Global credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s remains the only credit rating agency among the big three to maintain its BB+/stable rating on Indonesia’s sovereign credit (which is one notch below investment grade). Both Fitch Ratings (BBB-/stable) and Moody’s Investor Service (Baa3/stable) had already brought Indonesia back to investment grade in 2011 and 2012. Standard & Poor’s has been reluctant to raise Indonesia’s status as it wants to see more results from the country’s economic policy reforms.

Lanjut baca ›

Setelah mengalami dua bulan deflasi berturut-turut, Indonesia kembali mengalami kenaikan Indeks Harga Konsumen pada bulan Maret 2015. Menurut data Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Indonesia mencatat kenaikan inflasi 0,17% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) pada bulan Maret. Hasil ini sejalan dengan proyeksi para analis. Pada basis year-on-year (y/y), inflasi Indonesia naik 6,38% dari bulan yang sama di tahun kemarin, sedikit lebih tinggi dari 6,29% (y/y) yang tercatat di bulan Februari. Inflasi inti negara meningkat menjadi 5,04% (y/y) di bulan Maret.

Lanjut baca ›

The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that Indonesia’s inflation rate in March will be around 0.3 to 0.4 percent month-to-month (m/m), slightly higher than its earlier forecast of around 0.28 percent (m/m). Later this week, Statistics Indonesia will release the country’s March inflation figure. In February inflation eased to 6.29 percent year-on-year (y/y) - from 6.96 percent (y/y) in the preceding month - amid declining fuel and food prices despite some inflationary pressures caused by higher rice prices.

Lanjut baca ›

Despite some protests in Indonesia’s capital city of Jakarta, the Indonesian government raised the price of subsidized low-octane gasoline (premium) from IDR 6,900 (USD $0.53) per liter to IDR 7,400 (USD $0.56) over the weekend (a 7.2 percentage point price increase). Meanwhile, the price of subsidized diesel (solar) was raised from IDR 6,400 (USD $0.49) to IDR 6,900 per liter (+7.8 percent). The price increase was considered necessary as crude oil prices had increased over the past month, while the rupiah continued to depreciate.

Lanjut baca ›

The Indonesian government may raise the price of subsidized gasoline for April 2015 as the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) rose through February and March from USD $52 per barrel to USD $57 per barrel based on data from the upstream oil & gas regulator SKK Migas. After the Indonesian government drastically reduced fuel subsidy spending at the start of 2015, subsidized gasoline prices are now set each month, in line with price fluctuations on the world market. For subsidized diesel the government provides a fixed IDR 1,000 per liter.

Lanjut baca ›

Bank Dunia menerbitkan laporan terbarunya mengenai Perekonomian Indonesia pada tanggal 18 Maret 2015. Dalam laporan yang berjudul 'High Expectations’ ini Bank Dunia memuji perkembangan reformasi awal di beberapa area kunci seperti subsidi bahan bakar minyak dan juga bertambahnya tindakan-tindakan reformasi kunci yang sedang dalam proses. Ini membangkitkan harapan yang tinggi mengenai perekonomian Indonesia pada jangka waktu menengah maupun panjang. Namun, Pemerintah juga menghadapi halangan-halangan untuk menerapkan reformasi struktural lebih lanjut karena prospek pertumbuhan yang menurun.

Lanjut baca ›

Pada 2 Maret 2015, Badan Pusat Statistik mengumumkan bahwa tingkat inflasi tahunan Indonesia menurun pada bulan Februari. Di bulan Februari, tingkat inflasi tahunan di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara menurun menjadi 6,29% dari 6,96% pada bulan sebelumnya. Hal ini disebabkan karena turunnya harga bahan bakar dan harga bahan makanan (terutama cabai) kendati adanya tekanan inflasi yang dipicu oleh tingginya harga beras. Pada periode antar bulan (month-to-month), Indonesia mencatat deflasi sebesar 0,36% pada bulan Februari, setelah Januari 2015 juga mencatat deflasi bulanan.

Lanjut baca ›

Tingkat inflasi di Indonesia diperkirakan makin menurun pada Februari 2015 karena harga bahan-bahan makanan menurun. Pengecualian ada pada harga beras. Harga beras telah meningkat 30% dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya menjadi Rp 12 ribu per kilogram di bulan Februari. Harga beras yang lebih tinggi disebabkan karena banyaknya halangan dalam operasi-operasi untuk distribusi raskin dikombinasikan dengan musim panen yang terlambat di tahun ini (antara Maret dan Juni). Fluktuasi harga beras, makanan pokok untuk 250 juta penduduk Indonesia, memiliki dampak yang signifikan terhadap tingkat inflasi di Indonesia.

Lanjut baca ›

Based on preliminary data, domestic car sales in Indonesia fell 7.2 percent (y/y) to 96,149 vehicles in January 2015 from the same month in 2014. It is believed that the recent (subsidized) fuel price reforms, implemented by the Joko Widodo administration in November and January (which led to accelerated inflation), have made consumers hesitant to buy a car. Car sales are an important indicator to measure consumer confidence and the general state of the economy. In general, when car sales rise the economy is growing.

