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Berita Hari Ini Commodities

  • Schroders Indonesia: Indonesian Investors More Confident in 2014

    According to a recent survey of Schroder Investment Management Indonesia, subsidiary of the British multinational asset management firm and a leading independent international asset management and private banking group, Indonesian investors feel more confident to invest in Indonesia in 2014. Director of Schroder Indonesia Michael Tjoajadi stated that confidence of Indonesian investors has increased due to improving economic conditions and the long-term prospects of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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  • Gini Ratio of Indonesia May Improve in 2014 on Stable Commodity Prices

    The Gini ratio of Indonesia - the coefficient that measures inequality in income distribution - is expected to improve slightly this year as commodity prices have a stable outlook. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia, the ratio increased significantly since the country's Reformasi period. Between 1999 and 2013, it rose from 0.31 percent to 0.41 percent (a coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, while one implies perfect inequality). In the last three years (2011- 2013), however, the ratio remained stable at 0.41 percent.

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  • Government Aims to Limit Coal Production of Indonesia in 2014

    Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) Bob Kamandanu expects that Indonesia's coal production will decline about 5 percent to 400 million tons in 2014 after the government asked miners to scale back production rates in order to safeguard future domestic supplies as the country needs sufficient energy resources for its future energy supply. Amid low domestic demand, the government asked Indonesian coal mining companies to limit the country's total coal output at 397 million metric tons.

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  • Weather Conditions in Brazil and Indonesia Cause Surge in Coffee Prices

    Prices of coffee have surged 24 percent in 2014 as Brazil experienced the warmest January ever and the least rainfall in 20 years. Being a major arabica bean producer, Brazil's weather conditions particularly influence the arabica coffee price. The arabica coffee price has jumped 26 percent in seven trading sessions, the highest level since July 2000. Meanwhile, weather forecasts do not seem to indicate the arrival of a sufficient amount of rainfall in the remainder of February and March before the dry season kicks in in April.

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  • Weakening Rupiah Threatens to Balloon Indonesia's Subsidy Spending

    The sharply depreciated Indonesia rupiah exchange rate in combination with the inability to raise domestic production of crude oil threatens to balloon government subsidy expenditure. Fuel subsidies may increase 20 percent to IDR 252 trillion (USD $20.8 billion) in 2014 as the rupiah currently has about 14 percent less value (based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index) than the value assumed in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014). The government assumed a rupiah rate of IDR 10,500 per US dollar in the APBN 2014.

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  • Ministry: Coal Production of Indonesia Reaches 421 Million Tons in 2013

    Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that domestic production of coal in Southeast Asia's largest economy reached 421 million tons in 2013. This implies a 7.6 percent growth in production from the previous year (391 million tons). R. Sukhyar, General Director of Mineral and Coal within the Ministry said that Indonesia's production of coal in 2014 is likely to exceed 400 million tons again as global demand for this fossil fuel remains strong. Indonesia is one of the world's largest producers and exporters of coal.

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  • Amid Improving Global Economy, Indonesia Optimistic about GDP Growth

    Forecasts for economic growth in Indonesia in 2014 are still optimistic. The government of Indonesia targets a 6 percent growth rate, while the country's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects GDP growth in the range of 5.8 to 6.2 percent. Although these forecasts clearly fall short of the target set in the country's National Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMN) - which mentions annual GDP growth of between 6.3 and 6.8 percent - the forecasts are still rather positive given the global uncertain and volatile economic context in recent years.

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  • International Monetary Fund: Commodity Market Monthly January

    Last Friday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its January 2014 Commodity Market Monthly. This report provides an update on global commodity prices. According to the report, global commodity prices rose 2.4 percent in December 2013, with increases in most main indices. During 2013, commodity prices increased 0.8 percent, with gains concentrated in the energy sector, up 3 percent from December 2012. Metals prices declined 7 percent due to continued increases in new capacity.

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  • Indonesia May Review its Ban on the Export of Unprocessed Minerals

    Indonesia's state news agency Antara reported that the government may review its Mining Law No.4/2009 which stipulates a ban on the export of raw minerals. This controversial new law, through which the government aims to raise more value-added revenues, caused a shockwave across Indonesia's mining sector because a significant amount of mineral exports constitute unprocessed ones. The law, which is set to be implemented on 12 January 2014, implies that minerals need to be processed domestically first before exports are allowed.

