The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that the country’s trade balance will show a USD $500 million surplus in February 2015 on the back of increased manufacturing exports, the higher price of crude palm oil, and lower oil imports. In January, Indonesia’s trade balance recorded a USD $710 million surplus, divided into a USD $748 million surplus in the non-oil & gas trade balance and a USD $38.6 million deficit in the oil & gas trade balance.

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Indonesia posted a USD $709.4 million trade surplus in January 2015 according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released on Monday (16/02). Although the surplus is higher than expected and thus has a positive impact on the country’s trade and current account balances, the data also indicated that exports fell 8.09 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $13.30 billion signalling continued weakening global demand for Indonesian exports. Meanwhile, Indonesian imports shrank by 15.6 percent (y/y) to USD $12.59 billion.

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The current account deficit of Indonesia, which is expected to have improved slightly from 3.3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013 to about 3 percent of GDP in 2014, is forecast to continue to improve in 2015 hence placing less pressures on the rupiah exchange rate and the economy in general. A wide current account deficit makes the country vulnerable to capital outflows in times of global shocks (for example looming higher US interest rates) as the deficit signals that Indonesia relies on foreign funding.

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On Monday (03/11), several important macroeconomic data were released by statistics Indonesia. Firstly, inflation was relatively high in October at 0.47 percent month-on-month (m/m). Secondly, Indonesia posted another trade deficit in September (USD $270 million). Thirdly, Indonesia's October manufacturing activity showed a contraction (the country’s manufacturing Purchasing Manages' Index fell to a 14-month low of 49.2 in October). Lastly, a total of 791,300 foreign tourists visited Indonesia in September.

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The trade balance of Indonesia swung back into a deficit in June 2014. According to data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), published on Monday (04/08), the country’s trade deficit amounted to USD $300 million in June. Indonesian exports grew 4.45 percent (year on year) to USD $15.42 billion, while Indonesian imports increased 1.83 percent (year on year) to USD $15.72 billion. This year so far (the January to June period), Southeast Asia’s largest economy has to cope with a USD $1.15 billion trade deficit.

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After a worrying trade deficit of USD $1.96 billion in April 2014, the trade balance of Indonesia swung back into a surplus in May 2014. On Tuesday (01/07), Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that the May trade surplus was USD $69.9 million. The country’s exports rose 3.73 percent (month-on-month) to USD $14.83 billion, while imports fell 9.23 percent (month-on-month) to USD $14.76 billion in May. However, in the first five months of 2014 Indonesia still recorded a trade deficit of USD $0.82 billion.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the country's current account deficit, the broadest measure of international transactions, may widen in the second quarter of 2014 as many local companies engage in business expansion. Such expansion usually triggers an increased amount of imports, thus impacting on the trade balance. A widening current account deficit in the second quarter of the year is a normal trend. The balance usually improves in the third and fourth quarters.

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Indonesia's March 2014 trade balance recorded a surplus of USD $673 million as the value of exports reached USD $15.21 billion, while imports stood at USD $14.54 billion. It was the second consecutive monthly trade surplus for Indonesia. In February 2014, the country posted an USD $843.4 million trade surplus. In the first three months of this year, Indonesia's trade balance now accumulated to an USD $1.07 billion surplus. Market participants will be pleased to see this balance as it eases pressures on the current account deficit.

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Indonesian exports are expected to rise 6.7 percent to IDR 1,399.7 trillion (USD $123.9 billion) in 2014 as a number of advanced markets (including the United States) have been showing signs of improving economies (the calculation of the figures was done by the Ministry of National Development Planning also known as Bappenas). Increased demand from these advanced markets will result in more exports of Indonesian manufactured products. Indonesian exports of natural resources, on the contrary, are expected to slow.

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Indonesia’s official foreign exchange reserve assets stood at USD $102.6 billion as of the end of March 2014, a slight decline from the level of USD $102.7 billion in the previous month. The decline was mainly due to government payments in the context of its maturing global bond in March 2014. At this level, reserve assets can adequately cover 5.9 months of imports or 5.7 months of imports as  well as servicing of government external debt repayment, well above the international standards of reserves adequacy at three months of imports.

