There is a big possibility that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will raise its benchmark interest rate (the 7-day Reverse Repo Rate) at the monthly policy meeting in May (scheduled for 16-17 May 2018). Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo confirmed that Bank Indonesia is currently preparing "strict and consistent monetary policy measures, including the adjustment of the benchmark rate, as the central bank gives priority to market confidence and macroeconomic stability".

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Indonesia again led losses among Asian stock markets on Friday (04/05). The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.13 percent to close at 5,792.35 points, its lowest position since August 2017. Most stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were in the red zone today as investors lack risk appetite ahead of the release of US payrolls data (due later today). Analysts expect to see a strong figure. Meanwhile, US unemployment is also expected to have eased slightly.

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In line with expectations the US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 1.50 - 1.75 percent at the two-day May policy meeting (1-2 May 2018). The US central bank also said it expects the recent rise in inflation (approaching the Fed's target) to be sustained, thus markets are increasingly expecting an interest rate hike at the next policy meeting (scheduled for 12-13 June).

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Indonesia Investments expects to see Bank Indonesia raising its benchmark interest rate at least once in 2018 in order to relieve pressures on the Indonesian rupiah. Rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve will implement four interest rate hikes in 2018, while the 10-year US treasury yield  passed beyond the 3 percent line, have resulted in major pressures on emerging market assets, including Indonesia's rupiah and stocks.

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Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index continued to be plagued by a sell-off on Thursday (26/04) after already having fallen 2.40 percent on the preceding trading day. Today the benchmark index of Indonesia plunged another 2.81 percent to 5,909.20 points amid climbing US treasury yields (passing beyond the psychological boundary of three percent).

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The Indonesian rupiah is approaching the IDR 14,000 per US dollar level, the currency's weakest position since mid-December 2015. On Monday (23/04) the rupiah depreciated 0.59 percent to IDR 13,975 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Considering the fundamentals of the domestic economy are strong (despite some room for concern about Indonesia's widening current account deficit), it are external factors that put pressure on the rupiah.

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The Indonesian rupiah depreciated heavily against the US dollar on Friday (20/04) amid the release of positive US economic data, a rise in the benchmark 10-year US bond yields, while the US Federal Reserve may remain on track to push for monetary tightening as concerns about geopolitical trouble and a global trade war ease. Meanwhile, the start of the US earnings season was promising with 88 percent of released reports either meeting or exceeding consensus (so far about 15 percent of US companies have released their corporate earnings reports).

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The foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia fell to USD $126.0 billion at the end of March 2018, down from a level of USD $128.06 billion one month earlier. The decrease in reserve assets was particularly attributed to the use of foreign exchange for public foreign debt repayments and rupiah stabilization efforts amid pressures stemming from rising global uncertainty in the financial markets. Uncertainties originate from the latest Fed Funds Rate hike as well as the looming trade war between the USA and China (but would be felt across the globe).

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As was widely expected by markets, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate to the range of 1.50 - 1.75 percent, which is the highest level since 2008, at the March 2018 monthly policy meeting on Wednesday (21/03). The rate hike was already priced in as few expected a different decision, hence most Southeast Asian stock indexes are up on Thursday (22/03), including Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index that rose 0.19 percent to 6,324.78 points in the first trading session.

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Although the fundamentals of the Indonesian economy are sound, credit rating agency Standard & Poor's Global Ratings (S&P) warned that there are several threats. These threats include four Fed Funds Rate hikes in 2018, a fragile rupiah, a looming higher benchmark interest rate in Indonesia (BI 7-day Reverse Repo), sluggish household consumption growth, a shift of focus from reforms to elections, the impact of a global trade war, and a deterioration in the balance sheets of certain state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

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Amid falling Asian stock indices, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) managed to gain 33.8 points to 4,546.50 (+0.75 percent) on Wednesday (23/10). The main reason for today's upward movement was large-scale stock purchases by domestic investors, who are more confident now after it has been expected that the Federal Reserve will not tone down its massive bond-buying program (quantitative easing) in the near future. A few blue chips, including Bank Mandiri and Unilever, were popular stocks today.

