On Saturday 5 July 2014, the fifth presidential debate between the two presidential pairs took place. Candidates Prabowo Subianto (joined by running mate Hatta Rajasa) and Joko “Jokowi” Widodo (joined by running mate Jusuf Kalla) faced off in the last debate. The theme of this debate was 'energy, food security and environment'. Sudharto P. Hadi, Professor of Sociology at the Diponegoro University in Semarang (Central Java) was the moderator. On Wednesday 9 July 2014, the Indonesian people will go to the ballot boxes to elect their next leader.

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With only one more week to go before the Indonesian people will go to the ballot boxes on 9 July 2014 to vote for Indonesia's next leader, speculation and news about the presidential race has become intense. On social media, discussions among Indonesians about the election are intense and emotional. This is exacerbated by the high level of uncertainty with regard to the outcome of the election. Recent surveys indicate that the initial large gap between candidates Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto has nearly vanished.

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Opinions about who won the vice-presidential debate, held on Sunday (29/06) in the Bidakara hotel (South Jakarta), were mostly mixed. However, when reading the Indonesian media on Monday morning there seems to be a preference for Hatta Rajasa’s performance (the running mate of presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto). When watching the debate, it was clear that Rajasa is a much more rhetorically gifted speaker compared to his rival Jusuf Kalla (Joko Widodo’s running mate).

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This evening (Sunday 29 June 2014), the fourth presidential debate took place, organized in the Bidakara hotel in South Jakarta. However, it was not a debate between the two presidential candidates, Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo and Prabowo Subianto, but between both vice presidential candidates: Jusuf Kalla (Jokowi’s running mate) and Hatta Rajasa (Subianto’s running mate). The theme of tonight's debate was development of human resources, science and technology in Indonesia.

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In the past week, commotion occurred in Indonesia related to the presidential election (which is scheduled for 9 July 2014). This commotion, which involved two 2001 interviews by award-winning American journalist Allan Nairn, a Nazi video, and US ambassador Robert O. Blake Jr, was related to controversial presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, former army general and former son-in-law to Indonesia’s second president Suharto. The 2014 election has become a tight race between Subianto and market favourite Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo.

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Indonesia Investments updated the company profile of Indosat in our Indonesian Companies section. Indosat, the third-largest telecommunication operator in Indonesia with approximately 59.7 million cellular subscribers, made headlines in Indonesian newspapers after presidential candidate Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo said in a debate on Sunday (22/06) that he would like to see the Indonesian government buy back shares of the company (which had been sold to Qatar Telecom about a decade ago amid financial turmoil).

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On Sunday evening (22/06), the third debate between the two presidential candidates of Indonesia - Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto - took place and was broadcast live on national television by various stations. Through these debates the presidential candidates are able to outline their vision while trying to increase their popularity among the Indonesian electorate (on 9 July 2014 the Indonesian people will vote for their new leader). The theme of this third debate was ‘international politics and national security’.

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A survey of the Deutsche Bank, one of the world's leading financial service providers, showed that the foreign business community will not be content if Prabowo Subianto takes over the presidential seat from incumbent president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. According to this survey, 56 percent of respondents are planning to sell Indonesian assets if the electorate chooses Subianto as next president in the election that is scheduled for 9 July 2014. About 13 percent answered to buy Indonesian assets in the same scenario.

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A survey conducted by Pusat Data Bersatu (PDB) shows that the Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo-Jusuf Kalla pair enjoys more popularity than the Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa pair. Both teams compete to be elected as Indonesia’s new president and vice president by the people (on 9 July 2014). The result of the survey, which was conducted in seven cities, indicates that, if the election would be held today, Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla can rely on 32.2 percent of the vote, whereas the Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa team received 26.5 percent of the vote.

