Pada 12 Juli 2015, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari newsletternya. Newsletter gratis ini, yang dikirimkan kepada para pelanggan kami sekali seminggu, berisi berita-berita paling penting dari Indonesia yang telah dilaporkan di website kami di tujuh hari terakhir. Kebanyakan topik mengenai isu-isu ekonomi seperti update pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto 2015, pasar properti, keuangan syariah, defisit transaksi berjalan, pendaftaran baru di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), defisit anggaran 2016 budget, investasi, dan banyak lagi.

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The Indonesian government targets to narrow the budget deficit to between 1.9 and 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016 from a projected budget deficit of 2.2 percent of GDP in 2015. Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said on Monday (06/07) that in 2016 the government will continue to prioritize spending on infrastructure development as well as energy and food. President Joko Widodo is scheduled to officially announce the 2016 State Budget in a speech in front of parliament on 16 August 2015.

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Pemerintah Indonesia meneruskan perjuangan mereka untuk meringankan kekuatiran masyarakat tentang dampak dari rupiah yang lemah pada perekonomian Indonesia. Bahkan, Pemerintah menekankan bahwa rupiah yang lemah akan berdampak positif pada neraca perdagangan dan neraca transaksi berjalan karena produk-produk ekspor Indonesia menjadi lebih kompetitif. Selama satu minggu ini, rupiah melemah 1% terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Sejak awal 2015, rupiah telah jatuh 4,4% terhadap dollar AS, karenanya menjadi salah satu mata uang di negara-negara berkembang Asia dengan performa terburuk di tahun ini.

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Despite pressures on the rupiah exchange rate amid a bullish US dollar ahead of monetary tightening in the USA, the Deutsche Bank, one of the world's leading financial service providers, holds a positive view on Indonesian bonds due to Indonesia’s recent fuel subsidy reforms and solid macroeconomic fundamentals. According to the German lender, Indonesian bond yields seem to have decoupled from the currency’s recent depreciating trend although “continued foreign exchange stress could eventually lead to capitulation from bond investors.

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Indonesian Finance Minister Chatib Basri stated that the Indonesian government plans to set aside a total of IDR 10 trillion (USD $837 million) in the state budgets of 2014 as well as 2015 to support the poor people of Indonesia through social safety programs. This is yet another indication that prices of subsidized fuels will be raised before the end of the year. Recently, it has been increasingly speculated that Indonesian president-elect Joko Widodo (“Jokowi”) will raise these prices by IDR 3,000 (USD $0.25) per liter.

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Soon-to-be president of Indonesia Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) stated that he intends to cut the large fuel and electricity subsidies once in office. Indonesia’s Revised State Budget of 2015 (RAPBN 2015) allocates IDR 363.5 trillion (about USD $31.2 billion) to energy subsidies. This figure accounts for about 18 percent of total government spending (IDR 2,019.9 trillion) set for 2015. Although the energy subsidies aim to support the poorer segments of Indonesian society, they cause complex problems in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.  

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Five emerging markets, India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and Indonesia, have become known to the world in 2013 as the ‘Fragile Five’, a term coined by analysts at Morgan Stanley. This term refers to those five emerging economies that were considered most vulnerable to the winding down of the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program (bond-buying program) as capital inflows dried up, or, in fact reversed. The five countries were assessed as risky due to their twin fiscal and current-account deficits, slowing economic growth and high inflation.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo expects that inflation in July 2014 will be under control. However, there are several factors that trigger inflationary pressures. These include the holy Islamic fasting month Ramadan and subsequent Idul Fitri celebrations at the month-end, as well as higher electricity tariffs and the start of the new school season (inflation in July is traditionally higher than in other months due to seasonal factors). Martowardojo still believes that the year-end inflation target 3.5 to 5.5 percent can be achieved.

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In anticipation of tighter US dollar supplies, the government of Indonesia is considering the issuance of euro-denominated bonds in 2014. This would be the first time for the government to issue bonds in the currency. Robert Pakpahan, head of the debt office within Indonesia's Finance Ministry, said that they are discussing both euro- and yen-denominated sovereign bonds, equivalent to USD $6 billion. The bonds will be used to cover the country's budget deficit, which is set at 1.69 percent of GDP or IDR 175.4 trillion (USD $15.5 billion) in 2014.

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The outcome of Indonesia's 2014 budget deficit is expected to be higher than initially planned in the 2014 State Budget Draft (RAPBN 2014). In the 2014 draft, the deficit is proposed to amount to IDR 154.2 trillion (USD $13.6 billion), or 1.49 percent of Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP). However, the government's latest estimate indicates a widening of the deficit to IDR 209.5 trillion (USD $18.5 billion), equivalent to 2.02 percent of GDP. The wider deficit is mainly caused by Indonesia's depreciating rupiah as well as the weak global economy.

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This year, Indonesia will have to face declining production numbers in its oil and gas sector. Gas output is assumed to decline by 14.77 percent compared to last year, while oil output will reach similar levels as in 2012, provided that there are no disruptions due to bad weather and leakages (a prerequisite that will be hard to meet).

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