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The recent decision of Moody's Investors Service to upgrade Indonesia's sovereign credit rating to Baa2 (stable outlook) brought a wave of fresh air to Indonesia's capital markets at a time when concerns over a global trade war rattled global markets. Moody's cited credible and effective fiscal and monetary policies as key reasons for the rating upgrade.
Moody's Investors Services, one of the world's prestigious credit rating agencies, upgraded Indonesia's long-term, foreign currency-denominated debt rating to Baa2 (with a stable outlook), the second-lowest investment grade rating, on Friday (13/04). Moody's cited increasingly credible and effective fiscal and monetary policies as key reasons for the upgrade. The latest upgrade puts Indonesia on par with India and the Philippines.
Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service may cut the credit rating of Indonesia-based property company Lippo Karawaci. Main reason for the cut would be the delay in the property firm's release of its full-year 2017 financial report as well as a high amount of foreign-denominated debt and concern about the company's liquidity. It is the third time since last year that Lippo Karawaci delayed the publication of its financial report.
Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service said it could cut its rating for Indonesia if government revenue remains weak. Indonesia needs to push for structural tax reforms in order to boost tax revenue. Since 2012 Moody's has put Indonesia at Baa3 (investment grade), while in early 2017 Moody's upgraded its outlook for Indonesia from stable to positive.
Today, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to keep its key interest rate - the seven day reverse repo rate - at 4.25 percent, a decision that had been expected by most - if not all - analysts as there have been rising pressures on the rupiah exchange rate after two surprise rate cuts in August and September, while there remain plenty of external matters that make investors careful about investing in emerging market assets.
Moody's Investors Services, one of the big three credit global rating agencies, expects to see Indonesian companies posting steadily growing corporate earnings in 2017. This projection is supported by Indonesia's accelerating economic growth. After experiencing an economic slowdown in the years 2011-2015, the Indonesian economy is expected to grow 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2017, improving from an estimated 5.0 percent (y/y) growth in 2016 and a 4.8 percent (y/y) growth realization in 2015.
Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service believes Indonesia's non-financial companies, specifically those engaged in the commodities sector, will see improving corporate earnings in 2017 due to rising commodity prices and the economic recovery of the USA. In a report released on Monday (21/11), Moody's states that commodity prices are expected to continue their upward movement in 2017. This will trigger investment in the mining, oil & gas and crude palm oil (CPO) sectors.
Contrary to expectations, Standard & Poor's (S&P), the most conservative among the world's top three credit rating agencies, maintained Indonesia's sovereign debt rating at BB+ with a positive outlook. The BB+ rating is the highest junk level, one notch below investment grade. S&P left the door open for a future upgrade but the Indonesian government will need to enhance its fiscal performance. Issues that block an upgrade are rising budget deficits in the years ahead and the decline in Indonesia's corporate credit quality.
Slowly but surely Indonesia is obtaining the investment grade rating from the world's three key credit rating agencies. Fitch Ratings already reinstated Indonesia's investment grade rating in 2011, a step that was followed by Moody's Investors Service in 2012. Although Standard & Poor's (S&P) has been more careful, there emerged speculation that S&P will assign the investment grade status to Indonesia soon (perhaps in June 2016). Last week, a S&P team visited Indonesia - to study the country's latest policy reforms and developments - and signaled that its assessment is positive.
Global credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) appreciates the policy reforms that have been conducted by the Indonesian government because these changes lead to more openness as well as to enhanced competitiveness. Apart from cutting costly energy subsidies (and redirecting a large chunk of available funds to infrastructure development) the government also unveiled 12 economic policy packages since September 2015 (while more packages are in the pipeline) that include matters such as tax incentives and deregulation (aimed at boosting investment).
Artikel Terbaru Moody's Investors Service
Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service signaled in a new research report that it could upgrade Indonesia's current sovereign Baa3 (positive outlook) credit rating provided it detects an improvement in several macro-economic indicators. In 2012 Moody's granted the investment grade status back to Indonesia. Meanwhile, exactly one year ago (in February 2017) it upgraded Indonesia's sovereign credit rating outlook from stable to positive.
Moody's Investors Service, one of the globe's three big credit rating agencies, affirmed Indonesia's Baa3 issuer rating, Baa3 senior unsecured bond ratings, and (P)Baa3 senior unsecured medium term note program rating. However, it also upgraded its credit outlook on Indonesia from "stable" to "positive", implying that Indonesia comes a bit closer to a rating upgrade. Such upgrade would trigger capital inflows (on the back of stronger investor confidence), while the cost of funds would become cheaper for the government when issuing government bonds.
Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings maintained Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at BBB-/stable outlook in May 2016. BBB- is the lowest notch within the investment grade category. In a statement released on Tuesday (24/05) Fitch Ratings expressed that Indonesia's low public debt (at 26.8 percent of gross domestic product), limited risks in the banking sector, and the economic growth outlook at 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016 amid global challenges were all factors that supported the decision of the credit rating agency to keep Indonesia on investment grade status.
Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service expects loan growth in Indonesia to continue to slow in 2016 as sluggish economic growth curtails corporate and individual demand for funding in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Meanwhile, a survey conducted by Standard & Poor's shows that the majority of Indonesians are financially illiterate, implying that the government needs to increase efforts to educate its population. Lastly, Asian Development Bank President Takehiko Nakao is convinced that a US interest rate hike will not cause a new financial crisis in Asia. Lets zoom in a bit further on these three subjects.
Both Morgan Stanley and Moody's Investors Service have cast some negative perceptions on the condition of the Indonesian economy. First, American multinational financial services corporation Morgan Stanley released a report in which it stated that the recent rupiah rally will not last (Morgan Stanley maintains its year-end target of IDR 14,000 per US dollar). Then, global credit ratings agency Moody's criticized Indonesia's recently unveiled third policy package in which the government lowers energy prices for local manufacturers in a bid to support the industry.
Global credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia this year from five percent (y/y) to 4.7 percent (y/y) due to the perceived hard landing of China’s economy in combination with sluggish conditions in Japan and the Eurozone. Weak demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and the top trading partner of Indonesia, is expected to continue to plague Indonesian exports and earnings.
Moody's Investors Service, a global bond credit rating agency, assigned a definitive rating of Baa3 (stable outlook) to Indonesian government notes maturing in 2025 and 2045 (these notes are issued under the government’s global medium-term note program). Moody’s said in a press release on Tuesday (13/01) that the Baa3 government bond rating is supported by the country’s narrow fiscal deficits, low public indebtedness, healthy economic growth prospects, and the large size of Indonesia’s economy.
Moody's Investors Service, one of the big three global credit rating firms, predicts that profit in Indonesia's banking sector remains stable due to strong financial fundamentals. In its report "Indonesia Banking System Outlook", which discusses Indonesian banks' creditworthiness over the next 12 to 18 months, Moody's assesses that - despite an economic slowdown having reduced GDP growth to 5.78 percent in 2013 and puts some pressure on asset quality - high profitability and strong capital levels will continue into 2014.
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