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Indonesia's current account deficit, which caused much alarm among the investor community, is expected to ease to about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second half of 2013. This assumption is supported by Indonesia's central bank and various analysts. The country's current account deficit reached USD $9.8 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP in Q2-2013. In combination with the weakening rupiah, higher inflation and the possible end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, investors have been pulling money out of Indonesia.

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As had been announced previously, today (23/08) the government of Indonesia released an 'emergency plan' that aims to improve the financial sector while restoring confidence in the country's fundamentals as turmoil emerged on Indonesia's stock exchange, bonds market and the rupiah. Economic minister Hatta Rajasa said that this plan consists of four packages. These four packages cover the current account deficit, rupiah performance, economic growth, purchasing power, inflation and investments.

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Indonesia’s inflation rate in July 2013 was significantly higher than analysts had previously estimated. The country’s July inflation figure accelerated to 3.29 percent. On year-on-year basis, it now stands at 8.61 percent, the highest inflation rate since many years. Particularly food commodity and transportation prices rose steeply. The main reason for Indonesia's high inflation is the reduction in fuel subsidies. In late June, the government increased the prices of subsidized fuels in order to relieve the ballooning budget deficit.

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IHSG akhir pekan lalu kembali ditutup terkoreksi 0,3% atau 15 poin di 4658,874. Nilai transaksi di Pasar Reguler kembali menipis hanya Rp.3 triliun dibandingkan rata-rata harian pekan lalu yang mencapai Rp.3,84 triliun. Asing masih mencatatkan nilai penjualan bersih Rp.92,9 miliar. Minimnya insentif positif, rilis laba emiten yang dibawah perkiraan sebelumnya, dan pelemahan rupiah atas dolar AS telah menjadi pemicu penurunan indeks. Dilihat sepekan IHSG terkoreksi 1,39% dan rupiah melemah 1,94% di Rp.10265/US dolar. 

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Indonesia already is a strong trade partner to a number of countries in Europe. Based on data released by Indonesia's Ministry of Trade, the Netherlands and Spain are two European countries that import a considerable amount of Indonesian products and thus are important contributors to Indonesia's trade surplus in the non oil & gas sector. But other European nations, such as Germany and Russia, pressure Indonesia's trade surplus. It indicates that, despite the wide distance, Indonesia and Europe have a close and valuable trade relationship.

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The slowing pace of investments has made the Indonesian government decide to revise down its forecast for economic growth in the second quarter of 2013. Minister of Finance, M. Chatib Basri, believes that GDP growth will not exceed the six percent threshold in Q2-2013. He explained that there are a number of factors that refrain the government from setting a higher growth assumption. These factors include ailing exports, non-optimal government spending, and diminishing gross fixed capital investment.

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Indonesia's trade balance recorded another deficit in April 2013 as imports (USD $16.31 billion) exceeded exports (USD $14.70 billion). April's trade deficit, amounting to USD $1.62 billion, was mainly due to continued weak commodity exports in combination with strong oil, basic machinery and utensils imports. After five consecutive months of deficits up to February, Indonesia’s trade account reported a surplus of USD $330 million in March, but fell back into deficit in April. From January to April, Indonesia's trade deficit stands at USD $1.85 billion.

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Although the United States continues its traditional focus on direct investments in developed countries, primarily in Western Europe, there has been a significant rise in US investments in Indonesia in recent years. Whereas US investments in the developed economies of Western Europe is mostly found in the financial sector and through holding companies, in developing Asia, the US is more focused on the manufacturing sector due to lower production costs. In the last two years, the US emerged as the second-largest investor in Indonesia after Japan.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia or BI) announced on Wednesday (15/05/13) that the country's external balance has improved during Q1-2013 as non-oil and gas trade were up. Indonesia's current account deficit stood at USD $5.3 billion (2.4 percent of GDP) in Q1-2013, compared to the previous quarter's deficit of USD $7.6 billion (3.5 percent of GDP). Indonesia has experienced a widening trade deficit, although it recorded a trade surplus of USD $304.90 in March, the first trade surplus since September 2012.

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With fertile soils and supportive climatic conditions, production of horticultural products (such as fruits, vegetables, or herbal medicines), should be thriving in Indonesia. In reality, however, Indonesia's horticultural production has not been able to meet domestic demand of Indonesia. Various factors lay behind this situation. But in essence it comes down to a lack of productive farmers, while demand has risen steadily. In this given situation, horticultural products should be imported. If not, prices will rise significantly.

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