Indonesia Investments Report - April 2021 Edition: Modest Islamic Celebrations
Subscriber Update - Economic Impact of Ramadan, Idul Fitri & Mudik
Update COVID-19 in Indonesia: 1,713,684 confirmed infections, 47,012 deaths (9 May 2021)
9 May 2021 (closed)
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Berita Hari Ini Core Inflation
In line with expectations, October 2020 brought mild inflation to Indonesia, thereby allowing the country’s consumer price index (CPI) to rebound after experiencing an unprecedented three consecutive months of deflation (July-September 2020).
In line with expectations, Indonesia’s inflation rate accelerated in August 2019. While the month of August normally brings mild deflation to Southeast Asia’s largest economy in the aftermath of the Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations (a period when demand for food and transportation peaks), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia’s monthly inflation in August was recorded at 0.12 percent month-to-month (m/m).
Indonesian inflation remained under control in July 2019 although it was slightly higher than our estimate. Still, authorities will need to carefully monitor prices of specific food commodities amid the long dry season as inflation of the raw foodstuffs expenditure group has remained relatively high.
Although Indonesia’s May consumer prices rose at their quickest pace in more than a year (which exceeded our expectations), Indonesian inflation remains at a comfortable level (for Indonesian standards).
Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), which were released on 1 April 2019, Indonesian consumer prices continued to ease in March 2019 (in line with estimates). However, what is remarkable is that Indonesia’s annual inflation rate – 2.48 percent (y/y) in March 2019 – fell below the central bank’s target range (Bank Indonesia has set its inflation target for full-year 2019 at the range of 2.5–4.5 percent y/y). Indonesia’s latest inflation figure is the nation’s lowest inflation since December 2009. By Indonesian standards, inflation is currently remarkably low, hence it should manage to encourage household consumption.
For the 4th year in a row Indonesian inflation was under control. Based on data from Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the nation’s annual headline inflation rate was 3.13 percent in full-year 2018. By Indonesian standards, that is a low inflation figure. The final figure even fell below the central government’s 3.5 percent (y/y) target that was set in the 2018 state budget and it fell below our (revised) prediction of 3.25 percent (y/y). But it did fall conveniently within the central bank’s wide target range of 2.5 – 4.5 percent (y/y).
Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the nation’s annual headline inflation rate increased 3.23 percent year-on-year (y/y) in November 2018. The result is higher than we had anticipated and also implies that Indonesia’s consumer price index has now accelerated for a second straight month.
The latest data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) show that Indonesia’s inflation rate accelerated more than we had expected. Indonesia’s consumer price index rose 0.28 percent month-on-month (m/m) in October 2018 and 3.16 percent year-on-year (y/y).
Indonesia's inflation rate was recorded at 0.28 percent month-on-month (m/m) in July 2018, slightly below estimates. Still, the country's annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.18 percent (y/y) in July, from 3.12 percent in the preceding month.
Indonesian inflation was mild at 0.59 percent month-on-month (m/m) in June 2018, a month in which rising consumption amid the latter half of the Ramadan month and subsequent Eid al-Fitr celebrations gives rise to inflationary pressures in the world's largest Muslim-majority nation. On an annual basis, Indonesian inflation eased to 3.12 percent (y/y), down from 3.23 percent (y/y) in the preceding month.
Artikel Terbaru Core Inflation
On Monday 1 July 2019 Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia’s latest inflation data. The data show that headline inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy eased to a level of 0.55 percent month-on-month (m/m) in June 2019, down from 0.68 percent (m/m) in May 2019 when price pressures peaked due to Ramadan and Lebaran celebrations. This period always gives rise to a significant boost in consumption, hence prices of foodstuffs peak. Meanwhile, people also tend to buy new clothes, bags and shoes because they want to look good at these celebrations.
Rising commodity prices are good for the Indonesian economy because the country is one of the world's biggest commodity exporters. However, rising commodity prices will also make it more difficult for the government to keep inflation within its target range of 2.5 - 4.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018.
In line with expectations, Indonesia's inflation rate eased to 2.79 percent year-on-year (y/y) in August 2016, from 3.21 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Consumer price inflation in Indonesia fell on the back of declining prices after the Islamic celebrations of Ramadan and Idul Fitri ended in July. On a monthly basis, Indonesia recorded deflation of 0.02 percent (m/m) in August. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector of Indonesia turned positive again.
The first day of the month - in case of a working day - implies that investors can count on the release of several macroeconomic data from Indonesia, specifically inflation and manufacturing activity. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning (01/06) that Indonesia's consumer inflation reached 0.24 percent (m/m), or 3.33 percent (y/y), in May 2016. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to a reading of 50.6 in May from 50.9 one month earlier. Lets take a closer look at these data.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see deflation at 0.15 percent month-to-month (m/m) in February 2016. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said lower (government) administered prices in combination with low core inflation will be the recipe for deflation in the second month of the year. The lower administered prices that are primarily the cause of deflation consist of fuel prices, air fares and 12-kilogram liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) canisters. In the first month of the year Indonesian inflation accelerated to 4.14 percent (y/y).
After having experienced two consecutive months of deflation in September and October, Indonesia is expected to see inflation again in November, primarily on higher food prices (chicken meat and rice). Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, expects an inflation rate of 0.2 percent (month-on-month) in November. This would mean that inflation in full-year 2015 is likely to reach 3 percent (y/y), in line with earlier estimates and within - or perhaps slightly below - Bank Indonesia's target range of 3 - 5 percent (y/y) of inflation in 2015.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mengumumkan hari ini (01/09) bahwa inflasi Indonesia telah sedikit menurun menjadi 7,18% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di Agustus 2015, dari 7,26% (y/y) di bulan sebelumnya. Pada basis month-on-month, inflasi naik 0,39% di bulan Agustus, di bawah perkiraan para analis. Sementara itu, sektor manufaktur Indonesia terus berkontraksi di bulan Agustus, meskipun kondisinya membaik dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya.
Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memprediksi kenaikan inflasi di bulan Juni dan Juli karena perayaan Ramadan dan Idul Fitri, kemungkinan dampak fenomena cuaca El Nino, dan tahun ajaran baru. Bank Indonesia memprediksi akan ada inflasi 0,66% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) di bulan Juni 2015, yang terutama didorong oleh harga bahan pangan yang tidak stabil (fenomena normal menjelang Idul Fitri). Pada basis year-on-year (y/y), inflasi Indonesia diprediksi untuk meningkat menjadi 7,40%, dari 7,15% di bulan Mei.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Monday morning (04/05) that Indonesia’s inflation accelerated to 6.79 percent year-on-year (y/y) in April 2015. On a month-to-month basis, Indonesian inflation was recorded at 0.36 percent in April. Although this result is in line with analysts’ previous projections, April inflation realization is in sharp contrast with the ‘usual’ inflation pace in the fourth month of the year. Usually, Indonesia records slight deflation in April as prices ease amid the peak of the harvest season.
Menurut data terakhir dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Indonesia mencatat inflasi bulanan sebesar 0,17% pada bulan Maret 2015. Ini adalah bulan pertama tahun ini Indonesia mencatat inflasi bulanan. Pada bulan Januari dan Februari, Indonesia mengalami deflasi masing-masing 0,24% dan 0,36% pada basis month-to-month (m/m). Inflasi Maret terutama disebabkan karena penyesuaian harga yang diatur: harga yang lebih tinggi dari bensin (oktan rendah), diesel, dan tabung gas elpiji 12 kg. Penyesuaian-penyesuaian ini dibutuhkan karena kenaikan harga minyak dan pelemahan rupiah.
