Indonesia akan gagal untuk mencapai target produksi batubaranya yaitu 425 juta ton di tahun 2015 karena para penambang batubara di negara ini telah memotong produksinya kira-kira 20%. Perusahaan-perusahaan pertambangan batubara domestik memotong hasil produksi batubara karena harga batubara yang terus-menerus rendah yang menyebabkan arus kas negatif bagi banyak penambang. Harga batubara global telah menurun karena kelebihan suplai dan permintaan global yang melemah akibat lambannya pertumbuhan ekonomi.

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The global coal industry is still plagued by pessimistic sentiment. Not only has the global supply glut in combination with sluggish global economic growth put serious pressure on coal prices (while China introduced stricter coal quality tests on thermal coal imports), but most countries are also placing more emphasize on cleaner energy sources, which further curtail demand for coal. Coal prices are currently heading for a decade-low with January 2016 coal futures now at USD $52.55 per metric ton on the ICE Futures Exchange.

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Ekspor batubara Indonesia diprediksi akan jatuh menjadi di bawah 300 juta ton di 2016 karena para penambang domestik memotong volume produksi batubara karena rendahnya harga batubara. Harga referensi batubara termal pada bulan Oktober di Indonesia (ditetapkan oleh Pemerintah) jatuh 1,4% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) menjadi 57,39 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton (FOB) dan kini ada pada level terendah dalam sejarah sejak harga referensi ini mulai ditetapkan pada Januari 2009. Sementara itu, harga batubara acuan global nyaris menyentuh level terendah dalam sembilan tahun terakhir.

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Indonesia’s October benchmark thermal coal reference price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) was set at USD $57.39 per metric ton (FOB) by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, down 1.4 percent (m/m) from the preceding month and down 14.7 percent (y/y) from the same month last year. The October coal price is now at an all-time record low since the start of the government’s reference price in January 2009.

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Harum Energy, one of Indonesia’s leading coal mining companies, aims to take advantage of the current weak state of the mining sector by acquiring other coal companies. President Director Ray Antonio Gunara said that Harum Energy, which is part of the Tanito Harum Group, set aside USD $390 million (USD $190 million from internal cash reserves and USD $200 million through a loan) to purchase other coal miners.

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Indonesia’s reference thermal coal price hit another all-time low. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set the September coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) at USD $58.21 per metric ton (FOB), down 1.6 percent from the August reference rate, and the fifth consecutive month of decline. Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter.

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The government of Indonesia lowered its coal production target for 2015 from 425 million tons to 400 million tons as most Indonesian coal miners have cut production targets amid low global demand and weak prices. Domestic coal demand has also reduced primarily due to lower demand from state-owned power company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN). In the first half of 2015, Indonesia (the world’s top thermal coal exporter) produced 204 million tons according to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.

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The government of Indonesia decided to postpone its plan to raise royalties for the country’s coal miners. Bambang Gatot, senior official at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said the government will not raise coal royalties yet given the sector’s current troubled climate (referring to low global coal prices). Indonesian coal miners will be happy to hear this news as they, especially the smaller-sized coal miners, are having difficulty to survive in the post-2000s commodities boom era.

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Conditions remain tough for Indonesian coal miners in the post-2000s commodity boom. Plagued by low global coal prices since 2008, Indonesian coal miners first raised production rates in order to maintain healthy balance sheets (hence exacerbating the supply glut and putting more downward pressure on coal prices). As this backfired, they then put in place more cost-efficient policies (such as curbing the stripping ratio) in an effort to safeguard profits. However, as prices continued to slide miners are now forced to limit production to survive.

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Pandu Sjahrir, Chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), said that Indonesia’s coal production could decline by 24 percent (y/y) in 2015 as the country’s coal miners have been cutting production volumes amid the world’s low coal prices. Reportedly, the free cash flow of various Indonesian coal miners have turned negative, meaning that generated cash from coal production cannot cover companies’ operational costs. In fact, the country’s coal miners are now eager to diversify to other businesses in order to stay alive.

