In the draft for the State Budget of 2014 (RAPBN 2014), the government of Indonesia projects economic growth of between 6.4 and 6.9 percent. Continued global recovery is expected to result in higher GDP growth compared to 2012 (6.23 percent) as it will result in better demand for Indonesian products, such as commodities. The main pillar of Indonesia's GDP growth - domestic consumption - is expected to grow due to the population's higher purchasing power and the upcoming legislative and presidential elections.

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Market capitalization of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) has surpassed its psychological boundary of IDR 5,000 trillion (USD $512.82 billion) last week, supported by the new record high level position of the Indonesia Stock Index (IHSG) on Friday at 5,145.68 points. Up to 17 May 2013, the IHSG gained 18.41 percent this year, thus outperforming all other major stock indices in Asia except for the Philippines and Japan's Nikkei, which gained 41.64 percent this year amid an aggressive stimulus plan of the central bank of Japan.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia, or BI) kept its benchmark interest rate at 5.75 percent and its overnight deposit facility rate (FASBI) at four percent as the country's core inflation figure is still within the target range of the central bank (3.5-5.5 percent). Core inflation currently stands at 4.12 percent (YoY). However, as the price of subsidized fuel is expected to rise in June, inflation may increase and could trigger a policy response by Bank Indonesia later this year.

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Today, Statistics Indonesia released Indonesia's economic growth figure for the first quarter of 2013. Compared to Q1-2012, Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.02 percent. This growth was supported by almost every sector except for Mining and Extracting, which fell 0.43 percent (YoY), indicating that natural resources are still not back on track. The largest contributor to Indonesia's Q1-2013 growth is Transportation and Communication, which grew 9.98 percent.

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According to data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik), Indonesia was visited by over 725 thousand foreign visitors in March 2013, up 10.1 percent compared to the same month last year. The Indonesian government has set the ambitious target of welcoming a total of nine million foreign tourists in 2013. In 2014, it wants at least 10 million foreigners to visit Indonesia. The government expects these increases to originate mainly from the Asia-Pacific region itself.

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This morning (30/04/13), president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono delivered a speech in which he announced that the price of subsidized fuel will increase to relieve mounting pressures on the government budget deficit. Yudhoyono refrained from mentioning a new price level nor did he announce when the new measure will be implemented. He said that cash compensation programs for the poor need to be prepared first before adjustment of the country's subsidized fuel price can be executed.

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Indonesia's largest listed property developer, PT Lippo Karawaci, will distribute IDR 270 billion (USD $27.8 million) in dividends to its shareholders (IDR 11,86 per share). This amount is equivalent to 25.5 percent of the company's net profit in 2012. The developer posted a 49.7 percent increase in net profit last year to IDR 1.06 trillion (USD $109.3 million). The company is convinced that it will increase its net profit to IDR 1.9 trillion (USD $195.9) in 2013.

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Indonesia's demand for cars stayed strong as the first quarter of 2013 saw double-digit growth in car sales compared to the same period last year. According to Gaikindo (the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association), Indonesia posted an 18 percent growth in car sales in Q1-2013, which translates to 297,785 car units sold in this year's first quarter. However, Gaikindo believes that growth for full-year 2013 will be limited or equal to last year's record sales performance.

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects the Indonesian economy to grow between 6.3 and 6.8 percent in 2013, supported by strong domestic consumption and foreign investment, with inflation rising by about 4.5 percent. Indonesian exports are expected to increase due to better global demand for Indonesia's commodities such as coal and palm oil, with commodity prices rising accordingly. But some problems in Indonesia's financial system remain to be solved.

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Although Indonesia's January cement sales showed robust growth of 15 percent to 4.65 million metric tons (year-on-year), the country's cement sales in February slowed to 8.2 percent (4.39 million metric tons) compared to a year earlier; The slowest pace of growth in six months. Strong annual GDP growth has caused a rise in property and infrastructure projects but a delay in some government projects might be behind the slower cement sales growth in February.

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Senior economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF), Didier Damanhuri, believes that Indonesia’s two presidential candidates - Joko Widodo (popularly known as Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto - are both similar in economic approach as both men are primarily focused on high gross domestic product (GDP) growth as the measurement for economic development, while, in fact, many countries that only focus on GDP growth show a high degree of economic inequality.

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On Monday (23/06), the World Bank released its latest analysis regarding the Indonesian economy. In its report, titled ‘Indonesia: Avoiding the Trap’, the World Bank states that Indonesia needs to implement a six reforms in priority areas in order to avoid the so-called middle income trap (referring to the situation where a country gets stuck at a certain income level). Without these critical reforms, the country’s economic growth will slow and may not be able to escape the middle income trap.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the May 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the BI rate, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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Although the business community in Indonesia requests that the country’s benchmark interest rate (BI rate) is lowered at Bank Indonesia’s next Board of Governor’s Meeting (scheduled for Thursday 12 June 2014), it is highly unlikely that the central bank will alter its BI rate which currently stands at 7.50 percent. The relatively high BI rate curbs business expansion and therefore limits higher economic expansion in Indonesia. However, several factors justify the continuation of the BI rate at 7.50 percent.

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Car sales in Indonesia declined 8 percent to 98,198 units in May 2014 from 106,811 units in the previous month. The Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) said that the decline was the direct consequence of several public holidays (International Labour Day and the commemorations of Buddha’s birthday as well as ascensions of Prophet Muhammad and Jesus Christ). These holidays caused a lower car production rate and a reduced number of car deliveries to wholesale dealers.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia’s economy to grow by 5.3 percent in the second quarter of 2014. If realized, it means that gross domestic product (GDP) of Southeast Asia’s largest economy will accelerate from the disappointing GDP growth result recorded in the first quarter of 2014 (5.21 percent). Perry Warjiyo, Deputy Governor at Bank Indonesia, said that growth in Q2-2014 will be primarily supported by household consumption and investments which traditionally peak in the second quarter.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the April 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the BI rate, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided at today’s Bank Indonesia Board of Governors’ Meeting, convened on 8 May 2014, to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, with the Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate held at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. This policy is consistent with efforts to steer the rate of inflation towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4.0±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.

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After Statistics Indonesia (BPS) had announced on Monday (05/05) that Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.21 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the first quarter of 2014 (considerably below analysts' projections of around 5.6 percent), concerns have risen about the country's economic expansion for the remainder of the year. The government of Indonesia targets a GDP growth rate of between 5.8 and 6.0 percent (yoy). However, several international institutions do not agree with this optimistic target.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Monday (05/05) that the economy of Indonesia - Southeast Asia's largest economy - grew at a much slower pace in the first quarter of 2014 than had been expected by analysts. Gross domestic product growth slowed to 5.21 percent (year-on-year) in Q1-2014, significantly down from the 6.03 percentage growth (yoy) that was recorded in Q1-2013. Gross domestic fixed capital formation (GFCF) slowed to 5.13 percent from 5.9 percent in the same period last year.

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