Lanjut baca ›

The latest Consumer Confidence Survey released by Indonesia’s central bank indicated that Indonesian consumers were more optimistic in January 2015 (compared to the previous month) on the back of recent fuel price cuts. The index, based on a total of 4,600 households across 18 major Indonesian cities, climbed to 120.2 points in January, up from 116.5 in the preceding month (a score above 100 signals consumer optimism). In December the index had declined due to higher administered fuel prices.

Lanjut baca ›

In the first five months of 2013, Indonesia’s main stock index (IHSG) rose 16.62 percent to a near record high level at 5,068.63 points on Friday (31/05/13). Initially, both analysts and investors were concerned that Indonesia would experience its traditional ‘May Cycle’, the term which refers to the usual fall of Indonesia’s index in the month of May. However, reality proved different as the index recorded a small gain of 7.71 points (0.15 percent) last month.

Lanjut baca ›

Asian stock markets were mixed on Thursday (30/05). Particularly Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) was negatively influenced by Wednesday's falling stock indices in Europe and the USA. In this context, Indonesia's main index (IHSG) was hit as well and fell 1.37 percent to 5,129.65 points. Moreover, the continuing decline of the IDR rupiah makes market participants less enthusiastic to purchase Indonesian stocks. Foreigners were also anxious to sell part of their stock portfolios.

Lanjut baca ›

Although the stock markets of the USA and England were closed on Monday (27/05), strong European and Asian indices indicated that market participants were back in business. This also applied to the main stock index of Indonesia (IHSG), which regained the points it had lost on Monday. A number of blue-chips were chased by investors: Astra International, Unilever Indonesia, Lippo Cikarang and Semen Indonesia. Foreigners were particularly interested in stocks of Bank Mandiri, Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa, and Waskita Karya.

Lanjut baca ›

Although Indonesia’s government stresses the need to relieve pressure on the state budget (by raising the price of subsidized fuel next month), it plans to allocate an additional IDR 16.1 trillion (USD $1.65 billion) to this year’s fuel subsidy budget. The additional allocation, which covers fuel, LPG and vegetable fuels, will raise government expenditure on fuel subsidies to IDR 209.9 trillion (USD $21.50 billion) from the IDR 193.8 trillion drafted in the original 2013 state budget (APBN 2013). Total energy subsidies will grow to IDR 309.9 trillion this year.

Lanjut baca ›

After setting a new record last Friday, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) lost its strength on Monday (13/05/13). A number of factors were behind the decline. Foreign investors mostly sold their Indonesian assets as the record high level of the IHSG made it tempting to engage in profit taking. Moreover, the still unclear policy regarding Indonesia's subsidized fuel causes uncertainties. Lastly, Asian stock indices were mixed while European indices opened lower on Monday.

Lanjut baca ›

One of the sectors that showed exceptional growth in 2012 was Indonesia's property market. On average, net profit of companies engaged in Indonesia's property sector grew 68 percent during the full year. Of the 45 property companies that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), 26 posted net profit growth that exceeded 50 percent. But the success story did not end there. In the first quarter of 2013, the property sectoral index of the IDX continued its fast pace by rising over 41 percent.

Lanjut baca ›

The Jakarta composite index (IHSG), Indonesia's main stock index, was mixed last week. During the week it lost 53 points or 1.04 percent to finish at the level of 4,925.48. A number of blue chips, such as Bank Mandiri and Astra International, were hit by large sell-offs as the downgrade of S&P's debt outlook for Indonesia's BB+ rating kicked in and triggered serious negative market sentiments. Last week, I already discussed the 'Bloody May' phenomenon, the month that usually results in a correction.

Lanjut baca ›

International financial services company Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgraded its outlook on Indonesia’s BB+ rating from positive to stable as the agency assessed that Indonesia's reform momentum is fading and the external profile is weakening. The decision came as a surprise as Indonesia's government had just declared to reduce its massive spending on fuel subsidies starting from next month. These subsidies were the main reason why S&P had not upgraded Indonesia's credit rating to investment grade yet.

Lanjut baca ›

After two consecutive days of decline, the Jakarta Composite index (IHSG) had no intention to continue its fall. Indonesia's main index was able to rise 0.43 percent to 4,999.75 points on Monday 29 April 2013. Stocks that had been weakening in recent days were popular among investors. Moreover, both Asian stock indices and foreign net purchases of Indonesian stocks supported Indonesia's index, although it fell short of reaching the psychological boundary of 5,000 points.

Lanjut baca ›

One piece of evidence of international confidence in the Indonesian economy is the steady upgrades in the country's credit ratings by international financial services companies such as Standard & Poor's, Fitch Ratings and Moody's. In late 2011, Fitch Ratings was the first to reinstate Indonesia's investment grade status after a 14-year hiatus. In January 2012, Moody’s followed suit citing the country’s resilient economy. S&P may follow soon, depending on the fuel price hike issue.

Lanjut baca ›