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  • Trade Balance Indonesia: Big Monthly Trade Deficit in July 2018

    Adding more pressures onto the rupiah, Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Wednesday (15/08) that the country's trade balance deteriorated significantly. In July 2018 Indonesia had a USD $2.03 billion trade deficit, much bigger than had been expected by analysts (and constituting the widest monthly trade deficit in the past five years). The latest deficit was particularly attributed to rapidly rising imports into Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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  • Trade Balance Indonesia: $1.74 Billion Surplus in June 2018

    According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country's trade balance showed a USD $1.74 billion surplus in June 2018. It was a much bigger surplus than had been estimated by analysts, primarily caused by weaker import growth than had been predicted by analysts.

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  • Trade Balance Indonesia: $1.52 Billion Deficit in May 2018

    After a (revised) USD $1.63 billion trade deficit in April 2018, Indonesia posted another big trade deficit in the following month. In May 2018 Indonesia's trade deficit reached USD $1.52 billion, slightly lower from the deficit in the preceding month but still constituting a wider deficit than had been expected by analysts. Despite rising exports in May, a soaring crude oil price managed to put big pressures on Indonesia's trade balance.

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  • Indonesia Scraps Trade Ministry Regulation No. 82/2017 on National Shipping

    The Indonesian government scrapped Trade Ministry Regulation No. 82/2017 on the Terms of Use of National Shipping and Insurance Companies for the Export and Import of Certain Goods. This regulation, which was originally scheduled to be implemented in May 2018 (but its implementation had already been postponed), would have made it mandatory to use local vessels (owned by Indonesian sea shipping companies) for the export of coal, crude palm oil (CPO), and rice.

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  • Trade Balance Indonesia: $1.63 Billion Deficit in April 2018

    Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's trade balance showed a USD $1.63 billion deficit in April 2018. The deficit, which surprised most analysts' expectations, is the nation's biggest monthly trade deficit in four years (April 2014). While exports grew 9.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $14.47 billion, imports grew much more impressive - at a pace of 34.7 percent (y/y) - to USD $16.09 billion last month.

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  • Trade Balance Indonesia: $1.1 Billion Trade Surplus in March 2018

    Indonesia posted a surprising USD $1.1 billion trade surplus in March 2018, the country's largest trade surplus since October 2017 and effectively ending a three-month trade deficit streak. Suhariyanto, Head of Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS), told reporters at a press conference on Monday (16/04) that the trade surplus was caused by a USD $2.0 billion surplus in the non-oil & gas sector. The balance in the oil & gas sector, however, remained negative (showing a USD $924.5 million deficit in March).

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  • Bank Indonesia Expects Trade Surplus in March, Economists Predict Deficit

    The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects the nation’s trade balance to swing into surplus in March 2018, after recording two monthly trade deficits in January and February (USD $756 million and USD $116 million, respectively), as pressures from imports of raw materials and capital goods are seen sliding. Incumbent Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said a USD $1.1 billion surplus is possible in the third month of 2018, implying the trade balance would show a surplus, overall, in the first quarter of 2018.

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  • Indonesia's Economic Growth in Q3-2013 Expected to Fall below 5.8%

    The slowdown of Indonesia's economic growth is expected to continue into the third quarter of 2013. The Indonesian government predicts that economic growth will fall below the GDP growth figure realized in the second quarter (5.8 percent). Acting Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the main factor that causes the country's slowing economic growth in Q3-2013 is reduced household consumption. Domestic consumption in Indonesia accounts for about 55 percent of the country's GDP growth.

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  • World Bank: Logistics Costs Reduce Economic Potential of Indonesia

    In its most recent report regarding Indonesia's economy, the World Bank states that high logistic costs form a serious impediment to the country's economic growth. The report, titled Annual Logistics Report, is compiled by Bandung Institute of Technology’s Research Center for Logistics and Supply Chains, the Indonesian Logistics Association (ALI), the STC Group, Panteia Research Institute, and the World Bank Indonesia Office. The report provides an analysis and overview of the progress made in tackling the problem of logistics in Indonesia.