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On Monday evening (09/06), the first debate between Indonesia’s two presidential candidates (joined by their running mates) was held and broadcast live on national television by various Indonesian television stations. This debate is the first in a series of five debates in which both teams - Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo and Jusuf Kalla vs Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa - are able to share their vision and mission to the Indonesian electorate. The debate immediately became a trending topic on social media.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) declined 0.92 percent to 5,136.86 points on the last trading day of the week. Seven of the ten sectorial indices fell, led by the finance sector (-1.66 percent), followed by consumer goods (-1.50 percent) and manufacturing (-1.34 percent). The main reason for this poor performance is that investors are again looking at the true fundamentals of the Indonesian economy instead of optimism about Joko Widodo becoming Indonesia’s seventh president.

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In the past days, Indonesia’s fuel subsidy policy has been in the spotlight of Indonesian media continuously. When it was reported that incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and newly elected president Joko Widodo would meet on the island of Bali this week to discuss various transitional matters, speculation emerged that the country’s generous fuel subsidies, which seriously burden the government’s budget as well as current account, might be wound down before the new government is inaugurated in October 2014.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) rose 0.37 percent to 5,184.48 on Thursday’s trading day (28/08) on increased expectation that the transition from the Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) government to the Joko “Jokowi” Widodo government will be smooth and efficient evidenced by the pair's meeting in Bali to discuss various matters regarding the transfer of power. For investors, this meeting led to increased optimism. Stocks in the property and miscellaneous sectors led the gain.

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It took almost six hours for the Constitutional Court of Indonesia (Mahkamah Konstitusi) on Thursday (21/08) to read out 300 pages of a lengthy 4,392-page verdict in the case filed by defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, who claimed that the result of Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election was invalid due to widespread violations and fraud that allegedly occurred during the voting and counting processes. During the read out it became increasingly clear that the court would reject Subianto’s claims due to a lack of evidence.

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At 14:00 pm local Jakarta time zone, Indonesia’s Constitutional Court (Mahkamah Konstitusi) is expected to announce its decision on Prabowo Subianto’s election result challenge. The defeated presidential candidate filed a court case claiming that massive fraud and violations took place amid the voting and counting processes in the context of Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election, won by Joko Widodo (securing 53.15 percent of the votes). Although the court’s decision is final and legally binding, Subianto not expected to surrender yet.

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Foreign ownership of plantations in Indonesia may be limited to a maximum of 30 percent if a new draft bill designed by Indonesian parliament is approved. This draft bill aims to encourage local participation within Indonesia’s plantation sector at the expense of foreign ownership. Currently, foreign ownership of plantations in Indonesia is set at a maximum of 95 percent. The draft bill also aims to simplify complex rules regarding land use, protect indigenous people, and will make it easier to prosecute companies responsible for forest fires.  

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When campaigning, presidential candidates will always promise a bright future in order to gain votes. It is particularly easy for a new presidential candidate to promise golden mountains as opposed to the incumbent president who needs to be more cautious making promises as people can point to the (failed) results of his promises during the presidential term. The 2014 Indonesian presidential election was particularly interesting as we saw two new presidential candidates and, thus, the ‘inflation of promises’.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate showed great volatility on Tuesday’s trading day (22/07). In the first part of the day the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index of IHSG) and rupiah strengthened on speculation that market favourite Joko “Jokowi” Widodo would win the presidential election without riots or other incidents that could trigger political uncertainties. On Tuesday evening, the General Elections Commission (KPU) indeed officially declared Jokowi the winner of the election.

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Both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and Indonesian stocks posted a good performance on Monday (21/07). Main reason for this positive performance is increased speculation that presidential hopeful Joko Widodo has won the election. Based on information originating from the General Elections Commission (KPU), Widodo has won the election by a safe margin of five percentage points. On Tuesday 22 July 2014, the KPU will officially release the result. However, rival Prabowo Subianto will probably challenge the result.

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Recent elections in Indonesia have met with a great deal of attention and look to be a decisive moment for the country. We are looking at a country that has major financial problems and also is making a decision about the direction of its democracy. Prabowo Subianto has pledged to conduct a rollback in some of the aspects of Indonesia’s democracy. So the supporters of Indonesian democracy will be watching very closely to see how the recent election events will unfold.

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