Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Export:

    2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013¹
Production
(million metric tons)
  16.8   19.2   19.4   21.8   23.5   26.5    27.5
Export
(million metric tons)
   n.a   14.2   15.5   15.6   16.5   18.1    20.0
Export
(in USD billion)
   n.a   15.6   10.0   16.4   20.2   21.6    23.0

¹ preliminary result
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) and Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture

Production of CPO in Indonesia is expected to rise 12 percent to 2.35 million tons in April 2014, while reserves are forecast to fall by 4.8 percent to 2 million tons. Usually, production of CPO in Indonesia increases starting from March (lasting until September) because of the commodity's growing cycle. Meanwhile, Malaysian CPO exports surged 28 percent in the first ten days of May 2014.

However, the El Nino weather phenomenon may curtail Indonesian CPO production in 2015. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has previously stated that a new El Nino cycle may start in July 2014. El Niño, which occurs once every five years on average, involves periodical warm ocean water temperatures off the western coast of South America which can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean. Its impact on harvests around the globe varies; sometimes passing almost unnoticeable (for example in 2010), but on other occassions its effects can be felt worldwide. El Nino is expected to bring a dry spell to Southeast Asia, thus impacting on output of CPO and other agricultural commodities. Both the Goldman Sachs Group and Barclays have listed palm oil as crops that can be hurt by the 2014 El Nino cycle.

The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) is expected to release April CPO export figures next week.


Listed Indonesian CPO Companies' Financial Results Q1-2014 (in billion rupiah):

                       Revenue                    Net Profit
Company   Q1-2014   Q1-2013
% Growth   Q1-2014
  Q1-2013
% Growth
Astra Agro Lestari     3,725     2,723      36.7     784.6     356.3     120.2
Austindo Nusantara Jaya     398.2     409.2       2.7      44.6      44.2      0.9
Dharma Satya Nusantara     1,238     799.2      54.9      149      21.6     589.8
Gozco Plantations      85.4      68.2      25.2      -8.4        4     -310
Jaya Agra Wattie     214.7     164.9      30.2      30.3      27.6       9.7
PP London Sumatra Indo.     1,279      912      40.2     223.6     100.5     122.4
Provident Agro     244.4     152.5      60.2      85.2      26.4     222.7
Sampoerna Agro     649.6     585.5      10.9      55.4      22.9     141.9
Salim Ivomas Pratama     3,171     3,096       2.4      192      99.8      92.3
SMART     9,072     5,589      62.3     888.2     553.1      60.5
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana     524.2     435.3      20.4     196.1     148.8      31.7
Tunas Baru Lampung     1,158      873      32.6     131.9      77.8      69.5
Bakrie Sumatera Plant.     659.2     481.3      36.9     296.8     -62.9     571.8
Total    22,418    16,289      37.6
    3,069     1,420     116.1

Source: Investor Daily


Further Reading:

Export of Indonesian Crude Palm Oil Rises due to Increased Demand
Forecasts Suggest that New El Niño Cycle May Be Rather Strong in 2014
Indonesian Crude Palm Oil Producers Post Good Financial Results in Q1-2014
Overview of Indonesia's Palm Oil Industry


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