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Berita Hari Ini Coal Price
While we have entered the last quarter of 2017, the coal price continues to climb. Indonesia's benchmark coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) rose 2.13 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $93.99 per metric ton in October 2017. The average HBA price so far in 2017 stands at USD $84.22 per ton, up significantly from an average of USD $61.84 per ton in full-year 2016.
Several big coal mining companies, listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, saw their shares slide drastically on Wednesday (13/09) after Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignasius Jonan announced to be considering formulating new rules to determine the price of coal for domestic supplies. However, no time-frame was given as Jonan will first listen to input from the mining sector.
Indonesia's reference coal price surged in September 2017. Southeast Asia's largest economy's benchmark coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) soared 9.6 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $92.03 per metric ton, from USD $83.97 in August. Indonesia's HBA is now at its highest position since December 2016.
The price of coal continued to strengthen for a second consecutive day on Thursday (24/08). The coal price for January 2018 contracts (the most-active contract on the Rotterdam commodities exchange) climbed 0.45 percent to USD $78.25 per metric ton, after closing higher 0.46 percent on the preceding trading day.
Coal supplies in China are estimated to show a 5.8 million ton surplus in the September-October 2017 period in line with sliding coal demand in the world's second-largest economy. Therefore, coal prices should come under pressure starting from mid-August up to late October 2017. Coal demand in China will ease as local weather conditions turn normal. Meanwhile, local coal supplies are seen growing as miners want to take advantage of the higher coal price.
The coal price has gained some further momentum over the past month. Indonesia's benchmark coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) rose 6.36 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $83.97 per metric ton in August 2017. The average HBA price so far in 2017 stands at USD $82.02 per ton, up significantly from an average of USD $61.8 per ton in full-year 2016.
Strengthening coal prices continued at the end of trading on Thursday (03/08), or early Friday morning morning Indonesian time zone, while at the same time crude oil prices declined again. Yesterday, the price of coal (for October 2017 contract, the most active contract on the Rotterdam commodities exchange) rose 0.80 percent to USD $81.55 per metric ton, hence extending gains.
The coal price extended gains on Monday (31/07) amid the crude oil rally that has been triggered by OPEC agreements. On Monday the price of coal (January 2018 contracts, the most active contract on the Rotterdam commodities exchange) rose 1.08 percent to USD $79.35 per metric ton, the highest level in nearly three years (while in early trading the price had actually tumbled 4.52 percent).
The coal price strengthened at the end of trading on Thursday (27/07) - or Friday morning Indonesian time - supported by the rebound in crude oil prices. At the end of trade on Thursday, coal prices (January 2018 contracts, the most-active contract on the Rotterdam Commodities Exchange) had risen 0.21 percent to USD $73.30 per metric ton.
The coal price weakened at the end of trading on Monday (24/07). Coal futures (January 2018 contracts, the most active contract on the Rotterdam commodities exchange), fell 1.84 percent to USD $72.38 per metric ton on Monday, reversing from their performance on the preceding trading session (Friday 21/07) when coal prices rose 0.45 percent to USD $73.74 per metric ton.
Artikel Terbaru Coal Price
Many Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have seen their shares surge in the past couple of months supported by the recovering coal prices. Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, soared from USD $50.92 per metric ton in February 2016 to USD $63.93 per ton in September.
Domestic coal consumption in Indonesia rose 34.5 percent (y/y) to 24.5 million tons in the January-April 2016 period, according to data from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. This growth is caused by higher domestic coal demand due to Indonesia's ambitious 35,000 MW program (many of the power plants constructed in this program are coal-fired). Meanwhile, Indonesia's coal exports were down 14 percent (y/y) to 68 million metric tons over the same period amid sluggish global demand.
Adaro Energy, one of Indonesia's leading coal mining companies, is still plagued by the globe's weak coal prices. However, the company's estimated lower cash and operational costs give a positive boost to the miner's corporate earnings this year. According to Danareksa Sekuritas' estimates the cost of mining for Adaro Energy (outside royalty payments) will range between USD $26 - $28 per ton in 2016, slightly down from USD $28 per ton last year. Meanwhile, the miner's stripping ratio is expected to decline to 4.7x in 2016 (from 5.2x last year).
State-controlled coal mining company Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam may be the only Indonesian coal producer that will post higher sales in 2016, both in terms of volume and revenue. The nation's other coal miners are expected to see further dropping coal sales due to sluggish global demand although coal prices may stabilize this year. According to Trimegah Securities Bukit Asam's coal sales volume will rise 25 percent (y/y) to 23.9 million tons in 2016, while revenue is estimated to rise 9 percent (y/y) to IDR 15 trillion (approx. USD $1.1 billion), and coal mining operational costs to fall by 3 percent (y/y) to USD $39.8 per ton.
Coal production in Indonesia fell 15.4 percent to 263 million tons in the first eight months of 2015 (from 311 million tons in the same period last year) as Indonesian coal miners cut production due to low global coal demand. Last week it was reported that Indonesia’s reference thermal coal price hit another all-time low at USD $58.21 per metric ton (FOB), down 1.6 percent from the August reference rate, and the fifth consecutive month of decline. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s coal exports fell 18 percent to 211 million tons (y/y) in the January-August period.
In the 2000s many Indonesian companies diversified their business to include coal mining (or shifting their core business to coal mining altogether) due to lucrative opportunities amid the 2000s commodities boom. However, since 2009 mining companies have had to face tough times. Especially since 2011 commodity prices have shown a declining trend and there remains little hope of a rebound on the short term as the sluggish global economic growth trend persists, particularly led by the economic slowdown in China.
The government of Indonesia is eager to use current low coal prices as the context to push for consolidation in the country’s coal mining sector. Sudirman Said, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, announced that the government may revoke over 4,000 troubled mining licenses this month and install a better licensing system. Licenses that may be revoked are Mining Business Permits (IUPs), not the long-standing Coal Contracts of Work (PKP2B) that are held by companies such as Bumi Resources and Berau Coal Energy.
On Monday (11/05), it was announced that the reference coal price of Indonesia declined 5.2 percent (month-on-month) to an all-time low of USD $61.08 per metric ton in May. This benchmark price, which is set by the government each month based on the average of four coal indexes (Indonesia Coal Index, Platts Index, New Castle Export Index and New Castle Global Coal Index), continued to plummet due to the coal oversupply in combination with weak global coal demand (particularly falling demand from China).
The government of Indonesia plans to raise royalties for coal mining companies that hold a Mining Business Permit (Izin Usaha Pertambangan, abbreviated IUP) by revising Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue in a move to generate more state income. R. Sukhyar, Director General for Coal and Mineral Resources at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said that the domestic coal industry remains a vital source of state income, particularly amid diminished mineral exports.
Coal is one of the most important commodities for Indonesia in terms of state revenue as it accounts for about 85 percent of the country's total mining revenue. Therefore, when global coal prices fell sharply from 2011 (amid a slowing global economy), Indonesia felt the impact. In a response to lower coal prices, Indonesian miners actually increased coal output thus placing more downward pressure on coal prices and profit margins. Although the coal industry will remain frail for some time to come, long-term prospects are still strong.
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