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The latest Federal Reserve minutes, released on Wednesday (05/07), injected a degree of uncertainty into markets. The minutes, covering the Federal Open Market Committee's June meeting, show a fragmented Fed that is split on when to start shrinking the Fed's massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet as well as on the inflation slowdown.
In line with expectations the US Federal Reserve announced to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.00 - 1.25 percent after conclusion of the June policy meeting on Wednesday (14/06), its second hike in 2017. It also announced it will soon start its balance sheet unwinding plan, meaning cutting its massive (USD $4.5 trillion) holdings of bonds and securities. The Fed also informed US inflation will remain below its target with core inflation slowing for a fourth month in May 2017. But despite soft inflation, it goes ahead with monetary tightening.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index surged a whopping 1.49 percent to 5,792.90 points in Wednesday (14/06). The US Fed, which is to conclude its two-day policy meeting later today, is widely assumed to raise its key short-term interest rate by 0.25 percent, which would be the third rate hike in six months. For Indonesian stocks it was a new record high. Not only Indonesia but most stock indexes climbed in Asia ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.
There are various reasons for investors to be cautious in Asia today. Markets need to digest and wait for political certainty in the United Kingdom and France (where elections brought political uncertainty), while two big central banks (the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan) are in the spotlight this week as they conduct their monthly policy meetings.
On early Monday morning we detect light trading in Asian stock markets. This is mainly because markets in the USA, United Kingdom and China are closed for a public holiday today (29/05), while investors are also awaiting speeches from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) officials as well as the US jobs report (due on 2 June). Meanwhile, North Korea again caused rising tensions as it launched another ballistic missile in its latest test.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged after May's two-day policy meeting that was concluded on Wednesday (03/05). The US central bank also delivered a rather hawkish policy statement, downplaying weak Q1-2017 economic growth and emphasizing the strength of the US labor market. This implies the Fed is still on track for two more rate hikes in the remainder of 2017.
Indonesian stocks continue to expand into record high territory. On Wednesday (05/04) Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index gained 0.45 percent to close at 5,676.98 points, a fresh new record high position. Indonesia's main stock index is currently "hot" due to several internal and external factors. However, a new report released by Morgan Stanley may make investors a bit cautious as valuations for Indonesian stocks have been rising sharply recently.
It was a good day for Indonesian stocks on Wednesday (29/03) as the nation's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) hit a new record high at 5.592.51 points, one day after Indonesian markets had been closed for a public holiday. Not only Indonesia but most Asian stocks rose on Wednesday - in line with expectations - following Wall Street higher overnight where the Trump stock rally seems back on track, especially after positive new economic data.
Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index finished at an all-time record level on Friday (17/03), supported by mostly rising Asian stocks as global investors are attracted again by higher-yielding assets in emerging markets after the US Federal Reserve turned out to be not as "hawkish" as market participants had assumed. Indeed the Fed raised its key Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points at the March policy meeting but the US central bank emphasized that further interest rate hikes would be gradual.
In line with expectations, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis-points to the range of 0.75 - 1.00 percent on Wednesday (15/03). It was the Fed's third rate hike in the past 15 months. As this hike had already been expected by basically all market participants it was more important to learn the Fed's stance on the pace and number of further rate hikes in 2017. On this matter Fed Chief Janet Yellen remained rather dovish, saying any further hikes in 2017 would be gradual. Wall Street now expects to see two more hikes in 2017.
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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) closed 1.12 percent higher on Wednesday (17/09) supported by Tuesday’s positive stock indices on Wall Street as well as speculation that the US Federal Reserve will not raise its key interest rate yet. Today (17/09), the Federal Reserve will conclude its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Lastly, after weak economic data, it was reported that China’s central bank (PBOC) injected USD $82 billion into the country's five largest banks.
Stock markets in the Asia Pacific were down on Tuesday (16/09) as investors are awaiting the results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) today (Wednesday 17/09) and are focused on the condition of the Chinese economy. Moreover, investors were disappointed to hear that next Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) will appoint 16 party politicians to lead ministries in his cabinet (which is in contrast with his initial plan to appoint technocrats). Lastly, the Indonesian rupiah exchange continued to depreciate.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) wrote in its most recent report that emerging economies, which includes Indonesia, are highly vulnerable to severe capital outflows as investments from the West have been highly speculative and can be quickly pulled out from emerging markets. Even when only a light shock occurs, capital outflows will be significant as international investors have been showing ‘herd behaviour’. This behavior can rock the financial fundamentals of emerging markets and leave these countries shattered.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.35 percent to IDR 11,714 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (25/08) as the positive market sentiments that were caused by Indonesia’s Constitutional Court that rejected Prabowo Subianto’s claim that the 2014 presidential election was invalid due to massive fraud, eased. Market participants were again looking at the domestic economic condition as well as international developments that are considered to impact on the performance of Indonesia’s currency.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated slightly against the US dollar on Monday (18/08). At the end of the trading day the rupiah had weakened 0.07 percent to IDR 11,687 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. This performance was in line with the performance of most other emerging Asian currencies as market participants are awaiting the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium which may provide new information about US short-term interest rates and other policy strategies.
Governor of the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), Agus Martowardojo, commented on Indonesia’s troubled current account balance on Tuesday (12/08). Martowardojo said that he expects the balance to improve in 2014. Last year, the current account deficit of Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached 3.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP); a level which is generally regarded as unsustainable. This year, the deficit may ease to 3 percent of GDP. For investors the current account balance is an important matter. Why?
Despite China’s positive economic growth of 7.5 percent in the second quarter of 2014, most Asian stock indices were down. Only Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) managed to show a slight gain as large cap stocks were sought after. The HSI impacted positively on the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) on Wednesday (16/07) which climbed 0.85 percent to 5,113.93 points on Wednesday (16/07). Foreign investors recorded net buying.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.33 percent to IDR 11,698 per US dollar on Wednesday (16/07) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Although at the start of the trading day the rupiah weakened due to commentary of Federal Reserve Head Janet Yellen who said that US interest rates may increase sooner than expected provided that the US job market improves faster than anticipated, at the end of the trading day Indonesia's currency strengthened on improved economic growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy.
Most Asian stock indices were up on Tuesday (15/07) influenced by rising indices on Wall Street and in Europe on the previous day. Also for investors on Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) this meant an opportunity to engage in stock trading even though the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated considerably and political uncertainties remain (as the winner of the Indonesian presidential election remains a question mark). In fact, investors were confused to see the Merah Putih coalition.
After a disastrous year in 2013, characterized by capital outflows from emerging economies, global investors’ confidence in emerging markets seems restored in 2014. More and more money has been flowing to Latin America and Asia, causing rising regional stock indices and lower bonds yields. For example, the stock index of India has reached a near-record level. This is in sharp contrast with developments last year when emerging stock indices, exchange rates and (most) interest rates increased.
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