Pada Mei 2015 Pemerintah Indonesia akan menawarkan keringanan pajak pada perusahaan-perusahaan yang mengekspor minimal 30% dari produksi mereka. Pada awal bulan ini, Presiden Indonesia Joko Widodo menandatangani sebuah paket kebijakan yang mencakup keringanan pajak untuk para eksportir dan juga keringanan pajak untuk perusahaan-perusahaan multinational yang bersedia mereinvestasi keuntungan di Indonesia daripada mengirimkan keuntungan dan dividen kepada para pemegang saham di luar negeri. Paket ini didesain untuk memperbaiki neraca perdagangan Indonesia (dan neraca transaksi berjalan).

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In line with other Asian emerging market currencies, the Indonesian rupiah is depreciating against the US dollar on Monday’s trading day (20/04). According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s currency had depreciated 0.25 percent to IDR 12,882 per US dollar at 13:00 pm local Jakarta time. However, Head of Research at NH Korindo Securities Reza Priyambada believes that the currency cannot depreciate much further as positive economic data provides enough support for the rupiah.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that the country’s current account deficit has eased to 1.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2015. This estimate is lower than the institution’s initial forecast of 2 percent of GDP. Main reason for this more optimistic view is that Indonesia experienced a USD $2.43 billion trade surplus in the first quarter of 2015. Particularly the unexpectedly-wide USD $1.13 billion trade surplus in March will manage to ease pressures on the country’s current account.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Wednesday (15/04) that Indonesia posted a USD $1.13 billion trade surplus in March 2015, the country’s fourth straight monthly trade surplus, and almost twice the size that analysts had forecast earlier. Despite the monthly trade surplus being good news, data also showed that both Indonesian exports and imports contracted. Exports were down 9.8 percent (y/y) to USD $13.71 billion in March, while imports fell 13.4 percent (y/y) to USD $12.58 billion.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to maintain its key interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent at Tuesday’s Board of Governors’ Meeting (14 April 2015). The institution also left its deposit facility and lending facility at 5.50 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia considers this level to be effective in order to push the country’s inflation rate back into its target range of 3-5 percent (y/y) in both 2015 and 2016. It is also convinced that this interest rate environment will improve the current account balance.

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Saham di Indonesia dan nilai tukar rupiah menguat tajam pada hari Kamis (19/03) setelah Federal Reserve menunda menaikkan suku bunga acuannya dalam Pertemuan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) selama dua hari yang berakhir pada hari Rabu (18/03) karena inflasi Amerika Serikat (AS) masih rendah sedangkan pertumbuhan ekonomi AS sedikit melambat. Bank sentral AS menberikan sinyal bahwa Fed tidak terburu-buru untuk menaikkan suku bunga acuannya. Di sisi lain, Fed juga menghapuskan kata 'sabar' dari panduannya untuk suku bunga (yang berada dalam posisi paling rendah sejak akhir 2008).

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Bank Sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memutuskan untuk tetap menjaga suku bunga acuannya pada 7,5% sebagai hasil keputusan pertemuan Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) yang dilakukan hari ini. Suku bunga overnight deposit facility dan suku bunga lending facility dipertahankan masing-masing 5,5% dan 8%. BI menganggap bahwa kondisi suku bunga saat ini sesuai dengan targetnya untuk mendorong inflasi ke dalam target antara 3,0% sampai 5,0% dalam basis year on year (y/y) di tahun 2015 dan mengurangi defisit neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia antara 2,5% sampai 3,0% dari produk domestik bruto (PDB).

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Setelah serangkaian data ekonomi yang baik (terutama data tenaga kerja di Amerika Serikat) pasar menduga Federal Reserve akan menaikkan tingkat suku bunganya pada kuartal kedua atau ketiga tahun ini dan karenanya dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) dapat bullish momentum (hampir menjadi posisi tertinggi selama 11 tahun terakhir). Karena prediksi yield yang lebih tinggi di AS, modal kembali masuk ke negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di dunia ini. Pada saat yang sama, hal ini menimbulkan kerugian besar pada mata uang di negara-negara berkembang, termasuk nilai tukar rupiah yang turun 6% terhadap dollar AS pada tahun ini.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that the country’s trade balance will show a USD $500 million surplus in February 2015 on the back of increased manufacturing exports, the higher price of crude palm oil, and lower oil imports. In January, Indonesia’s trade balance recorded a USD $710 million surplus, divided into a USD $748 million surplus in the non-oil & gas trade balance and a USD $38.6 million deficit in the oil & gas trade balance.

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Di Indonesia, lampu sorot tetap tajam terfokus pada pelemahan drastis rupiah. Karena semakin berkembangnya spekulasi bahwa US Federal Reserve akan segera menaikkan tingkat suku bunga pinjamannya, aset-aset pasar berkembang (baik mata uang maupun saham) cenderung melemah. Walau sebagian besar mata uang Asia melemah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS), rupiah lebih rentan karena Indonesia sedang mengalami defisit transaksi berjalan yang besar. Hal ini menginformasikan kepada para investor bahwa negara ini bergantung pada capital inflows dari negara-negara asing.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia or BI) announced on Wednesday (15/05/13) that the country's external balance has improved during Q1-2013 as non-oil and gas trade were up. Indonesia's current account deficit stood at USD $5.3 billion (2.4 percent of GDP) in Q1-2013, compared to the previous quarter's deficit of USD $7.6 billion (3.5 percent of GDP). Indonesia has experienced a widening trade deficit, although it recorded a trade surplus of USD $304.90 in March, the first trade surplus since September 2012.

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This week, the World Bank published its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ, edition March 2013) titled 'Pressures Mounting'. It reports on key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. To read the whole report, please visit the World Bank's website at www.worldbank.org or download this edition directly through this link. Below we present the executive summary.

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Recent concerns about a global currency war, which is considered to threaten worldwide economic and financial stability, has prompted Indonesia's Economic minister Hatta Rajasa to ensure that Indonesia will not participate in such a tactic. The Central Bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has in fact been selling US dollars to support the IDR rupiah, which has been under growing pressure lately due to Indonesia's current account deficit and the risk of capital outflows.

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