Indonesia akan gagal untuk mencapai target produksi batubaranya yaitu 425 juta ton di tahun 2015 karena para penambang batubara di negara ini telah memotong produksinya kira-kira 20%. Perusahaan-perusahaan pertambangan batubara domestik memotong hasil produksi batubara karena harga batubara yang terus-menerus rendah yang menyebabkan arus kas negatif bagi banyak penambang. Harga batubara global telah menurun karena kelebihan suplai dan permintaan global yang melemah akibat lambannya pertumbuhan ekonomi.

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The global coal industry is still plagued by pessimistic sentiment. Not only has the global supply glut in combination with sluggish global economic growth put serious pressure on coal prices (while China introduced stricter coal quality tests on thermal coal imports), but most countries are also placing more emphasize on cleaner energy sources, which further curtail demand for coal. Coal prices are currently heading for a decade-low with January 2016 coal futures now at USD $52.55 per metric ton on the ICE Futures Exchange.

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Ekspor batubara Indonesia diprediksi akan jatuh menjadi di bawah 300 juta ton di 2016 karena para penambang domestik memotong volume produksi batubara karena rendahnya harga batubara. Harga referensi batubara termal pada bulan Oktober di Indonesia (ditetapkan oleh Pemerintah) jatuh 1,4% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) menjadi 57,39 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton (FOB) dan kini ada pada level terendah dalam sejarah sejak harga referensi ini mulai ditetapkan pada Januari 2009. Sementara itu, harga batubara acuan global nyaris menyentuh level terendah dalam sembilan tahun terakhir.

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Indonesia’s October benchmark thermal coal reference price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) was set at USD $57.39 per metric ton (FOB) by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, down 1.4 percent (m/m) from the preceding month and down 14.7 percent (y/y) from the same month last year. The October coal price is now at an all-time record low since the start of the government’s reference price in January 2009.

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Harum Energy, one of Indonesia’s leading coal mining companies, aims to take advantage of the current weak state of the mining sector by acquiring other coal companies. President Director Ray Antonio Gunara said that Harum Energy, which is part of the Tanito Harum Group, set aside USD $390 million (USD $190 million from internal cash reserves and USD $200 million through a loan) to purchase other coal miners.

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Indonesia’s reference thermal coal price hit another all-time low. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set the September coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) at USD $58.21 per metric ton (FOB), down 1.6 percent from the August reference rate, and the fifth consecutive month of decline. Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter.

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The government of Indonesia lowered its coal production target for 2015 from 425 million tons to 400 million tons as most Indonesian coal miners have cut production targets amid low global demand and weak prices. Domestic coal demand has also reduced primarily due to lower demand from state-owned power company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN). In the first half of 2015, Indonesia (the world’s top thermal coal exporter) produced 204 million tons according to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.

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The government of Indonesia decided to postpone its plan to raise royalties for the country’s coal miners. Bambang Gatot, senior official at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said the government will not raise coal royalties yet given the sector’s current troubled climate (referring to low global coal prices). Indonesian coal miners will be happy to hear this news as they, especially the smaller-sized coal miners, are having difficulty to survive in the post-2000s commodities boom era.

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Conditions remain tough for Indonesian coal miners in the post-2000s commodity boom. Plagued by low global coal prices since 2008, Indonesian coal miners first raised production rates in order to maintain healthy balance sheets (hence exacerbating the supply glut and putting more downward pressure on coal prices). As this backfired, they then put in place more cost-efficient policies (such as curbing the stripping ratio) in an effort to safeguard profits. However, as prices continued to slide miners are now forced to limit production to survive.

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Pandu Sjahrir, Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), said that Indonesia’s coal production could decline by 24 percent (y/y) in 2015 as the country’s coal miners have been cutting production volumes amid the world’s low coal prices. Reportedly, the free cash flow of various Indonesian coal miners have turned negative, meaning that generated cash from coal production cannot cover companies’ operational costs. In fact, the country’s coal miners are now eager to diversify to other businesses in order to stay alive.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set royalties for all types of coal at 13.5 percent (of net sales) as part of a revision of Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue. Currently, the percentage of royalty depends on the quality of the coal that is extracted as well as the type of permit that is issued to the coal miner. Apart from higher coal royalties, the Indonesian government also proposes a windfall profits tax in case there is a sharp upward price correction.

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The Standard Chartered Bank expects Indonesia's economy to expand 5.8 percent in 2014, followed by a 6 percentage growth in 2015 as an improving global economy has a positive effect on emerging economies, including Indonesia. The world economy is estimated to grow between 3.2 and 3.5 percent this year and expected to accelerate to 3.8 percent in 2015. David Mann, the regional Head of Research at the Standard Chartered Bank in Asia, said that Indonesia's economic performance in 2013 was negatively influenced by external factors.

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