Tahun 2015 adalah tahun yang sulit bagi industri rokok Indonesia karena terjadi kenaikan cukai sebesar 8,7% untuk produk-produk tembakau pada awal tahun 2015 dan melemahnya daya beli masyarakat akibat perlambatan ekonomi negara ini. Pada sembilan bulan pertama tahun 2015 penjualan rokok di Indonesia jatuh 1,3% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) menjadi 232 miliar rokok. Tahun depan, tantangan-tantangan akan tetap ada karena Pemerintah Indonesia mempersiapkan kenaikan pajak tembakau yang baru (23%). Kendati begitu, daya beli masyarakat diprediksi membaik karena pertumbuhan ekonomi mungkin berakselerasi.

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In order to generate more tax revenue in 2016 the Indonesian government plans to raise tobacco taxes by 23 percent (as mentioned in the draft of the 2016 State Budget). This plan resulted in concern among Indonesia’s cigarette producers as the country’s purchasing power has already been curtailed amid the nation’s economic slowdown and high inflation. Contrary to the global trend, the Asian region recorded solid tobacco sales growth in recent years but now these countries seem to join in on anti-tobacco measures such as higher excise taxes and large pictorial warnings on packages.

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After the Indonesian government abandoned the idea to increase excises on cigarettes, the production of cigarettes in Indonesia is expected to increase to between 355 and 360 billion cigarettes in 2014. However, in order to meet that target, it is also important that the country's macroeconomy - particularly the inflation rate - remains stable. This year, Indonesian cigarette production is expected to reach 340 billion cigarettes. Indonesia has one of the world's largest markets for cigarettes.

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Indonesia's slowing economic growth, weaker purchasing power and an 8.7 percent increase in excise on tobacco products (in early 2015) had a relatively small impact on the financial performance of Indonesia's listed tobacco companies HM Sampoerna, Gudang Garam, Bentoel Internasional Investama and Wismilak Inti Makmur. Whereas companies active in various other sectors of the Indonesian economy were plagued by falling revenue and profit figures, these tobacco firms still posted solid gains in revenue and - to a lesser degree - net profit growth. This shows that Indonesian smokers are faithful to their "death stick".

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