The production of heavy equipment in Indonesia in the first half of 2014 fell by 25 percent (year-on-year) to 2,292 units. The decline in production is due to the still weak state of the mining and construction sectors in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Main reasons being the implementation of the mineral ore export ban in January 2014 and low commodity prices, for example coal. Limited construction projects have been undertaken in the first half of 2014 as investors wanted to wait for the results of Indonesia’s legislative and presidential elections first.

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Growth of the Indonesian property sector, estimated at 10 to 15 percent in 2014, boosts sales of ceramics. Similarly, the nation's construction sector - which grew 7 percent per year on average between 2009 and 2013 - stimulates the ceramic industry. This year, revenue in the Indonesian ceramic industry is projected at IDR 34 trillion (USD $3.0 billion). About 85 percent of total revenue in the country's ceramic industry is forecast to be generated through domestic sales, the remainder through exports abroad.

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Pembangunan Perumahan (PP), an Indonesia-based government-controlled construction and investment company, plans to list its subsidiary PP Properti on the Indonesia Stock Exchange through an initial public offering (IPO). The subsidiary is expected to list 30 percent of its shares on the stock exchange and aims to raise between IDR 1.2 and 1.5 trillion (roughly USD $119 million) through this corporate action. The IPO is planned to be conducted in the first quarter of 2015. The possible lead underwriters are Mandiri Sekuritas and Bahana Securities.

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Wijaya Karya Beton, better known as Wika Beton, set its share price at IDR 590 for the initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Previously, the company indicated an offering price target in the range of IDR 470 to IDR 630 per share. As Wika Beton's shares are expected to lure investors, the price was set relatively high within that price range. During Wika Beton's roadshow to Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong, global investors expressed their interest in the company's prospects.

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Four publicly listed - yet state controlled - construction companies recorded a combined 42 percent growth (year on year) in net profit in 2013. The combined net profit of these four companies - Wijaya Karya (Wika), Adhi Karya, Pembangunan Perumahan (PP) and Waskita Karya - totaled IDR 1.74 trillion (USD $146.2 million) last year. These numbers evidence the robust growth that Indonesia's property and infrastructure sectors experienced in 2013 and is expected to continue in 2014.

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Adhi Persada Properti, subsidiary of majority state-owned construction company Adhi Karya, plans to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2015. The company hopes to reap IDR 600-700 billion (roughly USD $54 million) through this corporate action. However, Pulung Prahasto, Director of Adhi Persada Properti, declined to inform how many shares will be publicly listed as this is still a topic for internal debate. Adhi Persada Properti is engaged in property and real estate development.

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Wika Beton, a subsidiary of majority state-owned construction company Wijaya Karya, will sell over 20 percent of its enlarged capital in an initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in the first quarter of 2014. The company, which has appointed Bahana Securities, Mandiri Sekuritas, Danareksa Sekuritas and Sucorinvest Central Gani to act as underwriters for the IPO, expects a 20 percent increase (yoy) in revenue to IDR 2.4 trillion in 2013, and targets a similar growth rate in 2014.

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In 2013, domestic production of heavy equipment in Indonesia fell 30 percent to 6,127 units from the previous year as commodity prices (such as crude palm oil and coal) were still down. This made Indonesian miners reluctant to ramp up production figures, thus having less need to purchase heavy equipment. According to Pratjojo Dewo, Chairman of the Indonesian Heavy Equipment Association (Hinabi), demand for heavy equipment in Indonesia started falling at the end of 2012 and continued into 2013.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that credit growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy will not exceed 20 percent (year on year) by the end of December 2013. Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Halim Alamsyah, stated that credit growth is likely to slow to between 15 and 17 percent (yoy) in 2013 (based on a fixed rupiah exchange rate). Credit growth especially slowed in Indonesia’s consumption and construction sectors; a trend which is expected to continue in 2014.

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Bank Indonesia (Indonesia's central bank) has expressed that it will support slowing credit growth in the country's banking sector next year in order to foster a more stable financial environment amid a complex external and internal context. In recent years, credit growth in Indonesia has grown over 20 percent annually, while in 2013 it is expected to slow to between 18 and 20 percent amid a tighter policy regime. In 2014, Bank Indonesia targets credit growth between 15 to 17 percent. As a result banks will be more cautious in their lending approach.

