Sama dengan industri otomotif, industri sepeda motor Indonesia juga merasakan dampak dari penurunan permintaan sejauh ini di tahun ini. Karena perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dikombinasikan dengan suku bunga domestik yang tinggi dan melemahnya nilai rupiah, daya beli masyarakat Indonesia telah berkurang dan karenanya para konsumen Indonesia telah menjadi lebih berhati-hati dalam membeli sepeda motor dan mobil. Akibatnya, jumlah stok sepeda motor di dealer-dealer lokal telah meningkat dan salah satu cara untuk menjaga rasio penawaran-permintaan yang sehat adalah dengan mengurangi produksi sepeda motor.

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According to the latest survey of Bank Indonesia (the central bank of Indonesia), the country’s January retail sales accelerated 10.4 percent year-on-year (y/y), up from the 3.3 percentage point growth pace (y/y) in the preceding month. Retail sales in the first month of the year in Southeast Asia’s largest economy accelerated because of higher sales of information & communication equipment (+29.9 percent y/y) as well as food, beverages & tobacco products (+15.1 percent y/y).

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Domestic motorcycle sales in Indonesia declined 5 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 680,642 units in October 2014 (from the same month last year). Particularly weaker sales of the underbone motorcycle impacted negatively on total October motorcycle sales. As people are concerned about a looming subsidized fuel price hike this month (causing accelerated inflation, thus curbing people’s purchasing power), consumers postpone the purchase of a motorcycle. The government is expected to raise prices of subsidized fuels by almost 50 percent.

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Motorcycle sales in Indonesia increased 16.0 percent month-on-month (m/m) to 711,857 units in September 2014. Sigit Kumala, Chairman for Commercial Affairs at the Indonesian Motorcycle Association (AISI), said that improved motorcycle sales are caused by the start of the harvest season in several regions across Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Successful harvests have put downward pressure on commodity prices and thus have a positive impact on Indonesian’s purchasing power.

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Exports of Indonesian-made cars and motorcycles are expected to grow sharply in 2014 and 2015, although coming from a low base and rather insignificant compared to domestic sales. These rising export figures are made possible by enhanced domestic production capacity. Indonesian exports of motorcycles are expected to rise 122 percent to 60,000 units in 2014, while exports of cars are expected to rise 93 percent to 386,000 units in 2015. Although there is still a long road to go, Indonesia is increasing its status in these industries.

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Car sales in Indonesia fell 17 percent (month-on-month) in July 2014 to 91 thousand vehicles, while motorcycle sales plunged 28 percent to 539,171 over the same period. The main reason for this sharp decline is the limited number of working days in July due to the Lebaran holiday (also known as Idul Fitri and which marks the end of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan). As a consequence of this public holiday, production of cars and motorcycles declined, and less cars and motorcycles could be distributed to Indonesian dealers (wholesalers).

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The Idul Fitri celebrations (also known as Lebaran) in Indonesia appear to take place in a safe and orderly manner. Idul Fitri is an important religious holiday for Muslims as it stresses the importance of unity for the Islamic community, and marks the end of the holy fasting month (Ramadan). Business comes to a near stand-still in Indonesia during these days, and Jakarta, the political and economic center of Indonesia, has become empty after millions of people went back to their hometowns ahead of Idul Fitri (this is known as the annual mudik tradition).

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Indonesian motorcycle sales are forecast to rise in 2014 according to Sigit Kumala, Chairman of the Indonesian Motorcycle Manufacturers Association (AISI). Although sales in the first four months of 2014 (January-April), only grew 3.8 percent (year-on-year), sales are expected to grow more markedly in the second quarter of the year. However, sales may be curbed in May due to the presence of four public holidays. In May, consumers are expected to spend money on recreational activities instead of a new motorcycle.

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Car and motorcycle sales increased rapidly in Indonesia throughout March 2014, primarily due to an improved distribution network. In the previous months, heavy rains amid a peak of the rainy season (causing floods in various parts of Indonesia) resulted in the postponement of car and motorcycle purchases. Data from the Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (Gaikindo) indicated that car sales surged 18 percent (year-on-year, yoy) to 113,277 units in March 2014, while motorcycle sales grew 9.2 percent (yoy) to 728,820 units.

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The Asean Automotive Federation (AAF) stated that motorcycle sales growth in the ASEAN region was recorded at 5 percent (year on year) in 2013. Motorcycle sales rose from 10.52 million units in 2012 to 11.09 million in 2013. It is interesting to note that motorcycle sales in Indonesia accounted for 70 percent of total motorcycle sales in the ASEAN region last year. Indonesian sales ammounted to 7.7 million units, followed by Thailand (2 million), Philippines (752,835), Malaysia (546,719) and Singapore (11,650).

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Seiring dengan semakin tingginya daya beli masyarakat Indonesia, pembelian kendaraan bermotor, seperti sepeda motor dan mobil, pun terus meningkat. Tahun 2012, berdasarkan data Asosiasi Industri Sepeda Motor Indonesia (AISI), penjualan sepeda motor memang ada penurunan sebanyak 12 persen, yakni dari 8,01 juta unit pada tahun 2011 menjadi 7,06 juta unit tahun 2012. Salah satu faktor yang berada di balik penurunan itu adalah adanya kebijakan pemerintah mengenai persyaratan uang muka kredit kendaraan bermotor yang diberlakukan sejak pertengahan tahun 2012.

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Astra International, Indonesia's largest listed company by market capitalization, presented its Q1-2013 financial results yesterday. The company, which represents the dominating force in Indonesia's automotive sector, posted a seven percent fall in net earnings (YoY) to IDR 4,310 trillion (USD $444.3 million) amid Indonesia's rising labour costs, weak commodity prices, increased competition in the country's car sector and effects of new minimum down-payment regulations in automotive Shariah-financing.

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The heavily subsidized fuel price of Indonesia is likely to be raised next month according to Indonesian media sources. Various high officials, including Economic minister Hatta Rajasa, discussed the possibility to raise the fuel price from IDR 4,500 (USD $0.46) to IDR 6,500 (USD $0.67) per liter starting from May. This increase will only apply to private passenger cars, and not to motorcycles and public transportation. However, president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has not made up his mind yet.

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