Economic growth of Indonesia was weaker-than-estimated in the first quarter of 2016. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), released today (04/05), Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 4.92 percent (y/y) in Q1-2016. Most analysts expected to see a GDP growth pace slightly above the 5 percent (y/y) mark and therefore the publication of BPS was disappointing and raises questions whether Indonesia's economic growth can in fact accelerate significantly in 2016.

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The Indonesian government released the 12th economic policy package on Thursday (28/04). This latest edition focuses on enhancing the ease of doing business for the small and mid-sized companies in Indonesia in a bid to attract more investment, hence giving a boost to economic growth. In the 12th package the government announces it has cut a number of procedures and permits, as well as costs, required for the development of a business. Indonesia's Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution unveiled the package on Thursday in Jakarta's Presidential Palace.

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Indonesia's state bonds are expected to remain a popular investment instrument in the second quarter of 2016 - perhaps even the most popular instrument - due to stable and more attractive yields compared to other investment instruments. Although the Indonesian rupiah and the benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) have both strengthened markedly over the past week (particularly supported by higher crude oil prices), the global economy remains plagued by uncertainties (China's economic slowdown and possible higher borrowing costs in the USA). Analysts say that in this context investor appetite for Indonesian bonds increases.

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In rupiah terms, foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia increased by 19.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 365.9 trillion in 2015, according to the latest data from the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). The BKPM, the central government's investment services agency, said FDI was strong in the fourth quarter of 2015 - rising 26 percent (y/y) - on the back of the government's recently unveiled series of economic stimulus packages.

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The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), the central government's investment services agency, targets to see a 15 percent growth to IDR 594.8 trillion (approx. USD $43 billion) in investment realization in 2016 supported by an improving investment climate in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Franky Sibarani, Head of the BKPM, said the government is particularly eager to see sharp growth in investment realization in the country's manufacturing sector, in infrastructure, services and trade, and in the raw resources industry.

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The Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), the central government's investment service agency, said foreign direct investment (FDI) is projected to account for 65 percent - or IDR 386.6 trillion (approx. USD $28.2 billion) - of total direct investment in Indonesia in 2016. The BKPM sees domestic direct investment realization next year at IDR 208.4 trillion. As such, in total, direct investment realization in Indonesia is estimated at IDR 594.8 trillion (approx. USD $43.4 billion) in 2016.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning that Indonesia's official third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 4.73 percent (y/y), slightly below analysts' consensus at 4.80 percent (y/y). However, Indonesia's economic expansion improved from the six-year low of 4.67 percent (y/y) in the preceding quarter. Still, growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy remains sluggish amid low commodity prices, weak global demand, weaker household consumption, the high interest rate environment, and stagnating investment.

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Jumlah ruang kantor kosong di distrik pusat bisnis (central business district/CBD) Jakarta telah bertumbuh karena penawaran melebihi permintaan, sedangkan aktivitas bisnis di Indonesia telah menurun karena perlambatan ekonomi yang berlanjut di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara ini. Sejak 2011, pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia telah melambat karena pertumbuhan global yang lamban dan rendahnya harga-harga komoditi. Menurut informasi dari Savills Consultants Indonesia, unit dari penyedia jasa real estate global Savills Plc yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek London, persentase ruang kantor kosong di Jakarta bertumbuh dari 4,8% di 2014 menjadi 8,4% di pertengahan 2015.

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Today, the Indonesian government announced it extended a tax incentive for “pioneering” industries. This term refers to those industries that are considered key industries that cause a multiplier effect in the Indonesian economy (hence boosting economic) and provide employment opportunities for the local population. Examples of such industries are oil refinery, infrastructure, maritime transport, telecommunications, downstream metal production and agriculture processing. The extended incentive is effective per 16 August 2015.

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On the sidelines of the 24th World Economic Forum (WEF) on East Asia, Indonesia’s Chief Economic Minister Sofyan Djalil said that - despite global challenges - the government maintains its economic growth target of 5.7 percent (y/y) in 2015. However, he added that it will require great effort to achieve this target. One key strategy to achieve the target is to attract foreign investment through several policies including tax incentives and by easing the country’s bureaucratic hurdles for investment permits.