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Many Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have seen their shares surge in the past couple of months supported by the recovering coal prices. Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, soared from USD $50.92 per metric ton in February 2016 to USD $63.93 per ton in September.

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Domestic coal consumption in Indonesia rose 34.5 percent (y/y) to 24.5 million tons in the January-April 2016 period, according to data from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. This growth is caused by higher domestic coal demand due to Indonesia's ambitious 35,000 MW program (many of the power plants constructed in this program are coal-fired). Meanwhile, Indonesia's coal exports were down 14 percent (y/y) to 68 million metric tons over the same period amid sluggish global demand.

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Adaro Energy, one of Indonesia's leading coal mining companies, is still plagued by the globe's weak coal prices. However, the company's estimated lower cash and operational costs give a positive boost to the miner's corporate earnings this year. According to Danareksa Sekuritas' estimates the cost of mining for Adaro Energy (outside royalty payments) will range between USD $26 - $28 per ton in 2016, slightly down from USD $28 per ton last year. Meanwhile, the miner's stripping ratio is expected to decline to 4.7x in 2016 (from 5.2x last year).

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State-controlled coal mining company Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam may be the only Indonesian coal producer that will post higher sales in 2016, both in terms of volume and revenue. The nation's other coal miners are expected to see further dropping coal sales due to sluggish global demand although coal prices may stabilize this year. According to Trimegah Securities Bukit Asam's coal sales volume will rise 25 percent (y/y) to 23.9 million tons in 2016, while revenue is estimated to rise 9 percent (y/y) to IDR 15 trillion (approx. USD $1.1 billion), and coal mining operational costs to fall by 3 percent (y/y) to USD $39.8 per ton.

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Coal production in Indonesia fell 15.4 percent to 263 million tons in the first eight months of 2015 (from 311 million tons in the same period last year) as Indonesian coal miners cut production due to low global coal demand. Last week it was reported that Indonesia’s reference thermal coal price hit another all-time low at USD $58.21 per metric ton (FOB), down 1.6 percent from the August reference rate, and the fifth consecutive month of decline. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s coal exports fell 18 percent to 211 million tons (y/y) in the January-August period.

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In the 2000s many Indonesian companies diversified their business to include coal mining (or shifting their core business to coal mining altogether) due to lucrative opportunities amid the 2000s commodities boom. However, since 2009 mining companies have had to face tough times. Especially since 2011 commodity prices have shown a declining trend and there remains little hope of a rebound on the short term as the sluggish global economic growth trend persists, particularly led by the economic slowdown in China.

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The government of Indonesia is eager to use current low coal prices as the context to push for consolidation in the country’s coal mining sector. Sudirman Said, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, announced that the government may revoke over 4,000 troubled mining licenses this month and install a better licensing system. Licenses that may be revoked are Mining Business Permits (IUPs), not the long-standing Coal Contracts of Work (PKP2B) that are held by companies such as Bumi Resources and Berau Coal Energy.

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On Monday (11/05), it was announced that the reference coal price of Indonesia declined 5.2 percent (month-on-month) to an all-time low of USD $61.08 per metric ton in May. This benchmark price, which is set by the government each month based on the average of four coal indexes (Indonesia Coal Index, Platts Index, New Castle Export Index and New Castle Global Coal Index), continued to plummet due to the coal oversupply in combination with weak global coal demand (particularly falling demand from China).

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The government of Indonesia plans to raise royalties for coal mining companies that hold a Mining Business Permit (Izin Usaha Pertambangan, abbreviated IUP) by revising Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue in a move to generate more state income. R. Sukhyar, Director General for Coal and Mineral Resources at the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said that the domestic coal industry remains a vital source of state income, particularly amid diminished mineral exports.

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Coal is one of the most important commodities for Indonesia in terms of state revenue as it accounts for about 85 percent of the country's total mining revenue. Therefore, when global coal prices fell sharply from 2011 (amid a slowing global economy), Indonesia felt the impact. In a response to lower coal prices, Indonesian miners actually increased coal output thus placing more downward pressure on coal prices and profit margins. Although the coal industry will remain frail for some time to come, long-term prospects are still strong.

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