11 October 2019 (closed)
USD/IDR (14,139) -18.00 -0.13%
EUR/IDR (15,578) +16.98 +0.11%
Jakarta Composite Index (6,105.80) +82.16 +1.36%
We had hoped for a continuation of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG)'s rebound after forming a green candle. It failed, however, due to negative market sentiments brought on by the bailout of Cyprus. Also, selling pressures on American stock markets late last week blocked a potential longer rally. The IHSG felt the impact of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) that fell after a weaker NY Empire State Manufacturing Index as well as Consumer Sentiment.
The weakening of Asian stock markets was followed up by the weak opening of European stock markets, and thus could not pull the IHSG back into the green zone.
During today's trading day, the IHSG reached its highest level (4,822.20) at the start of session one and its lowest level (4,782.00) just before pre-closing. At the end of Monday's trading day, it stood at 4,802.83, a 0.34 percent decline compared to Friday. Trade volume and total value of transactions fell. Foreign investors mostly bought Indonesian stocks, while domestic investors mostly sold theirs.
The IDR Rupiah turned negative, influenced by a falling Euro due to the bailout problem of Cyprus. Cyprus is currently the fifth Euro-zone country (after Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) that requested for a bailout. It will receive bailout funds totaling €10 billion (US $13 billion) to avert a default, but with the requirement that the government of Cyprus will levy all citizens' bank deposit accounts. Market participants fear this might trigger a run on banks and spread to other countries.
Asian stock markets were down due to the impact of Cyprus. The Chinese Yuan strengthened amid worries for a stricter policy in China's property sector. House prices in China were reported to have risen. Of a total of 70 cities, 62 showed a price increase. Houses in Beijing rose 5.9 percent, and those in Guangzhou 8.1 percent in February.
As writing this column, European stock markets are down due to the crisis in Cyprus, and its possible effects on the rest of Europe. Stocks in Europe's banking sector are falling the most as fears arise that there might emerge a run on banks (also outside Cyprus). Moreover, Italy's and Spain's trade balances were negative and thus intensified the negative market sentiments in Europe. It is expected that the American stock markets will follow this negative path. Due to the recent long rally, investors might use the current context to engage in profit-taking.