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  • Fitch Ratings: Major Indonesian Banks Resilient Against Market Turmoil

    According to global credit rating and research agency Fitch Ratings, Indonesia's major banks are robust against the rupiah currency slide due to their low unhedged foreign currency exposure, strong loss-absorption cushions and - in some cases - foreign ownership. The slowdown in the economy will weigh on these (rated) banks' operating environment, but is unlikely to damage their credit profiles to any great extent. Below we provide Fitch Ratings' report. This report can also be accessed on their website.

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  • High July Trade Deficit Causes Indonesia's Stock Index to Fall 2.23%

    Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) went down 2.23 percent on Monday (02/09) after Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released a number of macroeconomic data. The country's inflation pace increased to 8.79 percent year-on-year, while it posted a record monthly trade deficit in July 2013 (USD $2.31 billion). Investors have been highly concerned about the development of Indonesia's current account deficit and after it became known that the figure was high in July, the IHSG quickly lost value.

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  • Indonesian Government Revises State Budgets of 2013 and 2014

    The government of Indonesia has revised the macroeconomic assumptions that are stated in the State Budgets (APBN) of 2013 and 2014 after a meeting with the budgetary body of the House of Representatives (Badan Anggaran DPR) on Wednesday (28/08). It is the third time that the 2013 State Budget has been revised in order to put it more in line with recent global developments. As the government was also too optimistic when drafting the 2014 Budget, it felt the need for a revision (only 12 days after the announcement of the Budget).

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  • Current Account Deficit of Indonesia Expected to Ease to 2.5% of GDP

    Indonesia's current account deficit, which caused much alarm among the investor community, is expected to ease to about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second half of 2013. This assumption is supported by Indonesia's central bank and various analysts. The country's current account deficit reached USD $9.8 billion or 4.4 percent of GDP in Q2-2013. In combination with the weakening rupiah, higher inflation and the possible end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, investors have been pulling money out of Indonesia.

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  • Indonesian Government Releases 'Emergency Plan' to Support Economy

    As had been announced previously, today (23/08) the government of Indonesia released an 'emergency plan' that aims to improve the financial sector while restoring confidence in the country's fundamentals as turmoil emerged on Indonesia's stock exchange, bonds market and the rupiah. Economic minister Hatta Rajasa said that this plan consists of four packages. These four packages cover the current account deficit, rupiah performance, economic growth, purchasing power, inflation and investments.

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  • Indonesia's Main Stock Index (IHSG): the Ship that is Rocked by a Storm

    For several weeks now, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) has been experiencing a sharp correction. As I wrote in my previous columns, market participants have been waiting for several important macro economic data, to wit Indonesia's economic growth figure for the second quarter of 2013, the July 2013 inflation rate, and the country's trade balance statistics for the first six months of this year. Now all above results have been released, we can analyze further the impact of these macroeconomic results as well as investors' reaction to it.

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  • Indonesia's Foreign Exchange Reserves Fall, Current Account Deficit Grows

    The foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia keep on falling from its historical peak of USD $124.64 billion in August 2011 to USD $92.67 billion at the end of July 2013. This development seems to highlight long-standing weaknesses in Indonesia's sovereign's external finances, as credit agency Fitch Ratings detected on several occasions before. The republic of Indonesia is currently characterized by four deficits, to wit a current account deficit, a balance of payments deficit, a trade balance deficit and a fiscal deficit.

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  • Possible End to Quantitative Easing Will Impact on Emerging Economies

    Worldwide, most stock indices fell on Wednesday (07/08), particularly Japan's Nikkei index, after it has been speculated that the Federal Reserve may phase out the third round of its quantitative easing program in September 2013. This program, involving a monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying package, aims to spur US economic growth while keeping interest rates low. However, one important side effect has been rising stock markets around the globe. Now the end of QE3 is in sight, investors shy away from riskier assets.

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