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Rising global stock indices at the end of last week continued to impact positively on Asian stock indices on Monday (21/10), including Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG). Moreover, speculation that the Federal Reserve will not alter its quantitative easing program until early next year also brought along positive market sentiments. This is expected to result in the inflow of US dollars into emerging markets. On Monday, the IHSG rose 0.70 percent to 4,578.18 despite continued foreign selling and rupiah depreciation.

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The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) rebounded on Thursday's trading day (17/10), supported by good news from the United States where finally an agreement was reached regarding the US debt ceiling. This agreement brought positive market sentiments on Asian stock markets, including the IHSG which rose 0.59% to 4,518.93 points. Moreover, Indonesia's minister of Economy Hatta Rajasa stated that Indonesia had not been significantly impacted by the US shutdown issue and this statement also managed to ease investors' concerns.

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Although Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) started mixed on Wednesday (09/10), it gradually climbed as the trading day moved on. The country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate), which was kept at 7.25 percent by Bank Indonesia on Tuesday (08/10), continued to make a positive impact. However, negative market sentiments were brought on by the US shutdown as well as the downgrade of the IMF's outlook for world economic growth in 2013 and 2014. Lastly, the weakening IDR rupiah also implied negative market sentiments.

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As had been hoped, after closing the gap at 4.375-4.403, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) did not continue its fall at the same pace as it had in the past couple of days. Investors were still cautious, however, and took a wait and see attitude. Foreign investors were net sellers of Indonesian stocks, while the rupiah exchange rate kept depreciating. Moreover, Asian stock indices were mixed and thus provided no good support for the IHSG. The index fell 0.02 percent to 4,405.89. Domestic investors were net buyers of Indonesian stocks.

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Both the Indonesian currency and the benchmark stock index (IHSG) continued their fall on Tuesday (24/09). Wall Street's weak performance on the last three trading days was a major factor that brought negative market sentiments to the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Even good openings in Europe were not able to push the IHSG back into green territory. The index fell 2.25 percent to 4,460.41 points. Foreign investors were net sellers of Indonesian stocks, while domestic investors were net buyers.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) extended its downward movement on Monday (23/09) as investors continued to look for profits after the index had risen sharply following the announcement that the US quantitative easing program will not be ended yet. Pressures on the IHSG were intensified by the depreciating rupiah and the weakening of Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (which was partly brought on by a typhoon). Despite foreign investors being net buyers of Indonesian stocks, the IHSG fell 0.46 percent to 4,562.86 points.

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Starting from May 2013, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) has been on a weakening (bearish) trend inflicted by various reasons. First, in early May, Standard & Poor's downgraded Indonesia's credit rating due to the government's hesitancy to slash fuel subsidies. Then, the Federal Reserve started to speculate about ending its quantitative easing program. Capital outflows that followed indicated the vulnerable state of the Indonesian economy. Moreover, the controversial hike in fuel prices in late-June resulted in high inflation.

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On Thursday (19/09), most currencies and stock indices outside the USA were bullish after the Federal Reserve decided to continue its massive monthly USD $85 billion bond buying program. Today (20/09), Asian currencies and stock indices took the foot off the gas as many investors sought to cash in on yesterday's gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific was still able to rise slightly (0.1 percent) after jumping 2.2 percent yesterday, but Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) plunged 1.86 percent (after gaining 4.65 percent yesterday).

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Contrary to the expectation of most analysts, the Federal Reserve decided to continue its monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, and retained the low interest rate of 0.25 percent. Although coming as a surprise, the news was well-received by the investor community all around the world, who were eager and confident to purchase stocks. The benchmark stock index of Indonesia, IHSG, felt this impact too and rose 4.65 percent to 4,670.73 points.

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