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The government of Indonesia is preparing tenders for five mining areas. These mining areas were previously operated by listed miners Vale Indonesia and Timah under coal mining licenses (in Indonesian: Perjanjian Karya Pengusahaan Pertambangan Batubara, or PKP2B) and contracts of work (in Indonesian: Kontrak Karya, or KK).
Arizona-based mining giant Freeport-McMoRan finally reached an agreement with the Indonesian government regarding the extension of the permit to operate the Grasberg mine, the world's largest gold mine and third-largest copper mine, in Papua. Ignasius Jonan, Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister, said Freeport can per direct apply for a 10-year permit extension to mine at Grasberg beyond the year 2021. Afterwards, it can apply once more for a 10-year extension.
The management of gold and copper miner Freeport Indonesia is optimistic that negotiations with the central government will be completed before the Idul Fitri celebrations in the last week of June 2017. If an agreement is reached, then the case will not require arbitration. Both parties are negotiating over a contract dispute that also prompted the subsidiary of the United States-based mining giant Freeport-McMoRan to wind down operations (and fire staff) at its Grasberg mine in Papua.
The nickel price is expected to remain under pressure up to (at least) the second half of 2018 due to the structural oversupply in the world market. So far this year the nickel price has fallen 9.38 percent to USD $9,080 per ton (London Metal Exchange). Analysts of the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. say nickel - used in stainless steel - is the worst-performing metal so far this year.
Despite seeing a supply surplus in Asia, coal prices are expected to remain stable in the foreseeable future supported by expectations of Chinese intervention into domestic coal production. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal and therefore the main determinant of the coal price. On Friday (19/05), the Newcastle coal index (May 2017 contracts) rose 0.27 percent to USD $74.25 per ton.
Efforts of Indonesian authorities to clean up the nation's mineral and coal mining industries met resistance. Various local mining companies that saw their Mining Business Permit (in Indonesian: Izin Usaha Pertambangan, or IUP) being revoked by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry object to the government's move, despite authorities' claim that they are only revoking those permits of miners that have failed to obtain the mandatory clean and clear certificate (CnC).
Production of heavy equipment in Indonesia is targeted to grow 14 percent to 4,200 units in 2017, compared to 3,678 produced units in the preceding year. This growth should come on the back of rising activity in the nation's mining sector, particularly Indonesia's coal mining sector, in line with rising commodity prices.
The dispute between Freeport Indonesia and the Indonesian government may escalate now the former said it considers to seek international arbitration over the government's alleged breaching and violation of the existing Contract of Work (CoW) between both sides. Ever since the passing of Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining (New Mining Law) there has been a high degree of uncertainty in Indonesia's mining sector.
The government of Indonesia is nearing completion of the forming of holding companies for state-owned enterprises that are active in the oil & gas and mining sectors. It now only requires signing by Indonesian President Joko Widodo. Last year Widodo approved plans to create five state holding companies in energy, mining, construction, housing, and financial services. Fully state-owned aluminium producer Inalum and energy company Pertamina will be the holding companies for activities in the mining and oil & gas sectors, respectively.
A coalition of civil society groups is ready to challenge Indonesia's new mining rules at the Supreme Court next week, specifically those rules that impact negatively on the longstanding Contracts of Work (Kontrak Karya) as well as the (re-)opening of nickel ore and bauxite exports. Late last week, the Indonesian government announced to ease the controversial ban on exports of mineral ore. The government was immediately criticized for this "flip-flop policy". The move could flood global markets and put pressure on prices.
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Overall, low crude oil prices are problematic for stock markets as low prices indicate the world economy is not expanding on full throttle. This curbs investors' risk appetite. Particularly those companies that are active in the oil industry (or in related industries) will likely face declining share prices. However, there are also positive effects of low oil prices. For example consumers' purchasing power should improve because prices at the gas pump are lower, while some companies can curb operational costs. Hence, consumer and transportation stocks should actually benefit from low oil prices.
Reportedly, the government of Indonesia will hand Freeport Indonesia a temporary export permit for copper concentrate shipments, hence being able to bypass (for the moment) Indonesia's controversial ban on mineral ore exports. Freeport Indonesia, the local unit of US mining giant Freeport McMoRan, has been unable to export copper concentrate for the past three months, thus missing out on about USD $1 billion in revenue. Due to the drop in exports, mining activities at the Grasberg mine in Papua fell drastically, giving rise to concern about layoffs.
An interesting story was released on Bloomberg Markets Asia on Wednesday (29/03) about the sliding role of commodities in the Indonesian economy and the need for Southeast Asia's largest economy to find a new growth engine (or better: several new growth engines) that will take the country to economic growth levels of +7 percent year-on-year (y/y) as once pledged by Indonesian President Joko Widodo during his presidential campaign in 2014.
The Indonesian Mining Institute (IMI) is concerned about foreign perceptions of Indonesia's mining sector. According to the Fraser Institute, a Toronto-based public policy research and educational organization, Indonesia now ranks lowest in terms of the "state of the investment climate in the mining sector across the world". A new survey, conducted by the Canadian think-tank, shows that Indonesia's recently introduced government policies (stemming from the New Mining Law) that affect the activities in the mining sector has seriously undermined foreigners' confidence in a conducive investment climate in Indonesia's mining sector.
Uncertainty about the continuation of the company's copper concentrate exports could imply that Freeport Indonesia needs to terminate operations at the Grasberg mine in Papua. Currently, shipments of copper concentrate from the mine to the smelter in Gresik (East Java) have ceased, while the company's storage facilities are full to the brim. Part of workers at the Grasberg mine have been sent home as the processing plant has not been producing any concentrate since Friday (10/02).
State-controlled, yet listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, tin producer and exporter Timah is expected to experience improving corporate earnings in 2017 supported by recovering production volumes and the rising trend of global commodity prices. Danareksa Sekuritas expects the price of refined tin to rise 12.4 percent to USD $20,000 per ton this year, followed by a further rise to USD $21,000 per ton in 2018. Meanwhile, Danareksa Sekuritas also expects Timah's production volume to rise around 25 percent (y/y) to 28,000 tons this year (slightly below the company's target of 30,000 tons).
On Thursday (12/01) the government of Indonesia said it eased regulations concerning the controversial ban on exports of metal ore and concentrates of other minerals. Based on the New Mining Law that was revealed in 2009, Indonesian shipments of mineral ore would be banned starting from January 2014. This policy was designed in order to boost the development of domestic processing facilities (smelters) and become an exporter of value-added mining products (hence becoming less vulnerable to volatile prices of raw materials).
Chances are big that Freeport Indonesia will conduct an initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange to comply with the divestment requirement. Freeport Indonesia, the local unit of US-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, operates the vast Grasberg mine in Papua. This mine is the world's largest gold mine and third-largest copper mine. The Indonesian government's divestment requirement is one the demands for starting contract extension negotiations in 2019.
Because we have received quite some questions about Indonesia's cost recovery scheme in the oil and gas industry, we decided to devote an article to this topic. Simply put, the oil recovery scheme that the Indonesian government applies in the upstream oil and gas industry concerns the reimbursement of exploration and production costs to oil and gas contractors. This should make oil and gas exploration in Indonesia more attractive and thus stop the two-decade long decline in the nation's oil output.
Indonesia is currently discussing the revisions that need to be made to the 2009 Mining Law (Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining). As there is a lack of progress with the development of smelting (processing) facilities in Indonesia, authorities may decide to postpone the full implementation of the ban on exports of unprocessed mineral ore by five years. Initially, this ban was supposed to come into effect in January 2014. However, it was pushed back to 11 January 2017 to allow more time for smelter development in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
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