Based on the quick count results, presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto will win the 2024 presidential election by a comfortable margin. Not only does he enjoy around 57-59 percent of the national votes, but he also seems to control at least 20 percent of the votes in over 20 provinces. This would mean that a second round is not even necessary. Still, we have to wait for the official result that is scheduled to be released on 20 March 2024.

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Today -14 February 2024- a total of 204.8 million Indonesian voters are allowed to visit the ballot boxes to vote for their preferred presidential candidate and political party for the 2024-2029 period. Voting takes place between 07:00 am and 13:00 pm (local time).

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In this month’s update, we are only focusing on the latest developments in terms of the upcoming 2024 legislative and presidential elections (that are scheduled for 14 February 2024). And so, for a wider analysis and background of these elections, we refer the reader to our articles published in earlier reports.

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Each quarter we present an update on the 2024 legislative and presidential elections of Indonesia. These elections are important as Indonesia is still a young democracy where policies can change rather suddenly and drastically.

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While the 2024 general elections of Indonesia (involving both the presidential and legislative elections) are scheduled to be held on 14 February 2024, we expect to see a growing focus on these approaching elections throughout 2023. The reason is that campaigning will kick off before the end of 2023 (namely on 28 November 2023).

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Those who closely follow Indonesian media should have noticed that there has been an increase in coverage of the approaching 2024 presidential election. This involves articles and analyses of the electability of certain political persons (including polls and surveys) but also articles that we consider (hidden) marketing.

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On Thursday (27.06.2019) Indonesia's Constitutional Court read out its verdict on the subject of alleged election campaign violations in the 2019 presidential election that was held on 17 April 2019. Defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto had filed the legal challenge as he felt the official results (which had been announced by Indonesia's General Elections Commission/KPU) were heavily influenced by widespread fraud and vote-buying.

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In the early morning of Tuesday 21 May 2019, Indonesia's General Elections Commission (KPU) declared incumbent President Joko Widodo the winner of Indonesia's 2019 presidential election. Meanwhile, the KPU also stated that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) secured most support among the Indonesian people.

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Today, Wednesday 17 April 2019, the Indonesian people vote for the country's presidential and legislative elections. While the legislative elections are not less important, most eyes are set on the presidential election; a battle between incumbent President Joko Widodo and challenger Prabowo Subianto.

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It could be a coincidence but there is a peak in high-profile corruption cases ahead of the 2019 elections. In another article in the October 2018 research report we discuss the cases of the Lippo Group and Sinar Mas Group, two of the biggest conglomerates in Indonesia. It is widely known that big companies have their networks in political circles, such as the House of Representatives (DPR) and at the political top in provinces.

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Recent elections in Indonesia have met with a great deal of attention and look to be a decisive moment for the country. We are looking at a country that has major financial problems and also is making a decision about the direction of its democracy. Prabowo Subianto has pledged to conduct a rollback in some of the aspects of Indonesia’s democracy. So the supporters of Indonesian democracy will be watching very closely to see how the recent election events will unfold.

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Most Asian stock indices were up on Tuesday (15/07) influenced by rising indices on Wall Street and in Europe on the previous day. Also for investors on Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) this meant an opportunity to engage in stock trading even though the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated considerably and political uncertainties remain (as the winner of the Indonesian presidential election remains a question mark). In fact, investors were confused to see the Merah Putih coalition.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.67 percent to IDR 11,665 per US dollar on Monday (14/07) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Meanwhile, the benchmark stock exchange of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) declined 0.23 percent to 5,021.06 points. The main reason for weakening markets in Indonesia is investors’ wait & see attitude ahead of the official result of Indonesia’s presidential election. On 22 July 2014, the General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the winner of the election.

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As had been predicted previously by various popularity surveys, the outcome of the Indonesian presidential election, a race between Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto, was close. In fact, after the unofficial yet reliable quick count results had been collected, both camps claimed a victory. However, the majority of the quick count results show a Jokowi victory with a margin of about five to six percentage points. On 22 July 2014, the Indonesian General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the official result.

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On Tuesday (08/07), both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and stocks continued where they left off yesterday. Supported by optimistic market participants speculating on a Joko Widodo victory in Wednesday’s presidential election, the rupiah appreciated 0.74 percent to IDR 11,626 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, while the country’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) rose 0.72 percent to 5,024.71 points, surpassing the psychological level at 5,000 and approaching its record high level at 5,215 (21 March 2013).

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Indonesian Army Chief of Staff Budiman, without choosing a side, hopes to see a clear victory for one of the presidential candidates - Joko Widodo or Prabowo Subianto - in the election that is scheduled for Wednesday (09/07) as a large win will reduce chances of public disorder caused by disappointed supporters. Budiman said that a gap of at least five percent between the two contenders (based on the quick count results which will be released on the day of election) is considered a safer level.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated sharply on Monday (07/07) due to the strong performance of presidential candidate Joko Widodo (Jokowi) in the presidential debate with rival candidate Prabowo Subianto last Saturday evening. Indonesian media declared Jokowi the winner of the debate because of his confident, eloquent and well-structured performance. This debate, in which the candidates were joined by their running mates, was the fifth and final one ahead of the presidential election on Wednesday 9 July.

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The result of Indonesia’s presidential election (scheduled for 9 July 2014), which has become a tight race between Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo (Jokowi), will for sure have a large impact on foreign investors’ confidence in Indonesian politics and the economy. A few weeks ago, a survey of Deutsche Bank showed that a majority of respondents (consisting of foreign investors) intend to sell their Indonesian assets if controversial candidate Prabowo Subianto will be elected. What are foreigners’ perceptions of a Subianto win?

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Senior economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF), Didier Damanhuri, believes that Indonesia’s two presidential candidates - Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto - are both similar in economic approach as both men are primarily focused on high gross domestic product (GDP) growth as the measurement for economic development, while, in fact, many countries that only focus on GDP growth show a high degree of economic inequality.

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Sunday evening (15/06), the second debate between Indonesia’s two presidential candidates - Prabowo Subianto and Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo - was held. This debate was broadcast live on various Indonesian television stations and - once again - managed to become a trending topic on social media. The debate, the theme of which was ‘development of the economy and social welfare‘, was characterized by a nationalistic and protectionist tone. This tone had already been set by Subianto in the past weeks but now Jokowi also stressed protectionism.

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