Based on a survey that was conducted by the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), the nation's consumer price index is forecast to rise modestly in February 2019.

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For the 4th year in a row Indonesian inflation was under control. Based on data from Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the nation’s annual headline inflation rate was 3.13 percent in full-year 2018. By Indonesian standards, that is a low inflation figure. The final figure even fell below the central government’s 3.5 percent (y/y) target that was set in the 2018 state budget and it fell below our (revised) prediction of 3.25 percent (y/y). But it did fall conveniently within the central bank’s wide target range of 2.5 – 4.5 percent (y/y).

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Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the nation’s annual headline inflation rate increased 3.23 percent year-on-year (y/y) in November 2018. The result is higher than we had anticipated and also implies that Indonesia’s consumer price index has now accelerated for a second straight month.

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The latest data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) show that Indonesia’s inflation rate accelerated more than we had expected. Indonesia’s consumer price index rose 0.28 percent month-on-month (m/m) in October 2018 and 3.16 percent year-on-year (y/y).

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Based on the latest data of Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia experienced deflation of 0.18 percent month-on-month (m/m) in September 2018, a figure that exceeded our expectations. Consequently, Indonesia's annual inflation slowed to a two-year low of 2.88 percent (y/y), down from 3.20 percent (y/y) in August 2018. Year to date, Indonesian inflation eased to 1.94 percent in the January-September 2018 period.

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Indonesia's consumer price index experienced 0.05 percent deflation on a month-on-month (m/m) basis in August 2018, while we had actually expected to see modest inflation (considering imported inflation is bound to rise amid rupiah weakness). However, Suhariyanto, Head of Indonesia's Statistics Bureau (BPS), said Indonesia's consumer price index fell due to a drop in food prices, such as chicken meat and chillies.

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Indonesia's inflation rate was recorded at 0.28 percent month-on-month (m/m) in July 2018, slightly below estimates. Still, the country's annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.18 percent (y/y) in July, from 3.12 percent in the preceding month.

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Indonesian inflation was mild at 0.59 percent month-on-month (m/m) in June 2018, a month in which rising consumption amid the latter half of the Ramadan month and subsequent Eid al-Fitr celebrations gives rise to inflationary pressures in the world's largest Muslim-majority nation. On an annual basis, Indonesian inflation eased to 3.12 percent (y/y), down from 3.23 percent (y/y) in the preceding month.

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Indonesian inflation was slightly below estimates at 0.21 percent month-on-month (m/m) in May 2018 because food price increases were modest amid the Islamic fasting month (Ramadan), a period when consumption (hence demand for food) tends to rise. Although the Muslim community fasts during daytime, in the morning and evening many food parties are organized and therefore, overall, consumption rises during Ramadan and the subsequent Eid al-Fitr celebrations.

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The pace of Indonesia's headline inflation was recorded at 0.10 percent month-on-month (m/m) in April 2018, a relatively high pace compared to April inflation in recent years. However, compared to the preceding month (when the consumer price index rose 0.20 percent m/m) Indonesian inflation eased. Meanwhile, on a year-on-year (y/y) basis inflation accelerated modestly to 3.41 percent (y/y) from 3.40 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Calendar-year inflation accumulated to 1.09 percent in the first four months of 2018.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memprediksi kenaikan inflasi di bulan Juni dan Juli karena perayaan Ramadan dan Idul Fitri, kemungkinan dampak fenomena cuaca El Nino, dan tahun ajaran baru. Bank Indonesia memprediksi akan ada inflasi 0,66% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) di bulan Juni 2015, yang terutama didorong oleh harga bahan pangan yang tidak stabil (fenomena normal menjelang Idul Fitri). Pada basis year-on-year (y/y), inflasi Indonesia diprediksi untuk meningkat menjadi 7,40%, dari 7,15% di bulan Mei.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Monday morning (04/05) that Indonesia’s inflation accelerated to 6.79 percent year-on-year (y/y) in April 2015. On a month-to-month basis, Indonesian inflation was recorded at 0.36 percent in April. Although this result is in line with analysts’ previous projections, April inflation realization is in sharp contrast with the ‘usual’ inflation pace in the fourth month of the year. Usually, Indonesia records slight deflation in April as prices ease amid the peak of the harvest season.