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Indonesian general contractor Paramita Bangun Sarana targets to raise up to IDR 350 billion (approx. USD $26.5 million) through an initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The company will offer up to 300 million shares, equivalent to 20 percent of its enlarged capital, to investors through the corporate move. Vincentius Susanto, Secretary at Paramita Bangun Sarana, said the indicative price for shares is set in the range of IDR 1,000 - 1,300 a piece. The offering period for the shares is scheduled for 16 - 20 September 2016, while listing on the (IDX) is scheduled for 27 September.

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Construction companies in Indonesia are expected to grow strongly, supported by the availability of many new construction contracts, in the second half of 2016. Particularly state-controlled construction firms are expected to benefit from the government's push for infrastructure development. The central government's budget for infrastructure development has risen significantly in recent years (see table below), while the government also tries to direct part of the funds that are generated through the tax amnesty program toward infrastructure development.

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Today, Indonesia's House of Representatives passed the Tax Amnesty Bill into law. Indonesian authorities expect this bill to bring home trillions of rupiah (hundreds of million of US dollars) that partly flow into Indonesia's property sector. Total Bangun Persada, one of Indonesia's leading construction companies, is one of the companies that can benefit from these inflows. CIMB Securities expects the company's revenue to grow 6.8 percent (y/y) to IDR 2.52 trillion (approx. USD $189 million) in 2016.

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Corporate earnings of Indonesian state-controlled construction and investment company Pembangunan Perumahan (abbreviated PP) are in line with analysts' forecasts. In the first quarter of 2016, PP's revenue rose 30.6 percent (y/y) to IDR 2.58 trillion (approx. USD $195 million), while net profit rose 5 percent (y/y) to IDR 98 billion (approx. USD $7.4 million) from the same quarter one year earlier. These figures indicate the company experienced a solid start of the year.

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Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2016 was rather disappointing at 4.92 percent (y/y), below analyst estimates that averaged around 5 percent (y/y), due to slowing household consumption, private investors being in a wait-and-see mode, and relatively weak government spending (a usual phenomenon at the year-start). Indonesia's construction sector also grew weakish in Q1-2016. However, the construction sector still has good prospects in the years ahead on the back of the government's infrastructure projects.

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With Indonesia's construction and infrastructure sectors expected to grow in 2016, backed by government support, Indonesia-based steel pipe manufacturer Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia should manage to see higher net profit this year. The company, with its factories in Sidoarjo and Surabaya (East Java), has the largest steel pipe production capacity of all steel pipe producers in Indonesia. With its six factories - and 34 production lines - the company's production capacity currently stands at 588,600 metric tons per year.

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After having grown rapidly in the years 2010-2013, infrastructure development in Indonesia lost its momentum in 2014. This was due to limited available government funds, uncertainty caused by the legislative and presidential elections, and the nation's slowing economic growth. After Joko Widodo became Indonesia's seventh president in October 2014, it was expected that infrastructure development would revive. However, it didn't. But Widodo made one important move by seriously reducing energy subsidies, hence making more funds available for infrastructure development.

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In late September, the Minister of Public Works (Minister) issued Minister Regulation number 10/PRT/M/2014 regarding Guideline Requirements for Giving Permission Foreign Construction Service Representative Office (New Regulation). The New Regulation for construction representative offices in Indonesia replaces the old Minister regulation 05/PRT/M/2011 (Old Regulation) which had a similar title. The New Regulation has become more comprehensive than the Old Regulation and in this column we will discuss the most significant changes for foreign investors.

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Indonesian cement sales have slowed and may not achieve the target set for 2014. In the first half of 2014, the country’s domestic cement sales totaled 28.9 million tons, a 3.9 percentage point increase from the same period last year, well below the growth target of 6 percent (year-on-year, yoy). However, this development is no surprise as economic growth of Indonesia has slowed in recent years. Cement sales, a key indicator of construction activity (infrastructure and property development) are closely linked to general GDP growth.

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In the last 12 months, the international copper price showed a neutral movement (moving more or less sideways). This is particularly due to a number of issues in China, the world’s second largest economy, which impact negatively on the copper price movement. China has become such an important market for a variety of commodities, including copper (used in construction and electronics), that other countries can be considered almost irrelevant. Why do analysts have low expectations of the copper market for the remainder of 2014?

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