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For the first time since early November 2020 – which is around five months ago – the Indonesian rupiah depreciated beyond the IDR 14,500 per US dollar level. It is a threshold that makes Indonesians a bit concerned.
The Indonesian rupiah had a good start of the month in November 2020. Based on Bank Indonesia’s Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor), the rupiah appreciated 3.4 percent against the US dollar in the first two trading weeks of November 2020.
The Indonesian rupiah rate, which had been under extreme pressure amid the start of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis in March 2020, rebounded in April 2020 and continued this rebound throughout May 2020 (albeit at a less impressive pace).
While the Indonesian rupiah rate had retreated against the US dollar in November 2019 amid an increase in uncertainty in international markets, the Indonesian currency managed to end the year 2019 on a positive note.
The Indonesian rupiah rate appreciated modestly in September 2019. The currency started the month at the level of IDR 14,237 per US dollar and ended the month at IDR 14,174 per US dollar (data taken from Bank Indonesia’s benchmark Jisdor rate). In other words, the rupiah strengthened 0.44 percent against greenback in the month of September 2019.
The Indonesian rupiah made a stable performance against the US dollar in February 2019. The benchmark JISDOR rate of Bank Indonesia ended the second month of the year at the position of IDR 14,062 per US dollar, appreciating modestly from the level of IDR 14,072 per US dollar at the last trading day of January 2019.
In the month of December 2018 the Indonesian rupiah weakened 0.99 percent from IDR 14,339 per US dollar on the last trading day of November 2018 to IDR 14,481 per US dollar on the last trading day of December 2018 (based on Bank Indonesia’s benchmark JISDOR rate).
While most of the focus, rightfully, remains centered on the disaster in Central Sulawesi where presumably thousands of people have lost their lives due to a big earthquake and devastating tsunami, it is worth keeping an eye on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate which is again facing heavy pressures and has now slipped beyond the psychological boundary of IDR 15,000 per US dollar.
In line with expectations, the US Federal Reserve decided to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the range of 2.00 - 2.25 percent at the September policy meeting that was concluded on Wednesday 26 September 2018. It is the Fed's eight rate hike since 2015 and the third one so far in 2018.
Concerns about emerging market contagion is pushing emerging market stocks, currencies, and bonds in deep red territory on Wednesday (05/09). Indonesia leads the decline with its benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunging slightly over 3 percent in the first one-and-half hours of trading, while the rupiah is sliding toward the IDR 15,000 per US dollar level (its weakest position since the Asian Financial Crisis in the late-1990s).
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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.54 percent to IDR 11,822 per US dollar in the past week (based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index). Several internal and external factors influenced the currency’s performance over the past week, such as increased US dollar demand from local Indonesian companies, Bank Indonesia’s decision to leave the BI rate unchanged and the improving US economy. Lastly, the structural current account deficit (triggered by expensive oil imports) remains a problem for investors.
Contrary to the positive performance of the benchmark stock index of Indonesia on Monday’s trading day (01/09) and despite positive domestic economic data released by Statistics Indonesia, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 11,716 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (01/09). The main reason for the currency’s depreciation is the strengthening US dollar as US economic data are improving and inflation is slowing in the Eurozone.
The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) fell 0.14 percent to 5,198.90 points on the last trading day of the week, the first day of decline in five trading days, as investors engaged in profit taking after Indonesia’s Constitutional Court confirmed the official election result of the General Elections Commission (KPU) that announced Joko Widodo as winner of the July 2014 presidential election. Next week investors may continue profit taking as the index is still overbought.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.67 percent to IDR 11,665 per US dollar on Monday (14/07) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Meanwhile, the benchmark stock exchange of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) declined 0.23 percent to 5,021.06 points. The main reason for weakening markets in Indonesia is investors’ wait & see attitude ahead of the official result of Indonesia’s presidential election. On 22 July 2014, the General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the winner of the election.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its recent depreciating trend on Wednesday (28/05). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency had depreciated 0.46 percent to IDR 11,633 against the US dollar at the end of the trading day. The rupiah's performance is in line with the general trend in Asia where most currencies lost ground to the greenback on today's trading day. As various US economic data indicate a continued recovery of the US economy, the market expects more US monetary tightening.
At the end of Friday’s trading day (02/05), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.32 percent to IDR 11,525 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The rupiah performed better than most of its regional emerging peers as inflation and trade data, which were released today by Statistics Indonesia, provided positive market sentiments. Indonesian inflation eased to 7.25 percent (year-on-year) in April 2014, from 7.32 percent a month earlier. Meanwhile, the country posted a trade surplus of USD $673 million in March 2014.
Due to a lack of positive domestic and external sentiments, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate has depreciated to a six-week low against the US dollar. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's currency declined 0.66 percent to IDR 11,521 per US dollar by 16:22 local Jakarta time. In fact, several negative domestic sentiments are the reason behind the current depreciation. Firstly, revived concerns about Indonesia's current account deficit and, secondly, concerns about capital outflows due to dividend payments.
After having recorded a five-day winning streak, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) fell 0.10 percent to 4,892.29 points on Monday (21/04). The forming of a doji star and limited movement of the IHSG (due to reduced buying volume) implied that - without the publication of good news triggering positive market sentiments - the index would decline. Today's depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and mixed Asian indices were reasons for investors to engage in profit taking.
Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) posted another small gain on Wednesday (16/04), thus extending its winning streak to four days. The index gained 0.06 percent to 4,873.01 points. Despite slowing GDP growth in China, a depreciating rupiah exchange rate (responding to slightly higher US chain store sales and expected higher US building permits as well as US manufacturing production) and foreign investors recording a net sell, the index stayed in the green zone.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate moved within limited range on Wednesday. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency depreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 11,436 per US dollar. Since Thursday (10/04), the rupiah has had to cope with pressures as Indonesia's legislative election was unable to provide political certainty. On the other hand, the country's improved economic fundamentals - easing inflation and the narrowing current account deficit - have resulted in capital inflows, thus supporting the rupiah.
