With the presidential election of Indonesia (scheduled for 9 July) becoming a battle between Governor of Jakarta Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, and former army general and Suharto crony Prabowo Subianto, it is worth taking a closer look into the ideas and policies that both candidates would like to implement if elected as the next Indonesian president, as well as their stance on specific economic issues. The viewpoints that are mentioned below are based on the documents that both parties provided to the General Election Commission.

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One day after the official announcement that two pairs will compete in the presidential election (9 July 2014), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) and the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate are still in a state of decline. Although yesterday (19/05) the rupiah and IHSG strengthened considerably prior and shortly after Joko "Jokowi" Widodo declared that Jusuf Kalla would be his running mate (the vice-presidential candidate) in the election, markets have been selling Indonesian assets since Monday afternoon.

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After Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo and Jusuf Kalla announced earlier today (19/05) to form a pair in the upcoming Indonesian presidential election (scheduled for 9 July 2014), supported by a coalition consisting of the PDI-P, NasDem, PKB and Hanura, the other pair also presented itself. Prabowo Subianto officially announced that Hatta Rajasa will be his running mate in the election. This pair is backed by Gerindra, PAN, PPP, PKS and Golkar. At the last moment Golkar, second-largest party in the April legislative election, decided to join this coalition.

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It is becoming more and more likely that the Golkar party (the second-largest political party of Indonesia based on the legislative election that was held in April 2014), will join the coalition that consists of the PDI-P (winner of the legislative election), NasDem and PKB. This coalition has already announced its full support for highly popular Governor of Jakarta Joko “Jokowi” Widodo as the coalition’s presidential nominee for the presidential election (9 July 2014). The running mate of Jokowi, however, remains a question mark.

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Chairul Tanjung, one of the richest businessmen of Indonesia, will replace Hatta Rajasa as Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs after the latter - who is also chairman of the PAN party - stepped down from his post to focus on his vice-presidential bid (as running mate of Prabowo Subianto) in the 2014 presidential election (scheduled for 9 July 2014). Today (16/05), Indonesian President Yudhoyono inaugurated Tanjung in the state palace. Tanjung only has five months left in office as a new government will be inaugurated in October 2014.

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The Indonesian presidential election, scheduled for 9 July 2014, is most likely to become a battle between Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and Prabowo Subianto. Although this had already been expected as both men can rely on popular support (according to various surveys) and have the political backing of important political parties, a number of developments on Tuesday (13/05) seem to confirm this expectation. Moreover, there is more clarity about the vice-presidential candidates that will join the July election.

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In Indonesian media it was reported today (13/05) that Hatta Rajasa, the current Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, will meet President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono this afternoon. It is speculated that in this meeting Rajasa wil ask permission to resign from his post in order to be able to run as Prabowo Subianto's running mate in the presidential election (9 July 2014). A 2008 law stipulates that ministers need to resign when participating in the election (as presidential or vice-presidential candidate) to avert a possible conflict of interest.

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Two influential Indonesian political parties, Golkar and Gerindra, may form a coalition in order to nominate a presidential and vice-presidential candidate for Indonesia's presidential election that is scheduled for 9 July 2014. After the PDI-P, which won the legislative election on 9 April 2014 with approximately 19 percent of the vote, Golkar (15 percent) and Gerindra (12 percent) came in second and third. However, both these parties contain a leader who has presidential aspirations.

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No Indonesian political party managed to secure a majority in the legislative election that was held on Wednesday (09/04). Based on various quick counts (that have proved to be reliable in previous elections), the election was won by the PDI-P (19 percent), followed by Golkar (15 percent) and Gerindra (12 percent). This outcome implies that political parties will need to form coalitions in order to be able to nominate a presidential candidate for Indonesia's presidential election that is scheduled for 9 July 2014.

