Per 1 April 2016 Indonesia's premium gasoline and diesel fuel prices decline by IDR 500 (approx. USD $0.04) per liter. Provided no shocks occur on the international crude oil market, these prices will remain at this level up to 31 September 2016. In January 2015 the Indonesian government scrapped generous subsidies for premium gasoline and capped the subsidy for diesel fuel at IDR 1,000 per liter. Ever since, Indonesian authorities evaluate prices of premium and diesel each quarter and determine prices based on crude oil price movements on the international market.

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The banking sector of Indonesia is expected to rebound in 2016 due to the lower primary reserve requirement ratio for rupiah deposits (6.5 percent), lower cost of funds as well as operational costs, rising credit volume (due to the lower interest rate environment) and improving purchasing power. The banking sector is also expected to feel the positive impact of the stimulus packages unveiled by the Indonesian government aimed at strengthening domestic businesses and improve the investment climate. And lastly, banks are to benefit from the government's push for infrastructure development.

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Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2016 could reach 5 percent (or more) year-on-year provided that the government manages to optimize spending on infrastructure projects and improve people's purchasing power. Large drops in domestic car and motorcycle sales so far this year show that Indonesia's purchasing power remains bleak. Other indicators - such as cement and retail sales - are also not too strong. Firmanzah, economist at the Paramadina University, said the 0.09 percent (m/m) deflation that occurred in February could be a sign of further weakening purchasing power.

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Astra International reported a 25 percent year-on-year (y/y) decline in net profit to IDR 14.4 trillion (approx. USD $1.1 billion) over 2015. This is the company's lowest net profit figure in the past five years. Main reasons for this weak performance is falling domestic consumption in Indonesia and persistently sliding commodity prices. Astra International, an investment holding company, is among the largest diversified conglomerates in Indonesia and regarded the barometer of the Indonesian economy due to the group's presence in various sectors.

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Sesuai dengan prediksi dan kecenderungan umum sepanjang tahun ini, penjualan mobil Indonesia turun 4,4% menjadi 87.311 unit pada bulan November 2015. Pada periode Januari-November 2015, total penjualan mobil di negara itu mencapai 940.317 unit, turun 16,7% dari penjualan mobil di periode yang sama tahun lalu. Penyebab utama dari performa yang lemah ini adalah melemahnya daya beli masyarakat Indonesia akibat perlambatan ekonomi negara ini, inflasi yang tinggi (dalam tiga kuartal pertama tahun ini), dan harga komoditi yang rendah.

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Indonesian motorcycle sales declined 8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 535,682 units in November 2015 from 582,331 units in the same month last year. In the first 11 months of 2015, Indonesian motorcycle sales stand at a total of 5.6 million units, down 18.5 percent (y/y) from sales in the same period last year, reflecting weakened purchasing power in Southeast Asia's largest economy amid the economic slowdown, weak commodity prices, and high inflation during the first three quarters of the year. The Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI) expects to see 6.3 million sold motorcycle units in full-year 2015.

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In its latest Indonesia Property Watch report, Fitch Ratings states that housing demand in Indonesia remained weak in the third quarter of 2015, leading to property developers' decision to postpone a number of new projects. Low commodity prices and high inflation (up to Q3-2015) led to sluggish demand and tepid economic growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Fitch Ratings said residential property price growth in Indonesia continued to slow for the eight consecutive quarter and believes prices are to remain muted in the coming year.

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Production of cars in Indonesia is expected to decline 15 percent (y/y) to an estimated 1.1 million vehicles in 2015, far below the target (1.6 million vehicles) set in the automotive industry roadmap desinged by the Indonesian Industry Ministry. This drop is due to the slowdown in car sales in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Slowing economic growth, which dragged down Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to a six-year low, resulted in weakening purchasing power of Indonesian consumers.

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Despite weakening purchasing power in an economy that has lost its growth momentum since 2011, Indonesia's largest packaged-food company Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur contains a number of advantages that are believed to lift the company's profit figures. Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur is a subsidiary of Indofood Sukses Makmur, a leading total food solutions firm in Southeast Asia's largest economy. The Indofood Group is known as the world's largest instant noodles producer.