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Inflation in Indonesia is expected to accelerate to 6.80 percent year-on-year (y/y) in April 2015, from 6.38 percent y/y in the previous month, according to the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia). As global oil prices have somewhat recovered from their recent lows, they add inflationary pressures in Indonesia (higher transportation costs). On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, Indonesian inflation is expected to be around 0.35 percent in April. This figure would be in sharp contrast to ‘normal’ April inflation.

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Menurut data terakhir dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Indonesia mencatat inflasi bulanan sebesar 0,17% pada bulan Maret 2015. Ini adalah bulan pertama tahun ini Indonesia mencatat inflasi bulanan. Pada bulan Januari dan Februari, Indonesia mengalami deflasi masing-masing 0,24% dan 0,36% pada basis month-to-month (m/m). Inflasi Maret terutama disebabkan karena penyesuaian harga yang diatur: harga yang lebih tinggi dari bensin (oktan rendah), diesel, dan tabung gas elpiji 12 kg. Penyesuaian-penyesuaian ini dibutuhkan karena kenaikan harga minyak dan pelemahan rupiah.

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Indeks harga konsumen Indonesia turun di bulan Februari 2015, mencatat deflasi 0,36% dalam basis month-on-month (m/m), sementara tingkat inflasi tahunan (y/y) nasional berkurang menjadi 6,29%, turun dari 6,96% (y/y) di bulan sebelumnya. Tekanan-tekanan inflasi berkurang terutama karena menurunnya harga cabai dan bahan bakar. Berkurangnya tingkat inflasi di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara ini bisa menyediakan ruang bagi bank sentral (Bank Indonesia) untuk memotong suku bunga lebih lanjut di tahun ini.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo expects the country’s July 2014 inflation pace to come in the range of 0.80 to 1.20 percent (month-to-month). This relatively high inflation figure is caused by seasonal factors: the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. Ahead and during these festivities, consumers tend to spend more, thus resulting in higher prices in the context of these Islamic celebrations. A recent Bank Indonesia survey showed that inflation already reached 0.80 percent in the first week of July.

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Inflation in June 2014 increased by 0.43 percent (month-to-month, mtm) in accordance with the traditional pattern ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. These occasions always trigger inflationary pressures as consumers increase spending. However, June inflation remains under control and is even lower than the historical average in June in recent years (0.56 percent mtm). On a year-on-year (yoy) basis, inflation stood at 6.70 percent, thus continuing the downward trend since the beginning of 2014.

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Head of Statistics Indonesia (BPS) Suryamin announced on Tuesday (01/07) that the number of poor people in Indonesia declined slightly to 28.28 million people (or 11.25 percent of the total population) in March 2014, from 28.60 million (11.46 percent of the total population) in September 2013. However, compared to March last year, poverty has increased by 110,000 people due to high inflation and a slowing economy; economic growth slowed to 5.78 percent in 2013 and this decline continued to 5.21 percent in the first quarter of 2014.

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Today (02/06), Statistics Indonesia released various important economic data that provide more insight into the state of the Indonesian economy. Two of these indicators - inflation and trade - are discussed in this column. Head of Statistics Indonesia Suryamin announced that inflation in May 2014 rose by 0.16 percent (slightly higher than previously expected), while the April 2014 trade balance of Indonesia recorded a USD $1.96 billion deficit. These data were not well received by the market, evidenced by sharp rupiah depreciation.

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The inflation rate of Indonesia rose slightly in November 2013 (month-to-month) and confirms estimations that inflation in Southeast Asia's largest economy is under control after having accelerated sharply due to the introduction of higher subsidized fuel prices June 2013. In recent months, inflation moved sideways and is expected to ease considerably in the first quarter of 2014. Indonesia's consumer price index rose 0.12 percent in November due to rising electricity, processed foods and health care costs.

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