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The Investment Coordinating Board of Indonesia (in Indonesian: Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal, or BKPM) reported that total direct investment realization in Indonesia was recorded at IDR 170.9 trillion in the second quarter of 2017. This constitutes a 12.7 percent growth pace from IDR 151.6 trillion worth of total direct investment in the same quarter one year earlier. Thomas Lembong, Head of BKPM, said investment realization managed to absorb 345,323 Indonesian workers in Q2-2017.

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Unilever Indonesia, one of the largest consumer goods producers in Indonesia, will continue to focus on the strengthening of its production lines. The company plans to invest up to USD $500 million over the next five years. Sancoyo Antarikso, ‎External Relations Director & Corporate Secretary at Unilever Indonesia, said the funds will be used to expand production capacity of the company's nine factories across Indonesia.

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Around the globe there are plenty of fraudulent investment scams offered to investors (for example the "ponzi scheme", "pump and dump", and many others). This also occurs in Indonesia, or, related to Indonesia. Perpetrators can be Indonesian or foreign. In case of foreigners, the offshore investing scheme is a popular scheme (and a fairly simple one in the era of Internet). Criminals offer victims a lucrative investment opportunity in Indonesia, promising big profits. However, investors will never see their money again.

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Donald Trump becoming next US president in January 2017 will not affect foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia according to the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). Trump's election caused a huge wave of uncertainty in financial markets worldwide. However, the BKPM remains committed to its investment realization targets (including both domestic and foreign direct investment) of IDR 594.8 trillion (approx. USD $44.7 billion) in 2016 and IDR 631.5 trillion (approx. USD $47.5 billion) in 2017.

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According to the latest data from Indonesia's Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), investment realization (consisting of both foreign and domestic direct investment) in Indonesia grew 10.7 percent (y/y) to IDR 155.3 trillion in the third quarter of 2016. Cumulatively, investment realization in Indonesia stands at 453.4 trillion in the first nine months of 2016, achieving about 76 percent of the full-year target (IDR 594.8 trillion). Most likely, the BKPM's full-year target will be achieved.

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According to the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), the government agency that provides investment services and forms the primary interface between the Indonesian government and businesses, it has assisted 59 companies through the three-hour licensing service that was started on 11 January 2016. Originally, this service was only available to big investors who either invest at least IDR 100 billion (approx. USD $7.5 million) or generate 1,000 new job positions for Indonesian workers. However, a Presidential Instruction also opened this special service to investment in four infrastructure-related sectors.

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In the first three policy meetings of 2016, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) cut its benchmark BI rate gradually yet aggressively from 7.50 percent to 6.75 percent as inflation, the rupiah rate and Indonesia's current account deficit were regarded as 'under control'. At the same time, Indonesia's lender of last resort acknowledged the BI rate has failed to influence borrowing costs and market liquidity effectively and therefore decided to adopt the seven-day reverse repurchase rate (reverse repo) as the nation's new benchmark starting from August 2016.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) revised down its projection for Indonesia's economic growth in 2016 to the range of 5.0 - 5.4 percent (y/y), slightly below its previous forecast in the range of 5.2 - 5.6 percent (y/y). Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said the central bank decided to trim its projection for gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year due to sluggish global economic growth, low commodity prices, and Indonesia's slightly disappointing Q1-2016 GDP growth figure at 4.92 percent (y/y).

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It is estimated that Indonesia will need some USD $450 billion in funds to finance the government's infrastructure development plans for the 2015-2019 period. However, through the state budgets the government can only deliver USD $230 billion, or roughly 50 percent of required funds. The remainder should originate from the private sector (30 percent of total funds) and state-controlled enterprises (20 percent). However, is it likely that the private sector (both foreign and domestic) is to come up with USD $141 billion for investment in infrastructure up to 2019?

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Indonesia's economy to expand 4.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016, slightly up from a 4.8 percentage point (y/y) growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015. On Tuesday (15/03) Luis Breuer, IMF Mission Chief for Indonesia, said the Washington-based lender projects limited growth (+0.1 percent) of Indonesia's private consumption this year. Regarding growth of investment and government spending in 2016, the IMF holds a more positive view. On the same day, the World Bank cut its forecast for Indonesia's 2016 GDP growth by 0.2 percent to 5.1 percent.

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