Last year, the similar scenario happened when fuel subsidies were set at a maximum of IDR 200 trillion in the State Budget but due to sharp rupiah depreciation, falling domestic oil production and continued expensive oil imports (amid Indonesia's rising demand for fuels) subsidy spending for fuels totaled IDR 250 trillion at the end of the year. That year, the government estimated the rupiah at IDR 9,600 per US dollar in the State Budget but it ended the year at over IDR 12,000 per US dollar.

| Source: Bank Indonesia

Last week, the government announced to lower its target for domestic oil production in 2014 from 870,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 820,000 bpd as there has been a delay in the start of production of the Cepu Block (which is said to contain the largest known oil reserves that Indonesia is yet to exploit). Production at this block should have started in May 2014 but was postponed to November 2014 amid various bottlenecks.

Indonesia, once an important oil exporter and member of the OPEC, has shown declining oil production rates for over a decade due to mature oil fields in combination with a lack of exploration and other investments in this sector. Slowing investments are partly caused by a weak regulatory system and legal uncertainty, thus resulting in declining investor confidence.

Further Reading:

Indonesian Government Revises Down Crude Oil Production Target 2014
Overview of Crude Oil in Indonesia: Production, Consumption and Investments
Company Profile of Pertamina: Indonesia's Largest Energy Company