Poverty in Indonesia declined to the lowest level ever in March 2018 (Indonesia's Central Statistics Agency, or BPS, releases poverty figures twice per year, covering the months March and September). Based on the latest data, Indonesia's relative poverty figure fell to 9.82 percent of the total population. Thus, 25.95 million Indonesians are now categorized as poor.

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There are doubts whether Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth can reach 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2018 as Indonesia is experiencing a couple of major challenges. Challenges include the global trade war, the fragile rupiah, Bank Indonesia's higher benchmark interest rate, the current account deficit, and political tensions ahead of the 2019 legislative and presidential elections. Currently, Indonesia Investments' forecast for Indonesia's economic growth is set at 5.2 percent (y/y) in 2018.

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The big news story today is that US tariffs on USD $34 billion worth of Chinese goods came into effect this morning (06/07). Considering China immediately imposed retaliatory tariffs on US imports, it means we are witnessing the start of the global trade war. There have been major concerns over simmering trade tensions ever since US President Donald Trump announced steep steel and aluminum tariffs back in late-February 2018. Now, however, the trade war has really arrived.

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Indonesia's Agriculture Ministry is optimistic that the nation's tea production can reach 140,234 tons in full-year 2018, up modestly (+0.6 percent) compared to tea production in the preceding year (139,362 tons). Rising tea output is targeted to come on the back of the government's efforts to encourage the optimization of tea productivity. Key strategy is to make more efficient use of the tea plantations. Currently, there are many empty spots in these plantations. By planting new trees on these empty spots, tea production could to rise.

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