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On Friday (7/12) Indonesia Investments released the November 2018 edition of its monthly research report. The report aims to inform the reader of the key political, economic and social developments that occurred in Indonesia in the month of November 2018 and also touches upon key international developments that impacted on the Indonesian economy.
The Indonesian government announced the 16th economic policy package late last week. This latest package is important for direct investors, including foreign investors as it includes a revision of the country's Negative Investment List (in Indonesian: Daftar Negatif Investasi), hence opening up opportunities for foreigners to invest in Indonesia.
Indonesian Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution said the Indonesian government will announce the 16th economic policy package on Thursday morning (31/08). This new package will aim to boost investment and economic growth of Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy.
After macroeconomic growth was rather disappointing at 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2017, the Indonesian government will soon release a new economic policy package, specifically aimed at boosting investment in Indonesia. However, Indonesia's business world urge the government to first evaluate the effectiveness of preceding policy packages before implementing a new deregulation package. Moreover, some say it would be better to focus on improving confidence among consumers.
The Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) criticizes the 14 economic policy packages that have been released by the Indonesian government between September 2015 and November 2016. While these packages aim at boosting competitiveness, employment opportunities, purchasing power, investment and overall macroeconomic growth, results have been disappointing so far. Ahmad Heri Firdaus, economist at Indef, says the packages are too "general" and thus fail to focus on the specific environment in a specific sector (and-related sub-sectors).
The government of Indonesia will soon release the 15th economic policy package in an effort to maintain the "structural reform momentum" and encourage investment into Indonesia as well as macroeconomic growth. Based on the words of Indonesian Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution, the 15th policy package will touch on subjects related to deregulation, (improvement of the) investment climate, infrastructure, medical equipment, as well as the textile and agri industries.
Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank (ECB) from 2003 to 2011, says the strategy of Indonesian President Joko Widodo to boost overall economic growth (and social development) in Southeast Asia's largest economy through infrastructure development is the correct strategy. Although this strategy requires time, it will result in structural long-term growth. Trichet spoke at an international seminar in Jakarta, themed "Challenges to Global Economy", organized by the Indonesian Deposit Insurance Company (LPS) to mark its 11th anniversary.
Earlier this week the government of Indonesia released its 13th economic policy package. This 13th edition focuses on the reduction of bureaucracy (red tape) in a bid to boost the construction of low-cost housing for the poorer segments of Indonesian society. Currently, property developers are required to obtain 33 permits before they can start to build affordable housing for the low-income people of Indonesia. This results in a costly and time-consuming process.
Recently, most attention has been paid to Indonesia's tax amnesty program launched last Monday (18/07), while the 12 economic policy packages - released between September 2015 and April 2016 by the Indonesian government - have been pushed to the background. These packages, which include tax incentives, deregulation, and somewhat open foreign investment opportunities in Indonesia, were implemented in a bid to boost Indonesia's economic growth. However, according to the latest information, not all 12 economic stimulus packages have been implemented in full force.
The World Bank released the June 2016 edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) report on Monday (20/06). Recently, the Washington-based institution took a rigorous step by downgrading its 2016 global economic growth forecast from 2.9 percent (y/y) to 2.4 percent (y/y). This is a significant downgrade that was primarily due to the weak performance of commodity exporters. Despite this downgrade the World Bank still sees a resilient Indonesian economy, reflected by a GDP growth forecast of 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2016 and 5.3 percent (y/y) in 2017.
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Both Morgan Stanley and Moody's Investors Service have cast some negative perceptions on the condition of the Indonesian economy. First, American multinational financial services corporation Morgan Stanley released a report in which it stated that the recent rupiah rally will not last (Morgan Stanley maintains its year-end target of IDR 14,000 per US dollar). Then, global credit ratings agency Moody's criticized Indonesia's recently unveiled third policy package in which the government lowers energy prices for local manufacturers in a bid to support the industry.
The government of Indonesia unveiled the last installment of a series of three stimulus packages on Wednesday (07/10). The first two installments had been unveiled last month. In general, these stimulus packages aim to boost economic growth of Indonesia (which has slowed to a six-year low) and restore investors' confidence in the Indonesian rupiah and stocks. When markets believed that the Federal Reserve would soon raise its key interest rate, Indonesia was plagued by severe capital outflows pushing the rupiah to a 17-year low.
Pemerintah Indonesia mengumumkan paket kebijakan ekonomi September yang kedua pada hari Selasa (29/09). Paket ini diperkenalkan dalam rangka mendongkrak pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dan mendukung rupiah yang lemah. Pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia telah melambat menjadi level terendah dalam enam tahun terakhir pada 4,67% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di kuartal 2 tahun 2015, sementara rupiah telah melemah ke level terendah dalam 17 tahun terakhir terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Capital outflows dari Indonesia adalah akibat dari pengetatan moneter di Amerika Serikat (AS), rendahnya harga-harga komoditi dan lambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi global (terutama karena penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi Republik Rakyat Tiongkok).
Merespon ekonomi global yang melambat, Presiden Joko Widodo telah mengumumkan paket kebijakan ekonomi yang baru yang bertujuan untuk mendongkrak pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di tengah ketidakjelasan yang tinggi dalam konteks global. Pada hari Rabu (09/09), Joko Widodo (dikenal dengan panggilan Jokowi) memberikan sejumlah detail mengenai fase pertama ini dalam sebuah pidato di Istana Negara di Jakarta.
Although immediately plunging 0.33 percent to IDR 11,478 per US dollar after its opening on Monday (10/03), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.57 percent to IDR 11,375 per US dollar by 14:00 local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index). The rupiah's performance today is in sharp contrast with other Asian currencies. As US nonfarm payrolls increased more than expected and Chinese exports fell sharply (18.1 percent year-on-year) in February 2014, the US dollar appreciated against most Asian currencies.
Indonesian Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa said that the government is currently engaged in preparing a third economic policy package that aims to reduce the country's current account deficit. In August and December 2013, the government had already implemented two policy reform packages as Indonesia's wide current account deficit and high inflation in combination with the looming end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program led to large capital outflows, thus resulting in sharp rupiah depreciation.
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