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According to a survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 45.8 percent of the Indonesian electorate have still not decided which party or which presidential candidate to back in the legislative election (9 April 2014) and presidential election (9 July 2014). About 42.4 percent of the electorate knows who they will vote for, while 11.8 percent could not answer. These indications are based on a survey that involved interviews with 1,200 people in 33 provinces between 7-17 March 2014 (with a 2.83 percent margin of error).

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Recent elections in Indonesia have met with a great deal of attention and look to be a decisive moment for the country. We are looking at a country that has major financial problems and also is making a decision about the direction of its democracy. Prabowo Subianto has pledged to conduct a rollback in some of the aspects of Indonesia’s democracy. So the supporters of Indonesian democracy will be watching very closely to see how the recent election events will unfold.

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Most Asian stock indices were up on Tuesday (15/07) influenced by rising indices on Wall Street and in Europe on the previous day. Also for investors on Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) this meant an opportunity to engage in stock trading even though the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated considerably and political uncertainties remain (as the winner of the Indonesian presidential election remains a question mark). In fact, investors were confused to see the Merah Putih coalition.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.67 percent to IDR 11,665 per US dollar on Monday (14/07) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Meanwhile, the benchmark stock exchange of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) declined 0.23 percent to 5,021.06 points. The main reason for weakening markets in Indonesia is investors’ wait & see attitude ahead of the official result of Indonesia’s presidential election. On 22 July 2014, the General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the winner of the election.

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As had been predicted previously by various popularity surveys, the outcome of the Indonesian presidential election, a race between Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto, was close. In fact, after the unofficial yet reliable quick count results had been collected, both camps claimed a victory. However, the majority of the quick count results show a Jokowi victory with a margin of about five to six percentage points. On 22 July 2014, the Indonesian General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the official result.

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On Tuesday (08/07), both the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and stocks continued where they left off yesterday. Supported by optimistic market participants speculating on a Joko Widodo victory in Wednesday’s presidential election, the rupiah appreciated 0.74 percent to IDR 11,626 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, while the country’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) rose 0.72 percent to 5,024.71 points, surpassing the psychological level at 5,000 and approaching its record high level at 5,215 (21 March 2013).

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Indonesian Army Chief of Staff Budiman, without choosing a side, hopes to see a clear victory for one of the presidential candidates - Joko Widodo or Prabowo Subianto - in the election that is scheduled for Wednesday (09/07) as a large win will reduce chances of public disorder caused by disappointed supporters. Budiman said that a gap of at least five percent between the two contenders (based on the quick count results which will be released on the day of election) is considered a safer level.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated sharply on Monday (07/07) due to the strong performance of presidential candidate Joko Widodo (Jokowi) in the presidential debate with rival candidate Prabowo Subianto last Saturday evening. Indonesian media declared Jokowi the winner of the debate because of his confident, eloquent and well-structured performance. This debate, in which the candidates were joined by their running mates, was the fifth and final one ahead of the presidential election on Wednesday 9 July.

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The result of Indonesia’s presidential election (scheduled for 9 July 2014), which has become a tight race between Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo (Jokowi), will for sure have a large impact on foreign investors’ confidence in Indonesian politics and the economy. A few weeks ago, a survey of Deutsche Bank showed that a majority of respondents (consisting of foreign investors) intend to sell their Indonesian assets if controversial candidate Prabowo Subianto will be elected. What are foreigners’ perceptions of a Subianto win?

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Senior economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF), Didier Damanhuri, believes that Indonesia’s two presidential candidates - Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto - are both similar in economic approach as both men are primarily focused on high gross domestic product (GDP) growth as the measurement for economic development, while, in fact, many countries that only focus on GDP growth show a high degree of economic inequality.

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Sunday evening (15/06), the second debate between Indonesia’s two presidential candidates - Prabowo Subianto and Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo - was held. This debate was broadcast live on various Indonesian television stations and - once again - managed to become a trending topic on social media. The debate, the theme of which was ‘development of the economy and social welfare‘, was characterized by a nationalistic and protectionist tone. This tone had already been set by Subianto in the past weeks but now Jokowi also stressed protectionism.

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