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Third-quarter corporate earnings of Astra International, one of Indonesia's largest diversified conglomerates, cause concern that economic growth of Indonesia has continued to slow in Q3-2015. Corporate earnings of Astra International are a solid indicator of the country's total growth as the company is engaged in basically all key sectors of the economy. Astra reported a 17.2 percent decline (year-on-year) in net profit to IDR 12 trillion (approx. USD $888 million). Sales fell 8 percent (y/y) to IDR 138 trillion.

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Chief executive officers (CEOs) in Indonesia have become slightly less optimistic about the Indonesian economy and politics. This makes sense considering the presence of simmering global trade tensions, sharp rupiah depreciation against the US dollar, and Bank Indonesia's recent series of interest rate hikes.

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There are signs that household consumption in Indonesia is rebounding ahead of this year's Idul Fitri holiday. This would be a great boost for Indonesia's overall economic growth as private consumption accounts for around 57 percent of the nation's total economic growth. One of the reasons why Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been stuck around the 5 percent (y/y) mark in recent years is subdued household consumption (which has fallen slightly below the 5 percent y/y mark).

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Corporate earnings of Indonesia-based food manufacturer Indofood Sukses Makmur, which ranks among the biggest companies that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, are affected by subdued household consumption and fierce competition in the processed foods and beverage sector of Indonesia. Indofood Sukses Makmur has operations in each stage of the food manufacturing process, ranging from the production and processing of raw materials to consumer end-products on retailers' shelves.

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Consumer goods companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange are expected to experience two good years in 2018 and 2019 due to the presence of the "political years" (regional elections in 2018 followed by legislative and presidential elections in 2019). Traditionally, consumption rises amid these "parties of democracy" and therefore those consumer goods companies with strong brands are expected to see rising sales in this period.

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Household consumption in Indonesia is expected to improve in 2018. This assumption is based on a number of indicators that show a positive trend. For example, consumer confidence in Indonesia rose to 126.4 points in December 2017. The country's macroeconomic picture is also strengthening with accelerating economic growth, low inflation and a stable (or actually appreciating) rupiah rate.

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Within Indonesia it is still being debated whether consumers' purchasing power has really weakened in the third quarter. Some argue consumers are currently focused on saving their money rather than spending it (this explains rising third-party funds in Indonesia's banking system). Others argue that Indonesia's household consumption data are distorted because this year's Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations fell in the second quarter of the year (whereas in 2016 these celebrations fell in Q3).

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Over the past couple of months there have been many reports about Indonesia's weak consumer purchasing power. For example, the Indonesian Retailers Association (Aprindo) said it detected rather weak retail sales during this year's Idul Fitri period (the week-long holiday that marks the end of the Islamic fasting month). Whereas these sales rose 16.3 percent during last year's edition of Idul Fitri, they rose only by an estimated 5-6 percent this year.

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Bank Indonesia (BI) is the central bank of the Republic of Indonesia, and was known as "De Javasche bank" or "The Java Bank" in the colonial period.  Bank Indonesia was founded on 1 July 1953 from the nationalization of De Javasche Bank. As an independent state institution, Bank Indonesia is fully autonomous in formulating and implementing each of its assumed tasks and most policy goals tend to center around the ability to stabilize prices in the economy.

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Packaged food producer Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur, subsidiary of Indofood Sukses Makmur, is expected to see rising profit in the second half of 2016 on the back of lower prices of raw materials (particularly wheat flour, the key ingredient for instant noodles), the stronger rupiah and improved purchasing power of Indonesia's consumer force. Meanwhile, the company may manage to curb losses that originate from the beverage segment. Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur has 6 business segments: noodles, dairy, snack foods, food seasoning, nutrition and special food products, and beverages.

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Growth in the fast moving consumer goods sector will surely boost overall growth and the financial performance of Indofood Sukses Makmur, one of Indonesia's largest food manufacturing firms. Moreover, the stronger rupiah and lower costs of raw materials will also impact positively on the company's earnings. Indofood Sukses Makmur, part of the Salim Group, offers a wide variety of food and beverage products to Indonesian consumers ranging from instant noodles, dairy, snacks, food seasoning, and nutrition to special foods and beverages.

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