.07 per metric ton from USD $63.93 per ton in the preceding month. Indonesia's HBA price is now at its highest level since August 2014. This rally is mainly supported by rising coal demand in China.

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Coal prices are experiencing a remarkable rebound so far this year. On Thursday (15/09) the coal price touched USD $70.95 per metric ton (September delivery, ICE Futures Exchange), up about 53 percent from its position at the year-start. For Indonesia, a country that ranks among the world’s biggest coal producers and exporters, this is good news. There are plenty of coal companies active in Indonesia that will see improving corporate earnings due to the bullish price. Moreover, several coal mining companies that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have also seen their shares surge significantly.

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The DBS Group Research expects that the coal price will remain in the range of USD $60 - $65 per metric ton in the second half of 2016. Given that coal demand from China remains bleak (as authorities are eager to meet environmental accords) chances are slim that the coal price can manage to go higher. For Indonesia, a country that - in terms of commodity exports - is highly dependent on coal and crude palm oil, it means challenges remain despite the recently sharply rebounding coal prices.

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Coal miners have become cheerful over the past two months as coal prices have surged sharply. Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, soared 9.5 percent (m/m) to USD $63.93 metric tons in September 2016, touching its highest level since April 2015. Moreover, in the preceding month the HBA had already surged by 10.1 percent (m/m). What explains this rise and is it sustainable?

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Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and based on both domestic and global coal prices, rose 9.5 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $63.93 metric tons in September 2016, touching the highest level since April 2015. The recent rally is caused by supply cuts in combination with rising coal demand from China. Regarding the near-term, thermal coal prices are believed to have more upside room due to the approaching winter season.

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Over the past two months global coal prices have surged, primarily on the back of rising coal demand in China where local coal production capacity was curtailed as authorities seek to curb industrial overcapacity. Indonesia's coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly rate set by the nation's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry, rose 10.1 percent (m/m) to USD $58.37 per ton in August from USD $53.00 per ton in the preceding month, a remarkable rebound that pushed the HBA to a one-year high.

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Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (harga batubara acuan, HBA), the monthly reference price that is set by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, rose 2.29 percent (m/m) to USD $53 per metric ton (FOB) in July 2016. The Energy Ministry stated that the higher coal price is supported by the recovery in crude oil prices in May and the start of June, as well as a (temporary) rise in coal demand from India and China. However, compared to one year ago, the coal price is still down by more than 10 percent (y/y).

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The June 2016 reference thermal coal price of Indonesia (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA), a price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry on a monthly basis, rose 1.3 percent month-on-month to USD $51.81 per metric ton (FOB). In line with our earlier predictions, Indonesia's coal price has been stabilizing just above the USD $50 per ton level so far this year, supported by miners' decision to cut output amid low coal prices. Meanwhile, coal prices in Europe surged to the highest level in ten months, buoyed by rising fuel prices as well as supply disruptions.

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There will not be a rebound in the coal industry anytime soon. Indonesia, one of the world's leading (thermal) coal producers and exporters, says the nation's coal output will continue to decline in 2016 and 2017. This continued decline in production is caused by the decision of smaller miners to cease production amid the globe's low coal prices that touched a decade-low earlier this year. There should occur a positive side-effect, however, if miners indeed cut their output and that is upward support for coal prices.

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The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) expects the coal price to remain stable around USD $50 per ton in the remainder of 2016. Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (harga batubara acuan, abbreviated HBA), which is set (on a monthly basis) by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, rose 1.4 percent (m/m) to USD $52.32 per ton in April 2016. Since February the HBA has been climbing in three consecutive months. The last time Indonesia's benchmark coal price recorded a three-month gaining streak was in the October-December 2013 period.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set royalties for all types of coal at 13.5 percent (of net sales) as part of a revision of Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue. Currently, the percentage of royalty depends on the quality of the coal that is extracted as well as the type of permit that is issued to the coal miner. Apart from higher coal royalties, the Indonesian government also proposes a windfall profits tax in case there is a sharp upward price correction.

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The Standard Chartered Bank expects Indonesia's economy to expand 5.8 percent in 2014, followed by a 6 percentage growth in 2015 as an improving global economy has a positive effect on emerging economies, including Indonesia. The world economy is estimated to grow between 3.2 and 3.5 percent this year and expected to accelerate to 3.8 percent in 2015. David Mann, the regional Head of Research at the Standard Chartered Bank in Asia, said that Indonesia's economic performance in 2013 was negatively influenced by external factors.

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