23 October 2025 (closed)
Jakarta Composite Index (8,274.35) +120.80 +1.49%
Waspadalah terhadap penipu yang aktif di WA mengatasnamakan Indonesia Investments
Indonesian Economy Expands by 5.04% in Q3-2025, in Line With Projection
Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.04 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2025 (Q3-2025), a growth rate that is in line with our projection (5.0 percent y/y). But it also means a slowing growth rate compared to Q2-2025, when the economy surprised analysts with a 5.12 percent y/y) growth rate.
On Wednesday (05 November 2025) Indonesia's Statistical Office (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released the country's latest data.
As usual, we will release an in-depth analysis of the Q3-2025 GDP data in the next couple of days. However, what we can say after quickly browsing through Indonesia's latest GDP data is that household consumption remained strong (at 4.89 percent y/y) but did ease slightly compared to the second quarter (4.97 percent y/y). This might be related to the Idul Fitri celebrations that occurred in April 2025. This Idul Fitri period, which always triggers a peak in consumption, fell in Q2-2025 creating a high base.
Meanwhile, government spending rose strongly in Q3-2025 (by 5.49 percent y/y) after having contracted in the previous quarter. It is believed that various government economic stimulus packages are behind this. For example, the government extended the Government-Borne Income Tax (PPh 21 DTP) incentive, a program that provides a 100 percent tax exemption on employee income for a few months for workers in key sectors, particularly tourism, hotels, restaurants, and cafés.
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) did show a significantly easing growth rate at 5.04 percent (y/y) in Q3-2025 (from 6.99 percent y/y in the preceding quarter), with a slowing growth rate particularly noticeable in (1) construction and (2) machinery and equipment.
Lastly, exports grew at a significantly higher pace (9.91 percent y/y) in Q3-2025 compared to imports (1.18 percent y/y), which paves way for a widening trade surplus.
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