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  • IMF: Slowing Growth and Widening Macro-Imbalances in Indonesia

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) detects a slowdown in GDP growth in major emerging market economies and decline in commodity prices, and more recently, a reversal in push factors tied to a prospective exit from extraordinarily easy global monetary conditions, has put pressure on Indonesia’s balance of payments and heightened its vulnerability to shocks. Domestic policy accommodation and rising energy subsidies have also given rise to increased external and fiscal imbalances.

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Artikel Terbaru Commodities

  • Mining in Indonesia: Concern about High Non-Performing Loan Ratio

    The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in Indonesia's mining and excavation sector has risen drastically over the past year. Moreover, there seems few room for an improvement of the NPL ratio in this sector on the short term because mining and excavation companies are expected to remain amid tough conditions in the remainder of the year. The NPL ratio is a key indicator for measuring bad loans.

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  • Protectionism in Indonesia: Falling Role of Commodities in the Economy

    An interesting story was released on Bloomberg Markets Asia on Wednesday (29/03) about the sliding role of commodities in the Indonesian economy and the need for Southeast Asia's largest economy to find a new growth engine (or better: several new growth engines) that will take the country to economic growth levels of +7 percent year-on-year (y/y) as once pledged by Indonesian President Joko Widodo during his presidential campaign in 2014.

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  • 2009 Mining Law: Indonesia to Stick with Mineral Ore Export Ban?

    It remains unclear whether Indonesia will revise the export ban that is stipulated by the 2009 Mining Law (Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining) and is supposed to come into effect on 12 January 2017. The 2009 Mining Law stipulates a ban on the export of unprocessed and semi-processed ores from Indonesia. The regulation aims to boost development of the nation's smelting capacity, hence becoming an exporter of materials that are positioned higher up in the value chain while curbing Indonesia's current dependence on exports of raw materials.

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  • Vale Indonesia: Tough Times as Long as Nickel Prices Remain Low

    Vale Indonesia, Indonesia's largest nickel producer, is one of those mining companies that has been plagued by low commodity prices. Various securities companies have cut their recommendation for the purchase of Vale Indonesia's shares due to persistently low nickel prices. Net profit of Vale Indonesia is expected to decline by 50 percent (y/y) to USD $26 million in 2016 as the company's average nickel sales price is expected to fall 29.5 percent (y/y) to USD $6,848 per ton this year.

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  • International Monetary Fund (IMF) Sees Indonesia's GDP Growth at 4.9%

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Indonesia's economy to expand 4.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016, slightly up from a 4.8 percentage point (y/y) growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015. On Tuesday (15/03) Luis Breuer, IMF Mission Chief for Indonesia, said the Washington-based lender projects limited growth (+0.1 percent) of Indonesia's private consumption this year. Regarding growth of investment and government spending in 2016, the IMF holds a more positive view. On the same day, the World Bank cut its forecast for Indonesia's 2016 GDP growth by 0.2 percent to 5.1 percent.

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  • Investing in Indonesia's Crude Palm Oil Industry - Introduction

    Although the palm oil industry of Indonesia is resented by many for the negative impact it has on mother nature (for example the seasonal forest fires that occur on parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan), it also constitutes a vital industry: across the globe crude palm oil (CPO) is used for the production of a wide variety of products from food, cooking oil to cosmetics or biodiesel. Indonesia is the world's largest producer and exporter of CPO. This column is the first installment in a series, written by Senior Consultant William Yang, that discusses Indonesia's palm oil industry, particularly the different business models, the risks, and how to invest safely in this industry.

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  • Flip-Flop in Indonesian Politics: Reviewing the Mineral Ore Export Ban

    The government of Indonesia is yet to find a middle way between encouraging the development of processing facilities for the country's mining output and the relaxation of mineral ore exports. Based on Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (New Mining Law), exports of mineral ore should have been fully banned in 2014. However, due to the lack of domestic smelting capacity a last-minute regulation was signed in early January 2014 by former Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono that softened this ban.

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