Sejalan dengan sebagian besar pasar saham dan mata uang di Asia Tenggara, kinerja Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia serta rupiah agak datar dengan kecenderungan melemah sedikit pada hari Selasa (17/02). Kebanyakan investor tampaknya menahan diri sebelum perayaan Imlek pada hari Kamis 19 Februari. Selain itu, pelaku pasar di Indonesia sedang menunggu keputusan suku bunga (BI rate) dari Bank Indonesia hari ini. Sementara itu, gagal pembicaraan antara Yunani dan kreditornya pada Senin merusak sentimen di Asia.

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Benedict Bingham, Senior Resident Representative untuk Indonesia di International Monetary Fund (IMF), memperkirakan bahwa bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) akan terus berkomitmen pada kebijakan moneter yang lebih ketat dalam upaya untuk menjaga fundamental fiskal nasional di tengah tekanan eksternal. Terlepas dari pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang lamban, kenaikan suku bunga di AS (tahun ini) diperkirakan mempengaruhi Indonesia karena akan mendorong aliran keluar modal dari pasar-pasar berkembang.

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The Indonesian government wants to limit investment opportunities in the country’s cement industry in an attempt to maintain a healthy business climate. Indonesian Industry Ministry official Harjanto said that Indonesia’s current cement production capacity is more than enough to meet domestic demand. Given that most established cement producers have expansion plans the influx of new cement producers leads to an oversupply thus reducing companies’ profit margins. The nation’s cement production capacity stands at 77 million tons per year.

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Despite further slowing economic growth in 2014 and possible rupiah depreciation ahead of higher US interest rates later this year, global ratings agency Moody’s Investor Service said that the outlook for Indonesian companies is stable in terms of foreign exchange risks. Brian Grieser, Vice President and Senior Analyst of Corporate Finance at Moody’s, believes that weak rupiah performance is manageable for most of these companies. Starting from mid-2013, Indonesia’s rupiah has depreciated significantly amid US monetary tightening.

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The economy of Indonesia expanded 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 8,354 trillion (USD $664 billion) in 2014, the nation’s slowest annual growth pace since 2009, according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). As such, GDP growth failed to achieve the central government’s 5.5 percentage point growth target that was set in the 2014 State Budget. Indonesia’s economic growth has been slowing since 2011 when it still posted a 6.5 percentage point growth rate (y/y). However, growth is expected to rebound from here.

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The latest Consumer Confidence Survey released by Indonesia’s central bank indicated that Indonesian consumers were more optimistic in January 2015 (compared to the previous month) on the back of recent fuel price cuts. The index, based on a total of 4,600 households across 18 major Indonesian cities, climbed to 120.2 points in January, up from 116.5 in the preceding month (a score above 100 signals consumer optimism). In December the index had declined due to higher administered fuel prices.

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Domestic car sales in Indonesia were slightly down in 2014 compared to the previous year. Amid the slowing economy (Indonesia’s GDP growth may have fallen from 5.8 percent in 2013 to 5.1 percent in 2014) and political uncertainty (triggered by the fragmented results of the country’s legislative and presidential elections) car sales totaled 1.21 million units in 2014, down 1.8 percent from 1.23 million sold vehicles in 2013, according to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo).

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On 18 January 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as presentations at the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, reports from the World Bank, Deutsche Bank, Moody’s and the ADB on the Indonesian economy, Bank Indonesia’s interest rate, and more.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.75 percent at its Board of Governors’ Meeting on Thursday (15/01). The country’s Lending Facility and Deposit Facility were maintained at 8.00 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. According to the bank this interest rate environment is sufficient to push inflation, which has accelerated to 8.36 percent year-on-year (y/y) in December due to fuel subsidy reforms, back towards its target of 3 to 5 percent (y/y) in 2015.

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In terms of market capitalization, the largest listed company on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) is now Bank Central Asia (BCA). BCA, Indonesia’s second largest bank by assets, managed to surpass HM Sampoerna and Astra International at the end of 2014 with a value of IDR 320 trillion (USD $26.6 billion), or 6.1 percent of total market capitalization of the IDX (IDR 5,228 trillion). Despite tougher conditions in Indonesia’s financial sector (amid a higher interest rate environment) shares of BCA rose 36.7 percent in 2014.

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At the monthly policy meeting on 13-14 December 2017, Bank Indonesia decided to hold the benchmark BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate at 4.25 percent, while it maintained the deposit facility and lending facility rates at 3.50 percent and 5.00 percent, respectively, effective per 15 December 2017.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) made another surprise move by cutting its benchmark BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate 25 basis points (bps) from 4.50 percent to 4.25 percent at the September 2017 policy meeting. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia also lowered the deposit and lending facility rates by 25 bps to 3.50 percent and 5.00 percent, respectively, effective per 25th September.

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For the first time since October 2016, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) altered its benchmark BI 7-day (Reverse) Repo Rate. After a nine-month hiatus the lender of last resort resumed monetary easing through cutting the benchmark by 25 basis points to 4.50 percent at the August 2017 policy meeting. Meanwhile, while the deposit and lending facility rates were also cut by 25 bps to 3.75 percent and 5.25 percent, respectively, effective 23rd August 2017.

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After concluding its monthly two-day policy meeting on Thursday (20/07) the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to leave its interest rate environment unchanged. The BI 7-day (Reverse) Repo Rate (BI-7 day RR Rate) was kept at 4.75 percent, while the deposit facility and lending facility rates were kept at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to leave its monetary policy unchanged at the two-day policy meeting in June 2017 that was concluded on Thursday (15/06). As widely expected it kept the benchmark 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 4.75 percent, as well as the deposit facility and lending facility at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. These existing levels are regarded to keep financial markets and the economy stable.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) maintained its benchmark interest rate - the 7-day reverse repurchase rate - at 4.75 percent at the policy meeting on 17-18 May 2017, a decision that is in line with analysts' forecasts. Bank Indonesia said the decision is consistent with its efforts to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability "by driving the domestic economic recovery process", while continue to monitor external threats stemming from US policy directions and geopolitical conditions, specifically in the Korea Peninsula, as well as domestic threats stemming from inflationary pressures and ongoing consolidation in the banking and corporate sectors.

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It is highly unlikely to see the continuation of deflation in April. Last month (March 2017) Indonesia recorded 0.02 percent of deflation, primarily on the back of easing food prices amid the big harvest season. This harvest season will continue into April and therefore we expect few (to none) inflationary pressures stemming from food products. However, administered price adjustments (specifically another round of higher electricity tariffs in March) will impact of April's inflation figure, while consumer prices may also start to feel the impact of the approaching Ramadan month.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark interest rate (seven-day reverse repo rate) at 4.75 percent at the April policy meeting (19-20 April 2017), while its deposit facility rate and lending facility rate stayed at 4.00 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Bank Indonesia considers the current interest rate environment appropriate to face global uncertainties as well as rising inflationary pressures at home.

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Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repurchase rate, or reverse repo) at 4.75 percent in the remainder of 2017. Priasto Aji, economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB), says Bank Indonesia may not need to adjust its key interest rate at all this year even though there is looming further monetary tightening in the USA.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) left its interest rate policy unchanged at the March 2017 policy meeting. This decision was in line with expectations especially after Bank Indonesia officials had stated that they see few room for monetary easing in the foreseeable future considering the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise its key rate several times this year (which could encourage capital outflows from Indonesia), while inflationary pressures in Indonesia are rising.

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