Indonesian inflation remained under control in July 2019 although it was slightly higher than our estimate. Still, authorities will need to carefully monitor prices of specific food commodities amid the long dry season as inflation of the raw foodstuffs expenditure group has remained relatively high.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on 1 August 2019 that the country’s headline inflation was recorded at 0.31 percent month-on-month (m/m) in July 2019, or the highest July inflation rate since 2016. In 2016, the Ramadan month and Idul Fitri celebrations – which both trigger a traditional peak in inflation amid robust growth in consumption - covered the start of July and that explains why monthly inflation was rather high in July 2016. However, since the Islamic lunar calendar year is 10-11 days shorter than the solar year and contains no intercalation, both the Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations fall much earlier in 2019 (they fell at the start of June 2019), hence – in theory – inflationary pressures on food items should be much lower this year's July.
Read the full article in the July 2019 edition of our monthly research report. You can purchase the report by sending an email to firstname.lastname@example.org or a WhatsApp message to the following number: +62(0)8788.410.6944
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